Dataset Viewer
id string | question string | category string | url string | market_prob float64 | oracle_prob float64 | edge float64 | confidence float64 | signal string | model string | backtest_acc float64 | auc float64 | modelability int64 | volume int64 | liquidity int64 | end_date timestamp[s] | captured_at string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3435332 | National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-jodar-fils-2026-08-11 | 0.575 | 0.5856 | 0.0106 | 0.8163 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 1,190,952 | 193,699 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649 | 0.425 | 0.4382 | 0.0132 | 0.8267 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 89 | 5,407,529 | 352,681 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3409541 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kai-and-speed-beat-the-minecraft-challenge-by-august-17-20260807213124706 | 0.185 | 0.1854 | 0.0004 | 0.7924 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 1,022,311 | 63,120 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664 | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.886 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 3,653,661 | 379,317 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2063134 | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-adanech-abiebie-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.7872 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 76,722,967 | 18,376 | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336170 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-bal-min-2026-08-10 | 0.0005 | 0.0461 | 0.0456 | 0.8386 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 656,003 | 302,344 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586 | 0.0165 | 0.0106 | -0.0059 | 0.9023 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 6,436,198 | 806,575 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615 | 0.555 | 0.5706 | 0.0156 | 0.816 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 89 | 5,795,691 | 342,529 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863 | 0.0085 | 0.01 | 0.0015 | 0.8874 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 3,130,917 | 393,106 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3128885 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-15-20260727171036148 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.9042 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 5,495,634 | 953,721 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3409360 | LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-lev-red-2026-08-10 | 0.9995 | 0.965 | -0.0345 | 0.8533 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 544,353 | 388,872 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
1163699 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 | 0.245 | 0.2463 | 0.0013 | 0.8232 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 5,993,981 | 298,232 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2772194 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-shakhtar-donetsk-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025578 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8649 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 3,530,879 | 247,144 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
1130020 | Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-yabloko-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.0045 | 0.01 | 0.0055 | 0.8695 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 851,480 | 276,557 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2774056 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320 | 0.0345 | 0.0361 | 0.0016 | 0.9067 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 11,524,170 | 1,076,821 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3463447 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-kc-lad-2026-08-10-total-7pt5 | 0.495 | 0.5122 | 0.0172 | 0.6103 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 368,029 | 14,382 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2937525 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-31-20260715194822045 | 0.935 | 0.9234 | -0.0116 | 0.78 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 7,925,299 | 88,710 | 2026-07-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2154920 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-gamestop-acquire-ebay | 0.085 | 0.0884 | 0.0034 | 0.8113 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 2,742,527 | 230,911 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336191 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-kc-lad-2026-08-10 | 0.32 | 0.3219 | 0.0019 | 0.7433 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 318,330 | 162,779 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3399415 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-10-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8264 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 540,611 | 63,861 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336176 | Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-col-ari-2026-08-10 | 0.022 | 0.0545 | 0.0325 | 0.7953 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 309,444 | 156,088 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
559701 | Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-josh-stein-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9042 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 946,312 | 1,858,388 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2910437 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676 | 0.105 | 0.1301 | 0.0251 | 0.7593 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 1,995,396 | 74,177 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3471032 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-fal2-k271-2026-08-12 | 0.825 | 0.8479 | 0.0229 | 0.7664 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 282,245 | 91,258 | 2026-08-12T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3370487 | LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-los-png1-2026-08-10-game1 | 0.9995 | 0.9899 | -0.0096 | 0.851 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 259,795 | 192,723 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3399416 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-11-2026 | 0.0075 | 0.01 | 0.0025 | 0.8273 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 386,778 | 55,210 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
559690 | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kim-kardashian-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9023 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 42,713,734 | 2,650,470 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336180 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-mil-sd-2026-08-10 | 0.625 | 0.6309 | 0.0059 | 0.8066 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 231,817 | 261,702 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3145767 | Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wnba-tor-atl-2026-08-10 | 0.0005 | 0.0211 | 0.0206 | 0.8536 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 220,214 | 366,677 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336172 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-phi-stl-2026-08-10 | 0.885 | 0.8694 | -0.0156 | 0.7894 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 218,637 | 121,567 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3470027 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-oak-2026-08-10-total-11pt5 | 0.225 | 0.2426 | 0.0176 | 0.7337 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 218,160 | 22,336 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
