Daily Papers

The proliferation of Machine Learning (ML) models and their open-source implementations has transformed Artificial Intelligence research and applications. Platforms like Hugging Face (HF) enable the development, sharing, and deployment of these models, fostering an evolving ecosystem. While previous studies have examined aspects of models hosted on platforms like HF, a comprehensive longitudinal study of how these models change remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by utilizing both repository mining and longitudinal analysis methods to examine over 200,000 commits and 1,200 releases from over 50,000 models on HF. We replicate and extend an ML change taxonomy for classifying commits and utilize Bayesian networks to uncover patterns in commit and release activities over time. Our findings indicate that commit activities align with established data science methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, emphasizing iterative refinement and continuous improvement. Additionally, release patterns tend to consolidate significant updates, particularly in documentation, distinguishing between granular changes and milestone-based releases. Furthermore, projects with higher popularity prioritize infrastructure enhancements early in their lifecycle, and those with intensive collaboration practices exhibit improved documentation standards. These and other insights enhance the understanding of model changes on community platforms and provide valuable guidance for best practices in model maintenance.

Multiple-choice questions (MCQs) are a standard format for evaluating large language models (LLMs), yet the popularity of answer options can confound evaluation. Modern LLMs systematically prefer popular but incorrect options over less popular correct ones, a vulnerability we call popularity bias. This pattern aligns with confidence miscalibration: model confidence remains high even as accuracy collapses for popular options. To systematically isolate this phenomenon, we introduce PopMCQ, a benchmark with six controlled strategies that vary option popularity while keeping the correct answer fixed. In our most adversarial setting, where all distractors are more popular than the correct option, models choose popular but wrong answers 66\% of the time. To mitigate this bias, we propose PopDebias, a lightweight inference-time correction that estimates and removes a popularity prior from model predictions. It requires no fine-tuning, is label-free at test time (using only a small calibration split for parameter fitting), and adds negligible computational cost. Experiments on 22 open-source LLMs (0.5B to 32B parameters) show consistent improvements, with accuracy gains up to 54.1 percentage points under strong popularity pressure. The code and data are available https://github.com/DataScienceUIBK/PopMCQ

The popularity of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has propelled its application to diverse downstream vision tasks. To improve its capacity on downstream tasks, few-shot learning has become a widely-adopted technique. However, existing methods either exhibit limited performance or suffer from excessive learnable parameters. In this paper, we propose APE, an Adaptive Prior rEfinement method for CLIP's pre-trained knowledge, which achieves superior accuracy with high computational efficiency. Via a prior refinement module, we analyze the inter-class disparity in the downstream data and decouple the domain-specific knowledge from the CLIP-extracted cache model. On top of that, we introduce two model variants, a training-free APE and a training-required APE-T. We explore the trilateral affinities between the test image, prior cache model, and textual representations, and only enable a lightweight category-residual module to be trained. For the average accuracy over 11 benchmarks, both APE and APE-T attain state-of-the-art and respectively outperform the second-best by +1.59% and +1.99% under 16 shots with x30 less learnable parameters.

Recent works on plug-and-play image restoration have shown that a denoiser can implicitly serve as the image prior for model-based methods to solve many inverse problems. Such a property induces considerable advantages for plug-and-play image restoration (e.g., integrating the flexibility of model-based method and effectiveness of learning-based methods) when the denoiser is discriminatively learned via deep convolutional neural network (CNN) with large modeling capacity. However, while deeper and larger CNN models are rapidly gaining popularity, existing plug-and-play image restoration hinders its performance due to the lack of suitable denoiser prior. In order to push the limits of plug-and-play image restoration, we set up a benchmark deep denoiser prior by training a highly flexible and effective CNN denoiser. We then plug the deep denoiser prior as a modular part into a half quadratic splitting based iterative algorithm to solve various image restoration problems. We, meanwhile, provide a thorough analysis of parameter setting, intermediate results and empirical convergence to better understand the working mechanism. Experimental results on three representative image restoration tasks, including deblurring, super-resolution and demosaicing, demonstrate that the proposed plug-and-play image restoration with deep denoiser prior not only significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art model-based methods but also achieves competitive or even superior performance against state-of-the-art learning-based methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/cszn/DPIR.

Large-scale diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating high-quality images from textual descriptions, gaining popularity across various applications. However, the generation of layered content, such as transparent images with foreground and background layers, remains an under-explored area. Layered content generation is crucial for creative workflows in fields like graphic design, animation, and digital art, where layer-based approaches are fundamental for flexible editing and composition. In this paper, we propose a novel image generation pipeline based on Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) that generates images with two layers: a foreground layer (RGBA) with transparency information and a background layer (RGB). Unlike existing methods that generate these layers sequentially, our approach introduces a harmonized generation mechanism that enables dynamic interactions between the layers for more coherent outputs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments, showing significant improvements in visual coherence, image quality, and layer consistency compared to baseline methods.

Information retrieval methods often rely on a single embedding model trained on large, general-domain datasets like MSMARCO. While this approach can produce a retriever with reasonable overall performance, models trained on domain-specific data often yield better results within their respective domains. While prior work in information retrieval has tackled this through multi-task training, the topic of combining multiple domain-specific expert retrievers remains unexplored, despite its popularity in language model generation. In this work, we introduce RouterRetriever, a retrieval model that leverages multiple domain-specific experts along with a routing mechanism to select the most appropriate expert for each query. It is lightweight and allows easy addition or removal of experts without additional training. Evaluation on the BEIR benchmark demonstrates that RouterRetriever outperforms both MSMARCO-trained (+2.1 absolute nDCG@10) and multi-task trained (+3.2) models. This is achieved by employing our routing mechanism, which surpasses other routing techniques (+1.8 on average) commonly used in language modeling. Furthermore, the benefit generalizes well to other datasets, even in the absence of a specific expert on the dataset. To our knowledge, RouterRetriever is the first work to demonstrate the advantages of using multiple domain-specific expert embedding models with effective routing over a single, general-purpose embedding model in retrieval tasks.

