Daily Papers

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains an open challenge, particularly in noisy regression tasks. This paper investigates whether ICL can be leveraged for distribution-free uncertainty estimation, proposing a method based on conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. While traditional conformal methods are computationally expensive due to repeated model fitting, we exploit ICL to efficiently generate confidence intervals in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis compares this approach against ridge regression-based conformal methods, showing that conformal prediction with in-context learning (CP with ICL) achieves robust and scalable uncertainty estimates. Additionally, we evaluate its performance under distribution shifts and establish scaling laws to guide model training. These findings bridge ICL and conformal prediction, providing a theoretically grounded and new framework for uncertainty quantification in transformer-based models.

We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

One-shot prediction enables rapid adaptation of pretrained foundation models to new tasks using only one labeled example, but lacks principled uncertainty quantification. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, standard split conformal methods are inefficient in the one-shot setting due to data splitting and reliance on a single predictor. We propose Conformal Aggregation of One-Shot Predictors (CAOS), a conformal framework that adaptively aggregates multiple one-shot predictors and uses a leave-one-out calibration scheme to fully exploit scarce labeled data. Despite violating classical exchangeability assumptions, we prove that CAOS achieves valid marginal coverage using a monotonicity-based argument. Experiments on one-shot facial landmarking and RAFT text classification tasks show that CAOS produces substantially smaller prediction sets than split conformal baselines while maintaining reliable coverage.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety. In this paper we introduce PCS-UQ, a framework based on the Predictability, Computability, and Stability (PCS) principles for veridical data science. Starting with a candidate set of models or algorithms, PCS-UQ integrates a rigorous prediction-check to screen out unsuitable models in the set and utilizes bootstrap samples, in order to capture both inter-sample variability and algorithmic instability for the prediction-checked algorithms. We then introduce a novel multiplicative calibration scheme to enhance local adaptivity, which basically corresponds to a new score in conformal prediction. Moreover, we produce a compilation of 17 real-world regression datasets with manually-constructed subgroups. On this benchmark, PCS-UQ maintains the target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods equipped with oracle-selected algorithms in interval width. PCS-UQ achieves consistent subgroup coverage, outperforming these oracle-selected conformal methods. Notably, PCS-UQ stands out in achieving both competitive interval widths and consistent subgroup coverage.Across 6 classification datasets, PCS-UQ reduces prediction set sizes by 20\%. To scale the framework for deep learning, we propose computationally efficient variants that bypass expensive retraining. On three computer vision benchmarks, these variants reduce prediction set sizes by 20\% over conformal baselines. Finally, we provide theoretical proof that a modified PCS-UQ algorithm preserves valid coverage under exchangeability as a form of split conformal inference.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Stream networks, a unique class of spatiotemporal graphs, exhibit complex directional flow constraints and evolving dependencies, making uncertainty quantification a critical yet challenging task. Traditional conformal prediction methods struggle in this setting due to the need for joint predictions across multiple interdependent locations and the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in stream networks. Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. STACI introduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

In this paper we deploy for the first time Reinforcement-Learning algorithms in the context of the conformal-bootstrap programme to obtain numerical solutions of conformal field theories (CFTs). As an illustration, we use a soft Actor-Critic algorithm and find approximate solutions to the truncated crossing equations of two-dimensional CFTs, successfully identifying well-known theories like the 2D Ising model and the 2D CFT of a compactified scalar. Our methods can perform efficient high-dimensional searches that can be used to study arbitrary (unitary or non-unitary) CFTs in any spacetime dimension.

Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run 1-α coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual learning-rate tuning to work well, and may also require algorithm-specific analyses. Here, we develop a general regret-to-coverage theory for interval-valued OCP based on the (1-α)-pinball loss. Our first contribution is to identify linearized regret as a key notion, showing that controlling it implies coverage bounds for any online algorithm. This relies on a black-box reduction that depends only on the Fenchel conjugate of an upper bound on the linearized regret. Building on this theory, we propose UP-OCP, a parameter-free method for OCP, via a reduction to a two-asset portfolio selection problem, leveraging universal portfolio algorithms. We show strong finite-time bounds on the miscoverage of UP-OCP, even for polynomially growing predictions. Extensive experiments support that UP-OCP delivers consistently better size/coverage trade-offs than prior online conformal baselines.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

Existing research on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) primarily focuses on improving overall question-answering accuracy, often overlooking the quality of sub-claims within generated responses. Recent methods that attempt to improve RAG trustworthiness, such as through auto-evaluation metrics, lack probabilistic guarantees or require ground truth answers. To address these limitations, we propose Conformal-RAG, a novel framework inspired by recent applications of conformal prediction (CP) on large language models (LLMs). Conformal-RAG leverages CP and internal information from the RAG mechanism to offer statistical guarantees on response quality. It ensures group-conditional coverage spanning multiple sub-domains without requiring manual labelling of conformal sets, making it suitable for complex RAG applications. Compared to existing RAG auto-evaluation methods, Conformal-RAG offers statistical guarantees on the quality of refined sub-claims, ensuring response reliability without the need for ground truth answers. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that by leveraging information from the RAG system, Conformal-RAG retains up to 60\% more high-quality sub-claims from the response compared to direct applications of CP to LLMs, while maintaining the same reliability guarantee.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

We study the conformal bootstrap of 1D CFTs on the straight Maldacena-Wilson line in 4D {cal N}=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. We introduce an improved truncation scheme with an 'OPE tail' approximation and use it to reproduce the 'bootstrability' results of Cavagli\`a et al. for the OPE-coefficients squared of the first three unprotected operators. For example, for the first OPE-coefficient squared at 't Hooft coupling (4pi)^2, linear-functional methods with two sum rules from integrated correlators give the rigorous result 0.294014873 pm 4.88 cdot 10^{-8}, whereas our methods give with machine-precision computations 0.294014228 pm 6.77 cdot 10^{-7}. For our numerical searches, we benchmark the Reinforcement Learning Soft Actor-Critic algorithm against an Interior Point Method algorithm (IPOPT) and comment on the merits of each algorithm.

Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) has shown promise for grounded and interpretable reasoning, yet existing approaches often fail to provide reliable coverage guarantees over retrieved answers. While Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for producing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, prior methods suffer from critical limitations in both calibration validity and score discriminability, resulting in violated coverage guarantees and excessively large prediction sets. To address these pitfalls, we propose Conformal Path Reasoning (CPR), a trustworthy KGQA framework with two key innovations. First, we perform query-level conformal calibration over path-level scores, preserving the exchangeability while generating path prediction sets. Second, we introduce the Residual Conformal Value Network (RCVNet), a lightweight module trained via PUCT-guided exploration to learn discriminative path-level nonconformity scores. Experiments on benchmarks show that CPR significantly improves the Empirical Coverage Rate by 34% while reducing average prediction set size by 40% compared to conformal baselines. These results validate the efficacy of CPR in satisfying coverage guarantees with substantially more compact answer sets.

We introduce the use of reinforcement-learning (RL) techniques to the conformal-bootstrap programme. We demonstrate that suitable soft Actor-Critic RL algorithms can perform efficient, relatively cheap high-dimensional searches in the space of scaling dimensions and OPE-squared coefficients that produce sensible results for tens of CFT data from a single crossing equation. In this paper we test this approach in well-known 2D CFTs, with particular focus on the Ising and tri-critical Ising models and the free compactified boson CFT. We present results of as high as 36-dimensional searches, whose sole input is the expected number of operators per spin in a truncation of the conformal-block decomposition of the crossing equations. Our study of 2D CFTs uses only the global so(2,2) part of the conformal algebra, and our methods are equally applicable to higher-dimensional CFTs. When combined with other, already available, numerical and analytical methods, we expect our approach to yield an exciting new window into the non-perturbative structure of arbitrary (unitary or non-unitary) CFTs.

In this work, we propose an effective action of the two-dimensional conformal field theory for the Soft modes appearing in Quantum ElectroDynamics (QED) in 4 dimensions. This is motivated in two ways. First, we motivate the notion of an effective action for the Soft modes using the path integral formalism. Second, by noting the transformations of the on-shell gauge-fixed QED action, we deduce necessary boundary conditions and the corresponding form of the counter-terms that govern the IR sector. We review a derivation of the Soft Ward-Takahashi identity using path integral methods and offer an alternative derivation that follows from the large-gauge variations of the QED action. Because our effective action is that of a conformal theory, we calculate the relevant central charge.

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as judges to replace costly human preference labels in pairwise evaluation. Despite their practicality, LLM judges remain prone to miscalibration and systematic biases. This paper proposes SCOPE (Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise Evaluation), a framework for selective pairwise judging with finite-sample statistical guarantees. Under exchangeability, SCOPE calibrates an acceptance threshold such that the error rate among non-abstained judgments is at most a user-specified level α. To provide SCOPE with a bias-neutral uncertainty signal, we introduce Bidirectional Preference Entropy (BPE), which queries the judge under both response positions, aggregates the implied preference probabilities to enforce invariance to response order, and converts the aggregated probability into an entropy-based uncertainty score. Across MT-Bench, RewardBench, and Chatbot Arena, BPE improves uncertainty quality over standard confidence proxies, providing a stronger selection signal that enables SCOPE to consistently meet the target risk level while retaining good coverage across judge scales. In particular, at α= 0.10, SCOPE consistently satisfies the risk bound across all benchmarks and judge scales (empirical risk approx 0.097 to 0.099), while retaining substantial coverage, reaching 0.89 on RewardBench with Qwen-14B and 0.98 on RewardBench with Qwen-32B. Compared to naïve baselines, SCOPE accepts up to 2.4times more judgments on MT-Bench with Qwen-7B under the same target risk constraint, demonstrating that BPE enables reliable and high-coverage LLM-based evaluation.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for open-ended language generation remains a critical yet underexplored challenge, especially under black-box constraints where internal model signals are inaccessible. In this paper, we introduce Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction (TECP), a novel framework that leverages token-level entropy as a logit-free, reference-free uncertainty measure and integrates it into a split conformal prediction (CP) pipeline to construct prediction sets with formal coverage guarantees. Unlike existing approaches that rely on semantic consistency heuristics or white-box features, TECP directly estimates epistemic uncertainty from the token entropy structure of sampled generations and calibrates uncertainty thresholds via CP quantiles to ensure provable error control. Empirical evaluations across six large language models and two benchmarks (CoQA and TriviaQA) demonstrate that TECP consistently achieves reliable coverage and compact prediction sets, outperforming prior self-consistency-based UQ methods. Our method provides a principled and efficient solution for trustworthy generation in black-box LLM settings.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work we aim to explore the space in between these two, and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a distribution-free setting.