559685 | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeast-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.9005 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 40,867,320 | 2,695,385 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3463412 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tex-laa-2026-08-10-total-8pt5 | 0.225 | 0.2584 | 0.0334 | 0.7073 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 198,398 | 15,349 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3338654 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-60k-on-august-11-2026 | 0.997 | 0.99 | -0.007 | 0.7947 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 48 | 207,191 | 26,330 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3409325 | LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-lev-red-2026-08-10-game1 | 0.9995 | 0.9665 | -0.033 | 0.8431 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 191,891 | 425,455 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3468907 | Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-hou-sf-2026-08-10-total-8pt5 | 0.275 | 0.3006 | 0.0256 | 0.2025 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 187,746 | 832 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3402192 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/yabloko-effectively-banned-from-2026-russian-elections-by-september-17-20260807161302974 | 0.9685 | 0.9548 | -0.0137 | 0.8097 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 222,937 | 51,525 | 2026-09-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3145792 | Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wnba-chi-sea-2026-08-10 | 0.265 | 0.3117 | 0.0467 | 0.7503 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 177,811 | 159,782 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3471056 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-3dmax-2026-08-12 | 0.785 | 0.803 | 0.018 | 0.758 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 168,982 | 69,948 | 2026-08-13T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336178 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-oak-2026-08-10 | 0.375 | 0.4091 | 0.0341 | 0.7727 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 84 | 165,032 | 248,901 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336174 | Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tex-laa-2026-08-10 | 0.375 | 0.4016 | 0.0266 | 0.7729 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 157,383 | 189,411 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3463446 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-kc-lad-2026-08-10-spread-home-1pt5 | 0.425 | 0.4519 | 0.0269 | 0.6891 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 154,401 | 6,456 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2910438 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729 | 0.315 | 0.3523 | 0.0373 | 0.7425 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 992,507 | 88,810 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
601821 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-fernando-haddad-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8502 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 6,979,517 | 246,441 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3435281 | Brownsburg: Felix Balshaw vs Daniel Milavsky | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-balshaw-milavsk-2026-08-10 | 0.4345 | 0.4482 | 0.0137 | 0.7967 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 143,260 | 243,092 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2507618 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-august-31 | 0.0185 | 0.0128 | -0.0057 | 0.8329 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 4,426,440 | 181,573 | 2026-06-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3468890 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-oak-2026-08-10-spread-away-1pt5 | 0.245 | 0.2751 | 0.0301 | 0.7226 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 134,397 | 30,734 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2952488 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-15-20260716224448969-246-815-987-693 | 0.9665 | 0.9727 | 0.0062 | 0.8256 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 1,563,179 | 87,179 | 2026-08-15T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3231771 | Trump out as President by August 31? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-august-31-20260730185655928 | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.8616 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 1,066,318 | 353,480 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3399417 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-12-2026 | 0.0185 | 0.0162 | -0.0023 | 0.8054 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 175,021 | 54,051 | 2026-08-12T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3399426 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-13-2026 | 0.0315 | 0.0294 | -0.0021 | 0.7551 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 150,097 | 50,012 | 2026-08-13T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
601829 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-camilo-santana-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8594 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 4,745,512 | 394,362 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-14-2026 | 0.065 | 0.0655 | 0.0005 | 0.7534 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 164,272 | 35,045 | 2026-08-14T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3176972 | Will Goiás EC win on 2026-08-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/bra2-goi-lon-2026-08-10-goi | 0.9995 | 0.9677 | -0.0318 | 0.8168 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 108,433 | 190,138 | 2026-08-10T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3470026 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-tb-oak-2026-08-10-total-9pt5 | 0.405 | 0.4287 | 0.0237 | 0.7547 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 107,940 | 98,763 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3338690 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-august-11-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8032 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 124,424 | 44,863 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3470029 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-mil-sd-2026-08-10-total-7pt5 | 0.425 | 0.4437 | 0.0187 | 0.7552 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 101,202 | 84,959 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3370489 | LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-los-png1-2026-08-10 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8427 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 106,916 | 230,024 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3338681 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-66k-on-august-11-2026 | 0.0125 | 0.0248 | 0.0123 | 0.8027 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 109,791 | 50,912 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3128786 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-9-20260727170733638 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.827 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 2,308,444 | 124,353 | 2026-08-09T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3310013 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-wti-reach-85-in-august-2026 | 0.69 | 0.6857 | -0.0043 | 0.6714 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 513,599 | 18,816 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3005947 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-by-august-31-2026-20260720155238428 | 0.085 | 0.0824 | -0.0026 | 0.6109 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 169,412 | 17,488 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2243309 | Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-toronto-raptors-win-the-2027-nba-finals | 0.0375 | 0.0327 | -0.0048 | 0.8658 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 352,826 | 514,715 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3435291 | Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-blanche-sakamot-2026-08-10 | 0.6 | 0.5881 | -0.0119 | 0.7208 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 89,203 | 195,449 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3370488 | LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-los-png1-2026-08-10-game2 | 0.9995 | 0.9899 | -0.0096 | 0.8381 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 85,941 | 209,200 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2937526 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046 | 0.945 | 0.94 | -0.005 | 0.7759 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 1,361,897 | 128,116 | 2026-08-14T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3370491 | Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-los-png1-2026-08-10-game-handicap-away-1pt5 | 0.9995 | 0.9759 | -0.0236 | 0.8194 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 81,745 | 178,932 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2832147 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-count-binface-win-the-clacton-by-election-20260707211451133 | 0.0085 | 0.01 | 0.0015 | 0.8488 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 2,580,207 | 241,274 | 2026-08-13T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3253771 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-240-259 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8046 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 169,171 | 56,013 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3096416 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-wti-dip-to-60-in-august-2026 | 0.016 | 0.0133 | -0.0027 | 0.8135 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 483,269 | 206,531 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3253754 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-160-179 | 0.585 | 0.5536 | -0.0314 | 0.6992 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 79 | 189,455 | 16,932 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