Multimodal entity linking grounds entity mentions in text and images to knowledge-base entries. These systems degrade on rare entities, but prior work measures rarity primarily through popularity-based metrics such as pageviews. We broaden this view using knowledge-graph structural metrics that capture how well an entity is documented and connected. These metrics identify many rare entities that popularity metrics miss. Across the resulting rare-entity slices, state-of-the-art accuracy drops by 15.4-39.9%, showing that different rarity definitions expose different failure modes. To address these failures, we introduce a simple, training-free framework in which a reasoning-capable vision-language model iteratively searches and reasons over Wikipedia, gathering evidence dynamically. Controlled experiments show that reasoning and retrieval are complementary. Reasoning alone does not significantly improve accuracy on rare entities. Retrieval without reasoning improves rare-entity accuracy but can hurt overall accuracy. Their combination performs best. On MERLIN, a multilingual multimodal entity linking benchmark over five languages (Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Tamil, Vietnamese), our best system improves over the state of the art by 6.9% overall and by up to 23.3% on rare-entity slices. We release MERLIN-Rare, rare-entity test slices for targeted evaluation, with our framework.

Generative recommender systems have recently attracted attention by formulating next-item prediction as an autoregressive sequence generation task. However, most existing methods optimize standard next-token likelihood and implicitly treat all tokens as equally informative, which is misaligned with semantic-ID-based generation. Accordingly, we propose two complementary information-gain-based token-weighting strategies tailored to generative recommendation with semantic IDs. Front-Greater Weighting captures conditional semantic information gain by prioritizing early tokens that most effectively reduce candidate-item uncertainty given their prefixes and encode coarse semantics. Frequency Weighting models marginal information gain under long-tailed item and token distributions, upweighting rare tokens to counteract popularity bias. Beyond individual strategies, we introduce a multi-target learning framework with curriculum learning that jointly optimizes the two token-weighted objectives alongside standard likelihood, enabling stable optimization and adaptive emphasis across training stages. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines and existing token-weighting approaches, with improved robustness, strong generalization across different semantic-ID constructions, and substantial gains on both head and tail items. Code is available at https://github.com/CHIUWEINING/Token-Weighted-Multi-Target-Learning-for-Generative-Recommenders-with-Curriculum-Learning.

As the focus on Large Language Models (LLMs) in the field of recommendation intensifies, the optimization of LLMs for recommendation purposes (referred to as LLM4Rec) assumes a crucial role in augmenting their effectiveness in providing recommendations. However, existing approaches for LLM4Rec often assess performance using restricted sets of candidates, which may not accurately reflect the models' overall ranking capabilities. In this paper, our objective is to investigate the comprehensive ranking capacity of LLMs and propose a two-step grounding framework known as BIGRec (Bi-step Grounding Paradigm for Recommendation). It initially grounds LLMs to the recommendation space by fine-tuning them to generate meaningful tokens for items and subsequently identifies appropriate actual items that correspond to the generated tokens. By conducting extensive experiments on two datasets, we substantiate the superior performance, capacity for handling few-shot scenarios, and versatility across multiple domains exhibited by BIGRec. Furthermore, we observe that the marginal benefits derived from increasing the quantity of training samples are modest for BIGRec, implying that LLMs possess the limited capability to assimilate statistical information, such as popularity and collaborative filtering, due to their robust semantic priors. These findings also underline the efficacy of integrating diverse statistical information into the LLM4Rec framework, thereby pointing towards a potential avenue for future research. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/SAI990323/Grounding4Rec.

Social media popularity prediction task aims to predict the popularity of posts on social media platforms, which has a positive driving effect on application scenarios such as content optimization, digital marketing and online advertising. Though many studies have made significant progress, few of them pay much attention to the integration between popularity prediction with temporal alignment. In this paper, with exploring YouTube's multilingual and multi-modal content, we construct a new social media temporal popularity prediction benchmark, namely SMTPD, and suggest a baseline framework for temporal popularity prediction. Through data analysis and experiments, we verify that temporal alignment and early popularity play crucial roles in social media popularity prediction for not only deepening the understanding of temporal dynamics of popularity in social media but also offering a suggestion about developing more effective prediction models in this field. Code is available at https://github.com/zhuwei321/SMTPD.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

Recommender systems learn from historical user-item interactions to identify preferred items for target users. These observed interactions are usually unbalanced following a long-tailed distribution. Such long-tailed data lead to popularity bias to recommend popular but not personalized items to users. We present a gradient perspective to understand two negative impacts of popularity bias in recommendation model optimization: (i) the gradient direction of popular item embeddings is closer to that of positive interactions, and (ii) the magnitude of positive gradient for popular items are much greater than that of unpopular items. To address these issues, we propose a simple yet efficient framework to mitigate popularity bias from a gradient perspective. Specifically, we first normalize each user embedding and record accumulated gradients of users and items via popularity bias measures in model training. To address the popularity bias issues, we develop a gradient-based embedding adjustment approach used in model testing. This strategy is generic, model-agnostic, and can be seamlessly integrated into most existing recommender systems. Our extensive experiments on two classic recommendation models and four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method over state-of-the-art debiasing baselines.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been recently proposed to generate high-quality samples by estimating the gradient of the data density. The framework defines the prior noise as a standard Gaussian distribution, whereas the corresponding data distribution may be more complicated than the standard Gaussian distribution, which potentially introduces inefficiency in denoising the prior noise into the data sample because of the discrepancy between the data and the prior. In this paper, we propose PriorGrad to improve the efficiency of the conditional diffusion model for speech synthesis (for example, a vocoder using a mel-spectrogram as the condition) by applying an adaptive prior derived from the data statistics based on the conditional information. We formulate the training and sampling procedures of PriorGrad and demonstrate the advantages of an adaptive prior through a theoretical analysis. Focusing on the speech synthesis domain, we consider the recently proposed diffusion-based speech generative models based on both the spectral and time domains and show that PriorGrad achieves faster convergence and inference with superior performance, leading to an improved perceptual quality and robustness to a smaller network capacity, and thereby demonstrating the efficiency of a data-dependent adaptive prior.