Fetal ultrasound standard-plane classification underpins reliable prenatal biometry and anomaly screening, yet real-world deployment is limited by domain shift, image noise, and poor calibration of predicted probabilities. This paper presents a practical framework for uncertainty-calibrated explainable AI in fetal plane classification. We synthesize uncertainty estimation methods (Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, evidential learning, and conformal prediction) with post-hoc and uncertainty-aware explanations (Grad-CAM variants, LIME-style local surrogates, and uncertainty-weighted multi-resolution activation maps), and we map these components to a clinician-facing workflow. Using FETAL_PLANES_DB as a reference benchmark, we define a reporting protocol that couples accuracy with calibration and selective prediction, including expected calibration error, Brier score, coverage-risk curves, and structured error analysis with explanations. We also discuss integration points for quality control and human-in-the-loop review, where uncertainty flags trigger re-acquisition or expert confirmation. The goal is a reproducible, clinically aligned blueprint for building fetal ultrasound classifiers whose confidence and explanations remain trustworthy under noisy acquisition conditions.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Precision agriculture in general, and precision weeding in particular, have greatly benefited from the major advancements in deep learning and computer vision. A large variety of commercial robotic solutions are already available and deployed. However, the adoption by farmers of such solutions is still low for many reasons, an important one being the lack of trust in these systems. This is in great part due to the opaqueness and complexity of deep neural networks and the manufacturers' inability to provide valid guarantees on their performance. Conformal prediction, a well-established methodology in the machine learning community, is an efficient and reliable strategy for providing trustworthy guarantees on the predictions of any black-box model under very minimal constraints. Bridging the gap between the safe machine learning and precision agriculture communities, this article showcases conformal prediction in action on the task of precision weeding through deep learning-based image classification. After a detailed presentation of the conformal prediction methodology and the development of a precision spraying pipeline based on a ''conformalized'' neural network and well-defined spraying decision rules, the article evaluates this pipeline on two real-world scenarios: one under in-distribution conditions, the other reflecting a near out-of-distribution setting. The results show that we are able to provide formal, i.e. certifiable, guarantees on spraying at least 90% of the weeds.

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for creating statistically rigorous uncertainty sets/intervals for the predictions of such models. Critically, the sets are valid in a distribution-free sense: they possess explicit, non-asymptotic guarantees even without distributional assumptions or model assumptions. One can use conformal prediction with any pre-trained model, such as a neural network, to produce sets that are guaranteed to contain the ground truth with a user-specified probability, such as 90%. It is easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and general, applying naturally to problems arising in the fields of computer vision, natural language processing, deep reinforcement learning, and so on. This hands-on introduction is aimed to provide the reader a working understanding of conformal prediction and related distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques with one self-contained document. We lead the reader through practical theory for and examples of conformal prediction and describe its extensions to complex machine learning tasks involving structured outputs, distribution shift, time-series, outliers, models that abstain, and more. Throughout, there are many explanatory illustrations, examples, and code samples in Python. With each code sample comes a Jupyter notebook implementing the method on a real-data example; the notebooks can be accessed and easily run using our codebase.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Conformal symmetries, i.e.\ coordinate transformations that preserve angles, play a key role in many fields, including physics, mathematics, computer vision and (geometric) machine learning. Here we build a neural network that is equivariant under general conformal transformations. To achieve this, we lift data from flat Euclidean space to Anti de Sitter (AdS) space. This allows us to exploit a known correspondence between conformal transformations of flat space and isometric transformations on the AdS space. We then build upon the fact that such isometric transformations have been extensively studied on general geometries in the geometric deep learning literature. We employ message-passing layers conditioned on the proper distance, yielding a computationally efficient framework. We validate our model on tasks from computer vision and statistical physics, demonstrating strong performance, improved generalization capacities, and the ability to extract conformal data such as scaling dimensions from the trained network.

We present the wakefield conformal mapping technique that can be readily applied to the analysis of the radiation generated by an ultra-relativistic particle in the step transition and a collimator. We derive simple analytical expressions for the lower and upper bounds of both longitudinal and transverse wake potentials. We test the derived expressions against well-known formulas in several representative examples. The proposed method can greatly simplify the optimization of collimating sections, as well as become a useful tool in the shape optimization problems.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

The composition gamma circ eta of Jordan curves gamma and eta in universal Teichm\"uller space is defined through the composition h_gamma circ h_eta of their conformal weldings. We show that whenever gamma and eta are curves of finite Loewner energy I^L, the energy of the composition satisfies $I^L(gamma circ eta) lesssim_K I^L(gamma) + I^L(eta), with an explicit constant in terms of the quasiconformal K of \gamma and \eta. We also study the asymptotic growth rate of the Loewner energy under n self-compositions \gamma^n := \gamma \circ \cdots \circ \gamma, showing limsup_{n rightarrow infty} 1{n}log I^L(gamma^n) lesssim_K 1, again with explicit constant. Our approach is to define a new conformally-covariant rooted welding functional W_h(y), and show W_h(y) \asymp_K I^L(\gamma) when h is a welding of \gamma and y is any root (a point in the domain of h). In the course of our arguments we also give several new expressions for the Loewner energy, including generalized formulas in terms of the Riemann maps f and g for \gamma which hold irrespective of the placement of \gamma on the Riemann sphere, the normalization of f and g, and what disks D, D^c \subset \mathbb{C} serve as domains. An additional corollary is that I^L(\gamma) is bounded above by a constant only depending on the Weil--Petersson distance from \gamma$ to the circle.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