665374 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 | 0.165 | 0.1676 | 0.0026 | 0.8298 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 57,961,715 | 1,059,964 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3342074 | Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ishowspeed-attend-cristiano-ronaldos-wedding-20260803185630256 | 0.054 | 0.0493 | -0.0047 | 0.7807 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 481,473 | 22,592 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2774057 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440 | 0.145 | 0.1541 | 0.0091 | 0.8012 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 2,594,902 | 438,424 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
1130012 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.655 | 0.6739 | 0.0189 | 0.7783 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 6,543,829 | 259,676 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3253764 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-200-219 | 0.0215 | 0.0454 | 0.0239 | 0.7663 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 165,750 | 22,023 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3474241 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-68k-on-august-10 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.7704 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 46 | 71,969 | 14,545 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2937527 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047 | 0.945 | 0.9501 | 0.0051 | 0.7705 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 1,594,093 | 111,031 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2176270 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 | 0.465 | 0.4901 | 0.0251 | 0.7783 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 85 | 7,643,413 | 345,043 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3336189 | Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-hou-sf-2026-08-10 | 0.495 | 0.5221 | 0.0271 | 0.5507 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 68,618 | 4,761 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3472294 | Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-col-ari-2026-08-10-spread-home-1pt5 | 0.9665 | 0.9416 | -0.0249 | 0.6097 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 67,859 | 23,281 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
908713 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | 0.585 | 0.6041 | 0.0191 | 0.776 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 81 | 7,068,324 | 252,578 | 2026-12-09T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3338665 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-62k-on-august-11-2026 | 0.9825 | 0.99 | 0.0075 | 0.7901 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 48 | 86,863 | 31,306 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3477085 | ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/itf-sel-verwerf-2026-08-10 | 0.505 | 0.5214 | 0.0164 | 0.7447 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 64,947 | 64,193 | 2026-08-17T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
1130014 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-just-russia-for-truth-srzp-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8451 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 1,325,995 | 300,144 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
682705 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel | 0.325 | 0.3345 | 0.0095 | 0.7724 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 2,807,469 | 154,152 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3494075 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-hle1-dnf-2026-08-11 | 0.765 | 0.7844 | 0.0194 | 0.7753 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 61,529 | 259,481 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2413329 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-ipo-by-september-30-2026-733 | 0.175 | 0.1626 | -0.0124 | 0.7106 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 408,016 | 14,134 | 2027-07-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3409540 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-kai-and-speed-beat-the-minecraft-challenge-by-august-16-20260807213124705 | 0.11 | 0.1105 | 0.0005 | 0.6665 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 93,822 | 16,680 | 2026-08-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3409363 | Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-lev-red-2026-08-10-game-handicap-home-1pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.0551 | 0.0546 | 0.7819 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 67,773 | 162,293 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3449326 | Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-by-august-14-2026-20260809090411471 | 0.997 | 0.99 | -0.007 | 0.7916 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 62 | 58,681 | 44,517 | 2026-08-14T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
1130017 | Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-rodina-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8196 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 50 | 2,288,697 | 111,699 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3253768 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-4-august-11-220-239 | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.7805 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 143,216 | 22,887 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3474245 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-67k-on-august-10 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.7738 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 46 | 56,658 | 19,049 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2995866 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/iran-invades-kuwait-by-august-31-20260720015031546 | 0.013 | 0.01 | -0.003 | 0.8309 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 759,182 | 192,163 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
559657 | Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-stephen-a-smith-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-914 | 0.0045 | 0.01 | 0.0055 | 0.8818 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 21,578,646 | 1,325,227 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3338541 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-1700-on-august-11-2026 | 0.9985 | 0.99 | -0.0085 | 0.7743 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 46 | 55,388 | 18,995 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3176977 | Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-08-10? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/chi1-aci-cdu-2026-08-10-cdu | 0.0005 | 0.0452 | 0.0447 | 0.7848 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 54,560 | 126,800 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
3257393 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-reach-2000-in-august-2026 | 0.535 | 0.5706 | 0.0356 | 0.7099 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 82 | 135,217 | 37,511 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
2633429 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-august-18-2026-20260621201255153 | 0.0045 | 0.01 | 0.0055 | 0.8459 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 2,340,359 | 311,299 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-11T02:55:44.038Z |
THE ORACLE — Polymarket predictions
Live predictions for Polymarket markets, produced by THE ORACLE — an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun creator fees. Each row is a baseline-model forecast over live orderbook signals (momentum, microstructure, liquidity).
predictions.json/predictions.csv— 100 markets, refreshed each agent cycle.- Columns: question, category, market_prob, oracle_prob, edge, confidence, signal, model, backtest_acc, auc, modelability, volume, liquidity, end_date, captured_at.
Not financial advice.
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