Priors are essential for reconstructing images from noisy and/or incomplete measurements. The choice of the prior determines both the quality and uncertainty of recovered images. We propose turning score-based diffusion models into principled image priors ("score-based priors") for analyzing a posterior of images given measurements. Previously, probabilistic priors were limited to handcrafted regularizers and simple distributions. In this work, we empirically validate the theoretically-proven probability function of a score-based diffusion model. We show how to sample from resulting posteriors by using this probability function for variational inference. Our results, including experiments on denoising, deblurring, and interferometric imaging, suggest that score-based priors enable principled inference with a sophisticated, data-driven image prior.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Optimizing recommender systems for objectives beyond accuracy, such as diversity, novelty, and personalization, is crucial for long-term user satisfaction. To this end, industrial practitioners have accumulated vast amounts of structured domain knowledge, which we term human priors (e.g., item taxonomies, temporal patterns). This knowledge is typically applied through post-hoc adjustments during ranking or post-ranking. However, this approach remains decoupled from the core model learning, which is particularly undesirable as the industry shifts to end-to-end generative recommendation foundation models. On the other hand, many methods targeting these beyond-accuracy objectives often require architecture-specific modifications and discard these valuable human priors by learning user intent in a fully unsupervised manner. Instead of discarding the human priors accumulated over years of practice, we introduce a backbone-agnostic framework that seamlessly integrates these human priors directly into the end-to-end training of generative recommenders. With lightweight, prior-conditioned adapter heads inspired by efficient LLM decoding strategies, our approach guides the model to disentangle user intent along human-understandable axes (e.g., interaction types, long- vs. short-term interests). We also introduce a hierarchical composition strategy for modeling complex interactions across different prior types. Extensive experiments on three large-scale datasets demonstrate that our method significantly enhances both accuracy and beyond-accuracy objectives. We also show that human priors allow the backbone model to more effectively leverage longer context lengths and larger model sizes.

Population-level behavior in large-language-model (LLM) agents cannot be characterized by single-agent benchmarks. We introduce PV-SST, a peer-voted social-platform testbed, and report a separately frozen, preregistered matched-exposure experiment spanning four topics, four unused seeds, four open-weight model families, and three prespecified larger variants. The experiment comprises 448 trials and 112 complete model-by-topic-by-seed blocks. Relative to a topic-only control, a feed of previous-round peer posts ranked by peer-generated likes increases final-round lexical similarity in both the four-family core panel (paired mean difference +0.0082 TF-IDF cosine units, 95% block-bootstrap CI [0.0043, 0.0121], randomization p=0.000105, n=64 blocks) and the three-variant size extension (+0.0109 [0.0069, 0.0151], p=0.000001, n=48). This contrast bundles peer-post exposure with ranking and therefore does not identify a ranking-only effect. Opposite-side survival falls in the core panel (-3.9 percentage points [-6.8, -1.6], p=0.0068) but not conclusively in the larger variants (-1.0 pp [-3.1, 0.4], p=0.50). Holding adversarial impressions fixed, four distributed sources do not reliably move honest-agent stance more than one source. The preregistered distributed-minus-single contrast is positive but inconclusive in the core panel (+0.057 [-0.009, 0.125], p=0.112) and negative in the larger variants (-0.040 [-0.113, 0.035], p=0.332), failing the prespecified cross-model and cross-topic consistency criterion. Thus the robust result is lexical convergence under the tested peer-ranked feed, not general opinion capture or a general coordination advantage. The study evaluates synthetic LLM-agent populations; it does not estimate effects on people or production platforms.

In this study, we propose a novel graph-based approach to model, analyze and comprehend user interactions within a social media platform based on post-comment relationship. We construct a user interaction graph from social media data and analyze it to gain insights into community dynamics, user behavior, and content preferences. Our investigation reveals that while 56.05% of the active users are strongly connected within the community, only 0.8% of them significantly contribute to its dynamics. Moreover, we observe temporal variations in community activity, with certain periods experiencing heightened engagement. Additionally, our findings highlight a correlation between user activity and popularity showing that more active users are generally more popular. Alongside these, a preference for positive and informative content is also observed where 82.41% users preferred positive and informative content. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing online communities, leveraging graph-based techniques to gain valuable insights into user behavior and community dynamics.

Recent popularity surrounds large AI language models due to their impressive natural language capabilities. They contribute significantly to language-related tasks, including prompt-based learning, making them valuable for various specific tasks. This approach unlocks their full potential, enhancing precision and generalization. Research communities are actively exploring their applications, with ChatGPT receiving recognition. Despite extensive research on large language models, their potential in recommendation scenarios still needs to be explored. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating ChatGPT's capabilities as a zero-shot recommender system. Our goals include evaluating its ability to use user preferences for recommendations, reordering existing recommendation lists, leveraging information from similar users, and handling cold-start situations. We assess ChatGPT's performance through comprehensive experiments using three datasets (MovieLens Small, Last.FM, and Facebook Book). We compare ChatGPT's performance against standard recommendation algorithms and other large language models, such as GPT-3.5 and PaLM-2. To measure recommendation effectiveness, we employ widely-used evaluation metrics like Mean Average Precision (MAP), Recall, Precision, F1, normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (nDCG), Item Coverage, Expected Popularity Complement (EPC), Average Coverage of Long Tail (ACLT), Average Recommendation Popularity (ARP), and Popularity-based Ranking-based Equal Opportunity (PopREO). Through thoroughly exploring ChatGPT's abilities in recommender systems, our study aims to contribute to the growing body of research on the versatility and potential applications of large language models. Our experiment code is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/sisinflab/Recommender-ChatGPT