The Weak Gravity Conjecture has recently been re-formulated in terms of a particle with non-negative self-binding energy. Because of the dual conformal field theory (CFT) formulation in the anti-de Sitter space the conformal dimension Delta (Q) of the lowest-dimension operator with charge Q under some global U(1) symmetry must be a convex function of Q. This property has been conjectured to hold for any (unitary) conformal field theory and generalized to larger global symmetry groups. Here we refine and further test the convex charge conjecture via semiclassical computations for fixed charge sectors of different theories in different dimensions. We analyze the convexity properties of the leading and next-to-leading order terms stemming from the semiclassical computation, de facto, extending previous tests beyond the leading perturbative contributions and to arbitrary charges. In particular, the leading contribution is sufficient to test convexity in the semiclassical computations. We also consider intriguing cases in which the models feature a transition from real to complex conformal dimensions either as a function of the charge or number of matter fields. As a relevant example of the first kind, we investigate the O(N) model in 4+epsilon dimensions. As an example of the second type we consider the U(N)times U(M) model in 4-epsilon dimensions. Both models display a rich dynamics where, by changing the number of matter fields and/or charge, one can achieve dramatically different physical regimes. We discover that whenever a complex conformal dimension appears, the real part satisfies the convexity property.

We introduce a novel method for solving density-based topology optimization problems: Sigmoidal Mirror descent with a Projected Latent variable (SiMPL). The SiMPL method (pronounced as ``the simple method'') optimizes a design using only first-order derivative information of the objective function. The bound constraints on the density field are enforced with the help of the (negative) Fermi--Dirac entropy, which is also used to define a non-symmetric distance function called a Bregman divergence on the set of admissible designs. This Bregman divergence leads to a simple update rule that is further simplified with the help of a so-called latent variable. Because the SiMPL method involves discretizing the latent variable, it produces a sequence of pointwise-feasible iterates, even when high-order finite elements are used in the discretization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the method outperforms other popular first-order optimization algorithms. To outline the general applicability of the technique, we include examples with (self-load) compliance minimization and compliant mechanism optimization problems.

We set up precision holography for the non-conformal branes preserving 16 supersymmetries. The near-horizon limit of all such p-brane solutions with p \leq 4, including the case of fundamental string solutions, is conformal to AdS_{p+2} x S^{8-p} with a linear dilaton. We develop holographic renormalization for all these cases. In particular, we obtain the most general asymptotic solutions with appropriate Dirichlet boundary conditions, find the corresponding counterterms and compute the holographic 1-point functions, all in complete generality and at the full non-linear level. The result for the stress energy tensor properly defines the notion of mass for backgrounds with such asymptotics. The analysis is done both in the original formulation of the method and also using a radial Hamiltonian analysis. The latter formulation exhibits most clearly the existence of an underlying generalized conformal structure. In the cases of Dp-branes, the corresponding dual boundary theory, the maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory SYM_{p+1}, indeed exhibits the generalized conformal structure found at strong coupling. We compute the holographic 2-point functions of the stress energy tensor and gluon operator and show they satisfy the expected Ward identities and the constraints of generalized conformal structure. The holographic results are also manifestly compatible with the M-theory uplift, with the asymptotic solutions, counterterms, one and two point functions etc of the IIA F1 and D4 appropriately descending from those of M2 and M5 branes, respectively. We present a few applications including the computation of condensates in Witten's model of holographic YM_4 theory.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We demonstrate that the interval length might be deceptively improved through a counter-intuitive approach termed Prejudicial Trick(PT), while the coverage remains valid. Specifically, for any given test sample, PT probabilistically returns an interval, which is either null or constructed using an adjusted confidence level, thereby preserving marginal coverage. While PT potentially yields a deceptively lower interval length, it introduces practical vulnerabilities: the same input can yield completely different prediction intervals across repeated runs of the algorithm. We formally derive the conditions under which PT achieves these misleading improvements and provide extensive empirical evidence across various regression and classification tasks. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric interval stability which helps detect whether a new CP method implicitly improves the length based on such PT-like techniques. Code is available at https://github.com/benben-cd/PT-Conformal-Prediction.

The construction of a theory of quantum gravity is an outstanding problem that can benefit from better understanding the laws of nature that are expected to hold in regimes currently inaccessible to experiment. Such fundamental laws can be found by considering the classical counterparts of a quantum theory. For example, conservation laws in a quantum theory often stem from conservation laws of the corresponding classical theory. In order to construct such laws, this thesis is concerned with the interplay between symmetries and conservation laws of classical field theories and their application to asymptotically flat spacetimes. This work begins with an explanation of symmetries in field theories with a focus on variational symmetries and their associated conservation laws. Boundary conditions for general relativity are then formulated on three-dimensional asymptotically flat spacetimes at null infinity using the method of conformal completion. Conserved quantities related to asymptotic symmetry transformations are derived and their properties are studied. This is done in a manifestly coordinate independent manner. In a separate step a coordinate system is introduced, such that the results can be compared to existing literature. Next, asymptotically flat spacetimes which contain both future as well as past null infinity are considered. Asymptotic symmetries occurring at these disjoint regions of three-dimensional asymptotically flat spacetimes are linked and the corresponding conserved quantities are matched. Finally, it is shown how asymptotic symmetries lead to the notion of distinct Minkowski spaces that can be differentiated by conserved quantities.