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful class of generative models, capable of producing high-quality images by mapping noise to a data distribution. However, recent findings suggest that image likelihood does not align with perceptual quality: high-likelihood samples tend to be smooth, while lower-likelihood ones are more detailed. Controlling sample density is thus crucial for balancing realism and detail. In this paper, we analyze an existing technique, Prior Guidance, which scales the latent code to influence image detail. We introduce score alignment, a condition that explains why this method works and show that it can be tractably checked for any continuous normalizing flow model. We then propose Density Guidance, a principled modification of the generative ODE that enables exact log-density control during sampling. Finally, we extend Density Guidance to stochastic sampling, ensuring precise log-density control while allowing controlled variation in structure or fine details. Our experiments demonstrate that these techniques provide fine-grained control over image detail without compromising sample quality.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Although recent years have witnessed significant advancements in image editing thanks to the remarkable progress of text-to-image diffusion models, the problem of non-rigid image editing still presents its complexities and challenges. Existing methods often fail to achieve consistent results due to the absence of unique identity characteristics. Thus, learning a personalized identity prior might help with consistency in the edited results. In this paper, we explore a novel task: learning the personalized identity prior for text-based non-rigid image editing. To address the problems in jointly learning prior and editing the image, we present LIPE, a two-stage framework designed to customize the generative model utilizing a limited set of images of the same subject, and subsequently employ the model with learned prior for non-rigid image editing. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages of our approach in various editing scenarios over past related leading methods in qualitative and quantitative ways.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

The pre-ranking stage in industrial recommendation systems faces a fundamental conflict between efficiency and effectiveness. While powerful models like Target Attention (TA) excel at capturing complex feature interactions in the ranking stage, their high computational cost makes them infeasible for pre-ranking, which often relies on simplistic vector-product models. This disparity creates a significant performance bottleneck for the entire system. To bridge this gap, we propose TARQ, a novel pre-ranking framework. Inspired by generative models, TARQ's key innovation is to equip pre-ranking with an architecture approximate to TA by Residual Quantization. This allows us to bring the modeling power of TA into the latency-critical pre-ranking stage for the first time, establishing a new state-of-the-art trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Extensive offline experiments and large-scale online A/B tests at Taobao demonstrate TARQ's significant improvements in ranking performance. Consequently, our model has been fully deployed in production, serving tens of millions of daily active users and yielding substantial business improvements. The code and data are available at https://github.com/zyody/tarq_sigir2026.

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and the choice of these priors has an uncontrolled effect on the induced functional prior, which is the distribution of the functions obtained by sampling the parameters from their prior distribution. We argue that this is a hugely limiting aspect of Bayesian deep learning, and this work tackles this limitation in a practical and effective way. Our proposal is to reason in terms of functional priors, which are easier to elicit, and to "tune" the priors of neural network parameters in a way that they reflect such functional priors. Gaussian processes offer a rigorous framework to define prior distributions over functions, and we propose a novel and robust framework to match their prior with the functional prior of neural networks based on the minimization of their Wasserstein distance. We provide vast experimental evidence that coupling these priors with scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling offers systematically large performance improvements over alternative choices of priors and state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches. We consider this work a considerable step in the direction of making the long-standing challenge of carrying out a fully Bayesian treatment of neural networks, including convolutional neural networks, a concrete possibility.

In standard large vision-language models (LVLMs) pre-training, the model typically maximizes the joint probability of the caption conditioned on the image via next-token prediction (NTP); however, since only a small subset of caption tokens directly relates to the visual content, this naive NTP unintentionally fits the model to noise and increases the risk of hallucination. We present PRIOR, a simple vision-language pre-training approach that addresses this issue by prioritizing image-related tokens through differential weighting in the NTP loss, drawing from the importance sampling framework. PRIOR introduces a reference model-a text-only large language model (LLM) trained on the captions without image inputs, to weight each token based on its probability for LVLMs training. Intuitively, tokens that are directly related to the visual inputs are harder to predict without the image and thus receive lower probabilities from the text-only reference LLM. During training, we implement a token-specific re-weighting term based on the importance scores to adjust each token's loss. We implement PRIOR in two distinct settings: LVLMs with visual encoders and LVLMs without visual encoders. We observe 19% and 8% average relative improvement, respectively, on several vision-language benchmarks compared to NTP. In addition, PRIOR exhibits superior scaling properties, as demonstrated by significantly higher scaling coefficients, indicating greater potential for performance gains compared to NTP given increasing compute and data.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Pass@k is widely used to report the reasoning performance of LLMs, but it often produces unstable and potentially misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and computational resources are constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass@k and average accuracy over N trials (avg@N) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass@1), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the posterior-based procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass@k and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass@k for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Source code is available at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree structure. The resulting prior distribution is compellingly geared toward sparsity, a critical feature considering BART models' tendency to overfit. Our method incorporates prior knowledge into the distribution via two parameters that govern the tree's depth and balance between its left and right branches. Additionally, we propose a default calibration for these parameters, offering an objective version of the prior. We demonstrate our method's efficacy on both simulated and real datasets.

With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty and prior information into the analysis of the replication attempt by their design. The Replication Bayes Factor, introduced by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014), provides quantitative, relative evidence in favor or against a successful replication. In previous work by Verhagen & Wagenmakers (2014) it was limited to the case of t-tests. In this paper, the Replication Bayes Factor is extended to F-tests in multi-group, fixed-effect ANOVA designs. Simulations and examples are presented to facilitate the understanding and to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach. Finally, the Replication Bayes Factor is compared to other Bayesian and frequentist approaches and discussed in the context of replication attempts. R code to calculate Replication Bayes factors and to reproduce the examples in the paper is available at https://osf.io/jv39h/.