We study the Dirichlet problem for the weighted Schr\"odinger operator \[-\Delta u +Vu = \lambda \rho u,\] where rho is a positive weighting function and V is a potential. Such equations appear naturally in conformal geometry and in the composite membrane problem. Our primary goal is to establish concavity estimates for the principle eigenfunction with respect to conformal connections. Doing so, we obtain new bounds on the fundamental gap problem, which is the difference between the first and second eigenvalues. In particular, we partially resolve a conjecture of Nguyen, Stancu and Wei [IMRN 2022] on the fundamental gap of horoconvex domains. In addition, we obtain a power convexity estimate for solutions to the torsion problem in spherical geometry on convex domains which are not too large.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

A Transformer-based deep direct sampling method is proposed for electrical impedance tomography, a well-known severely ill-posed nonlinear boundary value inverse problem. A real-time reconstruction is achieved by evaluating the learned inverse operator between carefully designed data and the reconstructed images. An effort is made to give a specific example to a fundamental question: whether and how one can benefit from the theoretical structure of a mathematical problem to develop task-oriented and structure-conforming deep neural networks? Specifically, inspired by direct sampling methods for inverse problems, the 1D boundary data in different frequencies are preprocessed by a partial differential equation-based feature map to yield 2D harmonic extensions as different input channels. Then, by introducing learnable non-local kernels, the direct sampling is recast to a modified attention mechanism. The new method achieves superior accuracy over its predecessors and contemporary operator learners and shows robustness to noises in benchmarks. This research shall strengthen the insights that, despite being invented for natural language processing tasks, the attention mechanism offers great flexibility to be modified in conformity with the a priori mathematical knowledge, which ultimately leads to the design of more physics-compatible neural architectures.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

We utilize generalized moving least squares (GMLS) to develop meshfree techniques for discretizing hydrodynamic flow problems on manifolds. We use exterior calculus to formulate incompressible hydrodynamic equations in the Stokesian regime and handle the divergence-free constraints via a generalized vector potential. This provides less coordinate-centric descriptions and enables the development of efficient numerical methods and splitting schemes for the fourth-order governing equations in terms of a system of second-order elliptic operators. Using a Hodge decomposition, we develop methods for manifolds having spherical topology. We show the methods exhibit high-order convergence rates for solving hydrodynamic flows on curved surfaces. The methods also provide general high-order approximations for the metric, curvature, and other geometric quantities of the manifold and associated exterior calculus operators. The approaches also can be utilized to develop high-order solvers for other scalar-valued and vector-valued problems on manifolds.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation (procedural fairness), we analyze the holistic decision-making pipeline to evaluate substantive fairness-the equity of downstream outcomes. Theoretically, we derive an upper bound that decomposes prediction-set size disparity into interpretable components, clarifying how label-clustered CP helps control method-driven contributions to unfairness. To facilitate scalable empirical analysis, we introduce an LLM-in-the-loop evaluator that approximates human assessment of substantive fairness across diverse modalities. Our experiments reveal that label-clustered CP variants consistently deliver superior substantive fairness. Finally, we empirically show that equalized set sizes, rather than coverage, strongly correlate with improved substantive fairness, enabling practitioners to design more fair CP systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/llm-in-the-loop-conformal-fairness.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We study numerically the 6D (2,0) superconformal bootstrap using the soft-Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm as a stochastic optimizer. We focus on the four-point functions of scalar superconformal primaries in the energy-momentum multiplet. Starting from the supergravity limit, we perform searches for adiabatically varied central charges and derive two curves for a collection of 80 CFT data (70 of these data correspond to unprotected long multiplets and 10 to protected short multiplets). We conjecture that the two curves capture the A- and D-series (2,0) theories. Our results are competitive when compared to the existing bounds coming from standard numerical bootstrap methods, and data obtained using the OPE inversion formula. With this paper we are also releasing our Python implementation of the SAC algorithm, BootSTOP. The paper discusses the main functionality features of this package.

We study simplified bootstrap problems for probability distributions on the infinite line and the circle. We show that the rapid convergence of the bootstrap method for problems on the infinite line is related to the fact that the smallest eigenvalue of the positive matrices in the exact solution becomes exponentially small for large matrices, while the moments grow factorially. As a result, the positivity condition is very finely tuned. For problems on the circle we show instead that the entries of the positive matrix of Fourier modes of the distribution depend linearly on the initial data of the recursion, with factorially growing coefficients. By positivity, these matrix elements are bounded in absolute value by one, so the initial data must also be fine-tuned. Additionally, we find that we can largely bypass the semi-definite program (SDP) nature of the problem on a circle by recognizing that these Fourier modes must be asymptotically exponentially small. With a simple ansatz, which we call the shoestring bootstrap, we can efficiently identify an interior point of the set of allowed matrices with much higher precision than conventional SDP bounds permit. We apply this method to solving unitary matrix model integrals by numerically constructing the orthogonal polynomials associated with the circle distribution.

We address the problem of determining the Hausdorff dimension of sets consisting of complex irrationals whose complex continued fraction digits satisfy prescribed restrictions and growth conditions. For the Hurwitz continued fraction, we confirm Hirst's conjecture, as a complex analogue of the result of Wang and Wu [Bull. Lond. Math. Soc. {\bf 40} (2008), no. 1, 18--22] for the regular continued fraction. We also prove a complex analogue of the second-named author's result on the Hausdorff dimension of sets with restricted slowly growing digits [Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. {\bf 151} (2023), no. 9, 3645--3653]. To these ends, we exploit an infinite conformal iterated function system associated with the Hurwitz continued fraction.

The Hilfer fractional derivative generalizes and interpolates between the commonly used Riemann-Liouville and Caputo fractional derivative. In general, solutions to Hilfer fractional derivative initial value problems are singular for t downarrow t_0, providing a challenge in numerical approximation. In this work, we present a Bernstein splines method to obtain accurate approximations to solutions of nonlinear Hilfer fractional derivative initial value problems, including solutions with singular behavior. We provide explicit convergence requirements and asymptotic convergence rates to analytical solutions. Moreover, the method is efficiently implemented, using a vectorized approach and parallelization in polynomial order. Numerical experiments show empirical convergence corresponding to analytical results and a significantly higher accuracy compared to the commonly used fractional Adams-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector method. Furthermore, our method is able to simulate nonlinear systems with Hilfer fractional derivatives, as demonstrated by the application to the fractional Van der Pol oscillator.

Orthogonalized-update optimizers such as Muon improve training of matrix-valued parameters, but existing extensions typically either rescale updates after orthogonalization or use heavier whitening-based preconditioners before it. We introduce {\method}, a lightweight family of pre-orthogonalization equilibration schemes for Muon with three forms: two-sided row/column normalization (RC), row normalization (R), and column normalization (C). By rebalancing the momentum matrix before finite-step Newton--Schulz orthogonalization, {\method} improves the geometry seen by orthogonalization. We show that finite-step orthogonalization is governed by the input spectrum, especially stable rank and condition number, and that row/column normalization acts as a zeroth-order surrogate for whitening. For hidden matrix weights, R is the default variant. Theoretically, {\method} (R) retains the standard mathcal O(T^{-1/4}) Muon-type nonconvex stationarity guarantee with decoupled weight decay and a horizon-free diminishing learning-rate schedule, and extends it to finite-step NS5 up to an explicit inexactness constant. In LLaMA2 pretraining on C4, {\method} (R) consistently outperforms Muon on 130M, 350M, and 1B models, with faster convergence and lower validation perplexity. The code is available at the https://github.com/MaeChd/muon-eq{MuonEq codebase}.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

We investigate the anomaly-induced activation of a gauge-invariant scalar degree of freedom in General Relativity, the conformalon mode, directly at the level of \(2\to2\) scattering amplitudes. The analysis couples anomalous three-point functions of conformal sectors, involving gravitons \((TTT)\) and Abelian gauge currents \((TJJ)\), through single-graviton exchange derived from the quadratic expansion of the Einstein--Hilbert action. Unlike related treatments based on the nonlocal anomaly action, these interactions are suppressed by the Planck scale. We show that the conformalon, invariant under linearized diffeomorphisms, admits an interpretation as an effective scalar correction to scattering amplitudes, both in virtual exchange channels and in effective real-emission processes. Around flat space, this behaviour arises from anomaly-induced nonlocal massless insertions on the external graviton and photon legs of the three-point functions, sewn through the scalar component of the graviton propagator in de Donder gauge. The resulting anomaly-mediated \(4\)-point interaction reduces to contact terms, with the Planck mass setting the suppression scale. The construction consistently matches the spin decomposition of flat-space conformal Ward identities in momentum space, which determine the vertices, with the corresponding spin decomposition of the graviton propagator. In the eikonal limit, these interactions generate contact corrections to the leading logarithmic phase in impact-parameter space. We further show that anomaly-mediated \(2\to2\) graviton amplitudes associated with the virtual exchange of such modes exhibit a characteristic double-copy structure.

Optimization analyses for cross-entropy training rely on local Taylor models of the loss to predict whether a proposed step will decrease the objective. These surrogates are reliable only inside the Taylor convergence radius of the true loss along the update direction. That radius is set not by real-line curvature alone but by the nearest complex singularity. For cross-entropy, the softmax partition function F=sum_j exp(z_j) has complex zeros -- ``ghosts of softmax'' -- that induce logarithmic singularities in the loss and cap this radius. To make this geometry usable, we derive closed-form expressions under logit linearization along the proposed update direction. In the binary case, the exact radius is ρ^*=δ^2+ π^2/Δ_a. In the multiclass case, we obtain the lower bound ρ_a=π/Δ_a, where Δ_a=max_k a_k-min_k a_k is the spread of directional logit derivatives a_k=nabla z_kcdot v. This bound costs one Jacobian-vector product and reveals what makes a step fragile: samples that are both near a decision flip and highly sensitive to the proposed direction tighten the radius. The normalized step size r=τ/ρ_a separates safe from dangerous updates. Across six tested architectures and multiple step directions, no model fails for r<1, yet collapse appears once rge 1. Temperature scaling confirms the mechanism: normalizing by ρ_a shrinks the onset-threshold spread from standard deviation 0.992 to 0.164. A controller that enforces τleρ_a survives learning-rate spikes up to 10{,} 000times in our tests, where gradient clipping still collapses. Together, these results identify a geometric constraint on cross-entropy optimization that operates through Taylor convergence rather than Hessian curvature.

We discuss methods for modeling eclipsing binary stars using the "physical", "simplified" and "phenomenological" models. There are few realizations of the "physical" Wilson-Devinney (1971) code and its improvements, e.g. Binary Maker, Phoebe. A parameter search using the Monte-Carlo method was realized by Zola et al. (2010), which is efficient in expense of too many evaluations of the test function. We compare existing algorithms of minimization of multi-parametric functions and propose to use a "combined" algorithm, depending on if the Hessian matrix is positively determined. To study methods, a simply fast-computed function resembling the "complete" test function for the physical model. Also we adopt a simplified model of an eclipsing binary at a circular orbit assuming spherical components with an uniform brightness distribution. This model resembles more advanced models in a sense of correlated parameter estimates due to a similar topology of the test function. Such a model may be applied to detached Algol-type systems, where the tidal distortion of components is negligible.

We consider in this work quantities that can be obtained as limits of powers of parametrized matrices, for instance the inverse matrix or the logarithm of the determinant. Under the assumption of affine dependence in the parameters, we use the Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) to derive an approximation for powers of these matrices, from which we derive a nonintrusive approximation for the aforementioned limits. We derive upper bounds of the error made by the obtained formula. Finally, numerical comparisons with classical intrusive and nonintrusive approximation techniques are provided: in the considered test-cases, our algorithm performs well compared to the nonintrusive ones.