With the massive surge in ML models on platforms like Hugging Face, users often lose track and struggle to choose the best model for their downstream tasks, frequently relying on model popularity indicated by download counts, likes, or recency. We investigate whether this popularity aligns with actual model performance and how the comprehensiveness of model documentation correlates with both popularity and performance. In our study, we evaluated a comprehensive set of 500 Sentiment Analysis models on Hugging Face. This evaluation involved massive annotation efforts, with human annotators completing nearly 80,000 annotations, alongside extensive model training and evaluation. Our findings reveal that model popularity does not necessarily correlate with performance. Additionally, we identify critical inconsistencies in model card reporting: approximately 80\% of the models analyzed lack detailed information about the model, training, and evaluation processes. Furthermore, about 88\% of model authors overstate their models' performance in the model cards. Based on our findings, we provide a checklist of guidelines for users to choose good models for downstream tasks.

Many studies explore how people 'come into' misinformation exposure. But much less is known about how people 'come out of' misinformation exposure. Do people organically sever ties to misinformation spreaders? And what predicts doing so? Over six months, we tracked the frequency and predictors of ~1M followers unfollowing ~5K health misinformation spreaders on Twitter. We found that misinformation ties are persistent. Monthly unfollowing rates are just 0.52%. Users are also 31% more likely to unfollow non-misinformation spreaders than they are to unfollow misinformation spreaders. Although generally infrequent, the factors most associated with unfollowing misinformation spreaders are (1) redundancy and (2) ideology. First, users initially following many spreaders, or who follow spreaders that tweet often, are most likely to unfollow later. Second, liberals are more likely to unfollow than conservatives. Overall, we observe strong persistence of misinformation ties. The fact that users rarely unfollow misinformation spreaders suggests a need for external nudges and the importance of preventing exposure from arising in the first place.

Diffusion models have established the state-of-the-art in text-to-image generation, but their performance often relies on a diffusion prior network to translate text embeddings into the visual manifold for easier decoding. These priors are computationally expensive and require extensive training on massive datasets. In this work, we challenge the necessity of a trained prior at all by employing Optimization-based Visual Inversion (OVI), a training-free and zero-shot alternative, to replace the need for a prior. OVI initializes a latent visual representation from random pseudo-tokens and iteratively optimizes it to maximize the cosine similarity with the input textual prompt embedding. We further propose two novel constraints, a Mahalanobis-based and a Nearest-Neighbor loss, to regularize the OVI optimization process toward the distribution of realistic images. Our experiments, conducted on Kandinsky 2.2, show that OVI can serve as an alternative to traditional priors. More importantly, our analysis reveals a critical flaw in current evaluation benchmarks like T2I-CompBench++, where simply using the text embedding as a prior achieves surprisingly high scores, despite lower perceptual quality. Our constrained OVI methods improve visual fidelity over this baseline, with the Nearest-Neighbor approach proving particularly effective. It achieves quantitative scores comparable to or higher than the state-of-the-art data-efficient prior, underscoring the potential of optimization-based strategies as viable, training-free alternatives to traditional priors. The code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Various stuff and things in visual data possess specific traits, which can be learned by deep neural networks and are implicitly represented as the visual prior, e.g., object location and shape, in the model. Such prior potentially impacts many vision tasks. For example, in conditional image synthesis, spatial conditions failing to adhere to the prior can result in visually inaccurate synthetic results. This work aims to explicitly learn the visual prior and enable the customization of sampling. Inspired by advances in language modeling, we propose to learn Visual prior via Generative Pre-Training, dubbed VisorGPT. By discretizing visual locations of objects, e.g., bounding boxes, human pose, and instance masks, into sequences, \our~can model visual prior through likelihood maximization. Besides, prompt engineering is investigated to unify various visual locations and enable customized sampling of sequential outputs from the learned prior. Experimental results demonstrate that \our~can effectively model the visual prior, which can be employed for many vision tasks, such as customizing accurate human pose for conditional image synthesis models like ControlNet. Code will be released at https://github.com/Sierkinhane/VisorGPT.

Prior work on a social web highlighter located individuality in selection -- which documents a person chooses to highlight -- but measured it cross-sectionally. We ask the temporal question: is a reader's selection signature a trait or a state? We freeze each reader's first six months of highlighting as a profile and track its own-vs-other advantage on their later selections at growing gaps (to 24+ months), with negatives drawn from the same calendar era -- so supply drift cannot masquerade as personal drift -- at a coarse global level and at a fine level whose negatives and controls come from the reader's own interest neighborhood; the anchor cell reproduces the prior cross-sectional level (+0.188 vs +0.169), validating the harness. Four results. Within the same users, the fine-layer advantage shows no statistically detectable paired decline at any horizon (6-12 month retention R = 1.00 [0.85, 1.18], n = 212; the farthest bin is compatible with a modest decline; the only contrast whose interval excludes zero is the coarse layer at 12-24 months, about 13%). The signal is not reducible to repeated domains (~90% survives excluding all profile sources). Within-person drift is slow (a recent-half profile beats the old half by +0.042). Prospectively, personal profiles -- even one built from a reader's earliest documents, median 20 months before evaluation -- rank their next reads at roughly 3x the AP of every simple non-personal prior tested. We use "trait" operationally (a stable signature under continued engagement); the scope is heavy, long-tenured readers of one platform, and exposure is not separable from choice.