Recent years have seen a surprising connection between the physics of scattering amplitudes and a class of mathematical objects--the positive Grassmannian, positive loop Grassmannians, tree and loop Amplituhedra--which have been loosely referred to as "positive geometries". The connection between the geometry and physics is provided by a unique differential form canonically determined by the property of having logarithmic singularities (only) on all the boundaries of the space, with residues on each boundary given by the canonical form on that boundary. In this paper we initiate an exploration of "positive geometries" and "canonical forms" as objects of study in their own right in a more general mathematical setting. We give a precise definition of positive geometries and canonical forms, introduce general methods for finding forms for more complicated positive geometries from simpler ones, and present numerous examples of positive geometries in projective spaces, Grassmannians, and toric, cluster and flag varieties. We also illustrate a number of strategies for computing canonical forms which yield interesting representations for the forms associated with wide classes of positive geometries, ranging from the simplest Amplituhedra to new expressions for the volume of arbitrary convex polytopes.

Knot diagrams are among the most common visual tools in topology. Computer programs now make it possible to draw, manipulate and render them digitally, which proves to be useful in knot theory teaching and research. Still, an openly available tool to manipulate knot diagrams in a real-time, interactive way is yet to be developed. We introduce a method of operating on the geometry of the knot diagram itself without any underlying three-dimensional structure that can underpin such an application. This allows us to directly interact with vector graphics knot diagrams while at the same time computing knot invariants in ways proposed by previous work. An implementation of this method is provided.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

This paper investigates the global convergence of stepsized Newton methods for convex functions. We propose several simple stepsize schedules with fast global convergence guarantees, up to O (k^{-3}), nearly matching lower complexity bounds Omega (k^{-3.5}) of second-order methods. For cases with multiple plausible smoothness parameterizations or an unknown smoothness constant, we introduce a stepsize backtracking procedure that ensures convergence as if the optimal smoothness parameters were known.

We use tools from geometric statistics to analyze the usual estimation procedure of a template shape. This applies to shapes from landmarks, curves, surfaces, images etc. We demonstrate the asymptotic bias of the template shape estimation using the stratified geometry of the shape space. We give a Taylor expansion of the bias with respect to a parameter sigma describing the measurement error on the data. We propose two bootstrap procedures that quantify the bias and correct it, if needed. They are applicable for any type of shape data. We give a rule of thumb to provide intuition on whether the bias has to be corrected. This exhibits the parameters that control the bias' magnitude. We illustrate our results on simulated and real shape data.

We give an alternative proof of the Schoen--Simon--Yau curvature estimates and associated Bernstein-type theorems (1975), and extend the original result by including the case of 6-dimensional (stable minimal) immersions. The key step is an ε-regularity theorem, that assumes smallness of the scale-invariant L^2 norm of the second fundamental form. Further, we obtain a graph description, in the Lipschitz multi-valued sense, for any stable minimal immersion of dimension ngeq 2, that may have a singular set Σ of locally finite H^{n-2}-measure, and that is weakly close to a hyperplane. (In fact, if H^{n-2}(Σ)=0, the conclusion is strengthened to a union of smooth graphs.) This follows directly from an ε-regularity theorem, that assumes smallness of the scale-invariant L^2 tilt-excess (verified when the hypersurface is weakly close to a hyperplane). Specialising the multi-valued decomposition to the case of embeddings, we recover the Schoen--Simon theorem (1981). In both ε-regularity theorems the relevant quantity (respectively, length of the second fundamental form and tilt function) solves a non-linear PDE on the immersed minimal hypersurface. The proof is carried out intrinsically (without linearising the PDE) by implementing an iteration method à la De Giorgi (from the linear De Giorgi--Nash--Moser theory). Stability implies estimates (intrinsic weak Caccioppoli inequalities) that make the iteration effective despite the non-linear framework. (In both ε-regularity theorems the method gives explicit constants that quantify the required smallness.)

In this paper, we first study the consequence of spacetime translations and Lorentz transformations on Celestial CFT OPEs. Working with the light transforms of the operators belonging to the modified Mellin basis, we found that the leading order singularity in the OPE of such operators could be fixed purely using Poincaré symmetries owing to the non-trivial action of the translations on these operators. The OPE coefficient is then fixed using the soft limit of the correlation functions. We check that this singular structure obtained from symmetries is consistent with the OPE limit of three-point functions. This approach could potentially be useful for studying Celestial CFT without adverting to bulk physics. As another goal, we explore the significance of light transformation in Carrollian CFTs. In the special cases we considered, we show that light transformation equips us with a map between two branches of Carroll CFT in d=3 dimension at the level of correlation functions in the near coincident limit.