Text-to-image diffusion models have achieved remarkable progress in generating diverse and realistic images from textual descriptions. However, they still struggle with personalization, which requires adapting a pretrained model to depict user-specific subjects from only a few reference images. The key challenge lies in learning a new visual concept from a limited number of reference images while preserving the pretrained semantic prior that maintains text-image alignment. When the model focuses on subject fidelity, it tends to overfit the limited reference images and fails to leverage the pretrained distribution. Conversely, emphasizing prior preservation maintains semantic consistency but prevents the model from learning new personalized attributes. Building on these observations, we propose the personalization process through a semantic anchoring that guides adaptation by grounding new concepts in their corresponding distributions. We therefore reformulate personalization as the process of learning a rare concept guided by its frequent counterpart through semantic anchoring. This anchoring encourages the model to adapt new concepts in a stable and controlled manner, expanding the pretrained distribution toward personalized regions while preserving its semantic structure. As a result, the proposed method achieves stable adaptation and consistent improvements in both subject fidelity and text-image alignment compared to baseline methods. Extensive experiments and ablation studies further demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed anchoring strategy.

With the growing popularity of text-to-image generative models, there has been increasing focus on understanding their risks and biases. Recent work has found that state-of-the-art models struggle to depict everyday objects with the true diversity of the real world and have notable gaps between geographic regions. In this work, we aim to increase the diversity of generated images of common objects such that per-region variations are representative of the real world. We introduce an inference time intervention, contextualized Vendi Score Guidance (c-VSG), that guides the backwards steps of latent diffusion models to increase the diversity of a sample as compared to a "memory bank" of previously generated images while constraining the amount of variation within that of an exemplar set of real-world contextualizing images. We evaluate c-VSG with two geographically representative datasets and find that it substantially increases the diversity of generated images, both for the worst performing regions and on average, while simultaneously maintaining or improving image quality and consistency. Additionally, qualitative analyses reveal that diversity of generated images is significantly improved, including along the lines of reductive region portrayals present in the original model. We hope that this work is a step towards text-to-image generative models that reflect the true geographic diversity of the world.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

We study adaptive querying for learning user-dependent quantities of interest, such as responses to held-out items and psychometric indicators, within tight question budgets. Classical Bayesian design and computerized adaptive testing typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or expensive posterior approximations, limiting their use in heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and cold-start settings. We introduce a persona-induced latent variable model that represents a user's state through membership in a finite dictionary of AI personas, each offering response distributions produced by a large language model. This yields expressive priors with closed-form posterior updates and efficient finite-mixture predictions, enabling scalable Bayesian design for sequential item selection. Experiments on synthetic data and WorldValuesBench demonstrate that persona-based posteriors deliver accurate probabilistic predictions and an interpretable adaptive elicitation pipeline.

Score-based diffusion models are a class of generative models whose dynamics is described by stochastic differential equations that map noise into data. While recent works have started to lay down a theoretical foundation for these models, an analytical understanding of the role of the diffusion time T is still lacking. Current best practice advocates for a large T to ensure that the forward dynamics brings the diffusion sufficiently close to a known and simple noise distribution; however, a smaller value of T should be preferred for a better approximation of the score-matching objective and higher computational efficiency. Starting from a variational interpretation of diffusion models, in this work we quantify this trade-off, and suggest a new method to improve quality and efficiency of both training and sampling, by adopting smaller diffusion times. Indeed, we show how an auxiliary model can be used to bridge the gap between the ideal and the simulated forward dynamics, followed by a standard reverse diffusion process. Empirical results support our analysis; for image data, our method is competitive w.r.t. the state-of-the-art, according to standard sample quality metrics and log-likelihood.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

Mathematical researchers, especially those in early-career positions, face critical decisions about topic specialization with limited information about the collaborative environments of different research areas. The aim of this paper is to study how the popularity of a research topic is associated with the structure of that topic's collaboration network, as observed by a suite of measures capturing organizational structure at several scales. We apply these measures to 1,938 algorithmically discovered topics across 121,391 papers sourced from arXiv metadata during the period 2020--2025. Our analysis, which controls for the confounding effects of network size, reveals a structural dichotomy--we find that popular topics organize into modular "schools of thought," while niche topics maintain hierarchical core-periphery structures centered around established experts. This divide is not an artifact of scale, but represents a size-independent structural pattern correlated with popularity. We also document a "constraint reversal": after controlling for size, researchers in popular fields face greater structural constraints on collaboration opportunities, contrary to conventional expectations. Our findings suggest that topic selection is an implicit choice between two fundamentally different collaborative environments, each with distinct implications for a researcher's career. To make these structural patterns transparent to the research community, we developed the Math Research Compass (https://mathresearchcompass.com), an interactive platform providing data on topic popularity and collaboration patterns across mathematical topics.

Data selection is of great significance in pre-training large language models, given the variation in quality within the large-scale available training corpora. To achieve this, researchers are currently investigating the use of data influence to measure the importance of data instances, i.e., a high influence score indicates that incorporating this instance to the training set is likely to enhance the model performance. Consequently, they select the top-k instances with the highest scores. However, this approach has several limitations. (1) Computing the influence of all available data is time-consuming. (2) The selected data instances are not diverse enough, which may hinder the pre-trained model's ability to generalize effectively to various downstream tasks. In this paper, we introduce Quad, a data selection approach that considers both quality and diversity by using data influence to achieve state-of-the-art pre-training results. In particular, noting that attention layers capture extensive semantic details, we have adapted the accelerated iHVP computation methods for attention layers, enhancing our ability to evaluate the influence of data, i.e., its quality. For the diversity, Quad clusters the dataset into similar data instances within each cluster and diverse instances across different clusters. For each cluster, if we opt to select data from it, we take some samples to evaluate the influence to prevent processing all instances. To determine which clusters to select, we utilize the classic Multi-Armed Bandit method, treating each cluster as an arm. This approach favors clusters with highly influential instances (ensuring high quality) or clusters that have been selected less frequently (ensuring diversity), thereby well balancing between quality and diversity.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Hypernetwork-based methods such as Doc-to-LoRA internalize a document into an LLM's weights in a single forward pass, but they fail systematically on conflicts: when the document contradicts pretraining knowledge, accuracy collapses to 46.4% on the deepest facts. We show the failure is a magnitude problem rather than a representational one. The hypernetwork already targets the right layers, but its adapter margin is approximately constant across documents while the pretrained margin grows with training frequency, so deep conflicts lose by construction. The account predicts that failure should track prior strength: sorting 194 conflicts by the base model's log-probability on the contradicted fact, baseline accuracy falls from 68% on weak-prior questions to 16% on strong-prior ones, a 52 percentage-point gap. The cure is amplitude. Selective Layer Boosting scales the adapter at its top-norm layers, and Conflict-Aware Internalization triggers boosting only when the base model is confident. Both are training-free; together they raise deep-conflict accuracy from 46.4% to 71.0% on Gemma-2B and from 53.6% to 72.5% on Mistral-7B while preserving novel-knowledge recall, and beat vanilla retrieval-augmented generation on medium conflicts by 18 percentage points despite operating entirely in parameter space. We release KID-Bench, a 489-question benchmark that separates novel recall, cross-knowledge combination, and prior-graded conflicts.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

As machine learning has moved towards leveraging large models as priors for downstream tasks, the community has debated the right form of prior for solving reinforcement learning (RL) problems. If one were to try to prefetch as much computation as possible, they would attempt to learn a prior over the policies for some yet-to-be-determined reward function. Recent work (forward-backward (FB) representation learning) has tried this, arguing that an unsupervised representation learning procedure can enable optimal control over arbitrary rewards without further fine-tuning. However, FB's training objective and learning behavior remain mysterious. In this paper, we demystify FB by clarifying when such representations can exist, what its objective optimizes, and how it converges in practice. We draw connections with rank matching, fitted Q-evaluation, and contraction mapping. Our analysis suggests a simplified unsupervised pre-training method for RL that, instead of enabling optimal control, performs one step of policy improvement. We call our proposed method one-step forward-backward representation learning (one-step FB). Experiments in didactic settings, as well as in 10 state-based and image-based continuous control domains, demonstrate that one-step FB converges to errors 10^5 smaller and improves zero-shot performance by +24% on average. Our project website is available at https://chongyi-zheng.github.io/onestep-fb.

One of the most important challenges for improving personalized services in industries like tourism is predicting users' near-future movements based on prior behavior and current circumstances. Next POI (Point of Interest) recommendation is essential for helping users and service providers by providing personalized recommendations. The intricacy of this work, however, stems from the requirement to take into consideration several variables at once, such as user preferences, time contexts, and geographic locations. POI selection is also greatly influenced by elements like a POI's operational status during desired visit times, desirability for visiting during particular seasons, and its dynamic popularity over time. POI popularity is mostly determined by check-in frequency in recent studies, ignoring visitor volumes, operational constraints, and temporal dynamics. These restrictions result in recommendations that are less than ideal and do not take into account actual circumstances. We propose the Seasonal and Active hours-guided Graph-Enhanced Transformer (SEAGET) model as a solution to these problems. By integrating variations in the seasons, operational status, and temporal dynamics into a graph-enhanced transformer framework, SEAGET capitalizes on redefined POI popularity. This invention gives more accurate and context-aware next POI predictions, with potential applications for optimizing tourist experiences and enhancing location-based services in the tourism industry.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

In order to evaluate the prevalence of security and privacy practices on a representative sample of the Web, researchers rely on website popularity rankings such as the Alexa list. While the validity and representativeness of these rankings are rarely questioned, our findings show the contrary: we show for four main rankings how their inherent properties (similarity, stability, representativeness, responsiveness and benignness) affect their composition and therefore potentially skew the conclusions made in studies. Moreover, we find that it is trivial for an adversary to manipulate the composition of these lists. We are the first to empirically validate that the ranks of domains in each of the lists are easily altered, in the case of Alexa through as little as a single HTTP request. This allows adversaries to manipulate rankings on a large scale and insert malicious domains into whitelists or bend the outcome of research studies to their will. To overcome the limitations of such rankings, we propose improvements to reduce the fluctuations in list composition and guarantee better defenses against manipulation. To allow the research community to work with reliable and reproducible rankings, we provide Tranco, an improved ranking that we offer through an online service available at https://tranco-list.eu.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

We investigate the extent to which offline demonstration data can improve online learning. It is natural to expect some improvement, but the question is how, and by how much? We show that the degree of improvement must depend on the quality of the demonstration data. To generate portable insights, we focus on Thompson sampling (TS) applied to a multi-armed bandit as a prototypical online learning algorithm and model. The demonstration data is generated by an expert with a given competence level, a notion we introduce. We propose an informed TS algorithm that utilizes the demonstration data in a coherent way through Bayes' rule and derive a prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound. This offers insight into how pretraining can greatly improve online performance and how the degree of improvement increases with the expert's competence level. We also develop a practical, approximate informed TS algorithm through Bayesian bootstrapping and show substantial empirical regret reduction through experiments.

Music popularity prediction has attracted growing research interest, with relevance to artists, platforms, and recommendation systems. However, the explosive rise of AI-generated music platforms has created an entirely new and largely unexplored landscape, where a surge of songs is produced and consumed daily without the traditional markers of artist reputation or label backing. Key, yet unexplored in this pursuit is aesthetic quality. We propose APEX, the first large-scale multi-task learning framework for AI-generated music, trained on over 211k songs (10k hours of audio) from Suno and Udio, that jointly predicts engagement-based popularity signals - streams and likes scores - alongside five perceptual aesthetic quality dimensions from frozen audio embeddings extracted from MERT, a self-supervised music understanding model. Aesthetic quality and popularity capture complementary aspects of music that together prove valuable: in an out-of-distribution evaluation on the Music Arena dataset, comprising pairwise human preference battles across eleven generative music systems unseen during training, including aesthetic features consistently improves preference prediction, demonstrating strong generalisation of the learned representations across generative architectures.

Data attribution methods trace model behavior back to its training dataset, offering an effective approach to better understand ''black-box'' neural networks. While prior research has established quantifiable links between model output and training data in diverse settings, interpreting diffusion model outputs in relation to training samples remains underexplored. In particular, diffusion models operate over a sequence of timesteps instead of instantaneous input-output relationships in previous contexts, posing a significant challenge to extend existing frameworks to diffusion models directly. Notably, we present Diffusion-TracIn that incorporates this temporal dynamics and observe that samples' loss gradient norms are highly dependent on timestep. This trend leads to a prominent bias in influence estimation, and is particularly noticeable for samples trained on large-norm-inducing timesteps, causing them to be generally influential. To mitigate this effect, we introduce Diffusion-ReTrac as a re-normalized adaptation that enables the retrieval of training samples more targeted to the test sample of interest, facilitating a localized measurement of influence and considerably more intuitive visualization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through various evaluation metrics and auxiliary tasks, reducing the amount of generally influential samples to 1{3} of its original quantity.

The recent use of diffusion prior, enhanced by pre-trained text-image models, has markedly elevated the performance of image super-resolution (SR). To alleviate the huge computational cost required by pixel-based diffusion SR, latent-based methods utilize a feature encoder to transform the image and then implement the SR image generation in a compact latent space. Nevertheless, there are two major issues that limit the performance of latent-based diffusion. First, the compression of latent space usually causes reconstruction distortion. Second, huge computational cost constrains the parameter scale of the diffusion model. To counteract these issues, we first propose a frequency compensation module that enhances the frequency components from latent space to pixel space. The reconstruction distortion (especially for high-frequency information) can be significantly decreased. Then, we propose to use Sample-Space Mixture of Experts (SS-MoE) to achieve more powerful latent-based SR, which steadily improves the capacity of the model without a significant increase in inference costs. These carefully crafted designs contribute to performance improvements in largely explored 4x blind super-resolution benchmarks and extend to large magnification factors, i.e., 8x image SR benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/amandaluof/moe_sr.

Modern recommender systems follow the guiding principle of serving the right user, the right item at the right time. One of their main limitations is that they are typically limited to items already in the catalog. We propose REcommendations BEyond CAtalogs, REBECA, a new class of probabilistic diffusion-based recommender systems that synthesize new items tailored to individual tastes rather than retrieve items from the catalog. REBECA combines efficient training in embedding space with a novel diffusion prior that only requires users' past ratings of items. We evaluate REBECA on real-world data and propose novel personalization metrics for generative recommender systems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that REBECA produces high-quality, personalized recommendations, generating images that align with users' unique preferences.

Recent research has demonstrated that feature attribution methods for deep networks can themselves be incorporated into training; these attribution priors optimize for a model whose attributions have certain desirable properties -- most frequently, that particular features are important or unimportant. These attribution priors are often based on attribution methods that are not guaranteed to satisfy desirable interpretability axioms, such as completeness and implementation invariance. Here, we introduce attribution priors to optimize for higher-level properties of explanations, such as smoothness and sparsity, enabled by a fast new attribution method formulation called expected gradients that satisfies many important interpretability axioms. This improves model performance on many real-world tasks where previous attribution priors fail. Our experiments show that the gains from combining higher-level attribution priors with expected gradients attributions are consistent across image, gene expression, and health care data sets. We believe this work motivates and provides the necessary tools to support the widespread adoption of axiomatic attribution priors in many areas of applied machine learning. The implementations and our results have been made freely available to academic communities.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Despite recent advances in diffusion models, achieving reliable image generation and editing remains challenging due to the inherent diversity induced by stochastic noise in the sampling process. Instruction-guided image editing with diffusion models offers user-friendly capabilities, yet editing failures, such as background distortion, frequently occur. Users often resort to trial and error, adjusting seeds or prompts to achieve satisfactory results, which is inefficient. While seed selection methods exist for Text-to-Image (T2I) generation, they depend on external verifiers, limiting applicability, and evaluating multiple seeds increases computational complexity. To address this, we first establish a multiple-seed-based image editing baseline using background consistency scores, achieving Best-of-N performance without supervision. Building on this, we introduce ELECT (Early-timestep Latent Evaluation for Candidate Selection), a zero-shot framework that selects reliable seeds by estimating background mismatches at early diffusion timesteps, identifying the seed that retains the background while modifying only the foreground. ELECT ranks seed candidates by a background inconsistency score, filtering unsuitable samples early based on background consistency while preserving editability. Beyond standalone seed selection, ELECT integrates into instruction-guided editing pipelines and extends to Multimodal Large-Language Models (MLLMs) for joint seed and prompt selection, further improving results when seed selection alone is insufficient. Experiments show that ELECT reduces computational costs (by 41 percent on average and up to 61 percent) while improving background consistency and instruction adherence, achieving around 40 percent success rates in previously failed cases - without any external supervision or training.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit positional bias in how they use context, which especially complicates listwise ranking. To address this, we propose permutation self-consistency, a form of self-consistency over ranking list outputs of black-box LLMs. Our key idea is to marginalize out different list orders in the prompt to produce an order-independent ranking with less positional bias. First, given some input prompt, we repeatedly shuffle the list in the prompt and pass it through the LLM while holding the instructions the same. Next, we aggregate the resulting sample of rankings by computing the central ranking closest in distance to all of them, marginalizing out prompt order biases in the process. Theoretically, we prove the robustness of our method, showing convergence to the true ranking in the presence of random perturbations. Empirically, on five list-ranking datasets in sorting and passage reranking, our approach improves scores from conventional inference by up to 7-18% for GPT-3.5 and 8-16% for LLaMA v2 (70B), surpassing the previous state of the art in passage reranking. Our code is at https://github.com/castorini/perm-sc.