We advocate a strategy of bootstrapping Feynman integrals from just knowledge of their singular behavior. This approach is complementary to other bootstrap programs, which exploit non-perturbative constraints such as unitarity, or amplitude-level constraints such as gauge invariance. We begin by studying where a Feynman integral can become singular, and the behavior it exhibits near these singularities. We then characterize the space of functions that we expect the integral to evaluate to, in order to formulate an appropriate ansatz. Finally, we derive constraints on where each singularity can appear in this ansatz, and use information about the expansion of the integral around singular points in order to determine the value of all remaining free coefficients. Throughout, we highlight how constraints that have previously only been derived for integrals with generic masses can be extended to integrals involving particles of equal or vanishing mass. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach by bootstrapping a number of examples, including the four-point double box with a massive internal loop.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

Machine learning for differential equations paves the way for computationally efficient alternatives to numerical solvers, with potentially broad impacts in science and engineering. Though current algorithms typically require simulated training data tailored to a given setting, one may instead wish to learn useful information from heterogeneous sources, or from real dynamical systems observations that are messy or incomplete. In this work, we learn general-purpose representations of PDEs from heterogeneous data by implementing joint embedding methods for self-supervised learning (SSL), a framework for unsupervised representation learning that has had notable success in computer vision. Our representation outperforms baseline approaches to invariant tasks, such as regressing the coefficients of a PDE, while also improving the time-stepping performance of neural solvers. We hope that our proposed methodology will prove useful in the eventual development of general-purpose foundation models for PDEs.

Invariance and equivariance to geometrical transformations have proven to be very useful inductive biases when training (convolutional) neural network models, especially in the low-data regime. Much work has focused on the case where the symmetry group employed is compact or abelian, or both. Recent work has explored enlarging the class of transformations used to the case of Lie groups, principally through the use of their Lie algebra, as well as the group exponential and logarithm maps. The applicability of such methods to larger transformation groups is limited by the fact that depending on the group of interest G, the exponential map may not be surjective. Further limitations are encountered when G is neither compact nor abelian. Using the structure and geometry of Lie groups and their homogeneous spaces, we present a framework by which it is possible to work with such groups primarily focusing on the Lie groups G = GL^{+}(n, R) and G = SL(n, R), as well as their representation as affine transformations R^{n} rtimes G. Invariant integration as well as a global parametrization is realized by decomposing the `larger` groups into subgroups and submanifolds which can be handled individually. Under this framework, we show how convolution kernels can be parametrized to build models equivariant with respect to affine transformations. We evaluate the robustness and out-of-distribution generalisation capability of our model on the standard affine-invariant benchmark classification task, where we outperform all previous equivariant models as well as all Capsule Network proposals.

This paper demonstrates that artificial intelligence can accelerate mathematical discovery by autonomously solving an open problem in theoretical physics. We present a neuro-symbolic system, combining the Gemini Deep Think large language model with a systematic Tree Search (TS) framework and automated numerical feedback, that successfully derived novel, exact analytical solutions for the power spectrum of gravitational radiation emitted by cosmic strings. Specifically, the agent evaluated the core integral I(N,α) for arbitrary loop geometries, directly improving upon recent AI-assisted attempts BCE+25 that only yielded partial asymptotic solutions. To substantiate our methodological claims regarding AI-accelerated discovery and to ensure transparency, we detail system prompts, search constraints, and intermittent feedback loops that guided the model. The agent identified a suite of 6 different analytical methods, the most elegant of which expands the kernel in Gegenbauer polynomials C_l^{(3/2)} to naturally absorb the integrand's singularities. The methods lead to an asymptotic result for I(N,α) at large N that both agrees with numerical results and also connects to the continuous Feynman parameterization of Quantum Field Theory. We detail both the algorithmic methodology that enabled this discovery and the resulting mathematical derivations.

Starting from the Mellin-Barnes integral representation of a Feynman integral depending on set of kinematic variables z_i, we derive a system of partial differential equations w.r.t.\ new variables x_j, which parameterize the differentiable constraints z_i=y_i(x_j). In our algorithm, the powers of propagators can be considered as arbitrary parameters. Our algorithm can also be used for the reduction of multiple hypergeometric sums to sums of lower dimension, finding special values and reduction equations of hypergeometric functions in a singular locus of continuous variables, or finding systems of partial differential equations for master integrals with arbitrary powers of propagators. As an illustration, we produce a differential equation of fourth order in one variable for the one-loop two-point Feynman diagram with two different masses and arbitrary propagator powers.

In this article, we continue the development of the Riemann-Hilbert formalism for studying the asymptotics of Toeplitz+Hankel determinants with non-identical symbols, which we initiated in GI. In GI, we showed that the Riemann-Hilbert problem we formulated admits the Deift-Zhou nonlinear steepest descent analysis, but with a special restriction on the winding numbers of the associated symbols. In particular, the most natural case, namely zero winding numbers, is not allowed. A principal goal of this paper is to develop a framework that extends the asymptotic analysis of Toeplitz+Hankel determinants to a broader range of winding-number configurations. As an application, we consider the case in which the winding numbers of the Szego-type Toeplitz and Hankel symbols are zero and one, respectively, and compute the asymptotics of the norms of the corresponding system of orthogonal polynomials.

This thesis addresses a fundamental problem in deformation quantization: the difficulty of calculating the star-exponential, the symbol of the evolution operator, due to convergence issues. Inspired by the formalism that connects the star-exponential with the quantum propagator for bosonic systems, this work develops the analogous extension for the fermionic case. A rigorous method, based on Grassmann variables and coherent states, is constructed to obtain a closed-form expression for the fermionic star-exponential from its associated propagator. As a primary application, a fermionic version of the Feynman-Kac formula is derived within this formalism, allowing for the calculation of the ground state energy directly in phase space. Finally, the method is validated by successfully applying it to the simple and driven harmonic oscillators, where it is demonstrated that a simplified ("naive") approach (with an ad-hoc "remediation") is a valid weak-coupling limit of the rigorous ("meticulous") formalism, thereby providing a new and powerful computational tool for the study of fermionic systems.

We made a comparative analysis of numerical methods for multidimensional optimization. The main parameter is a number of computations of the test function to reach necessary accuracy, as it is computationally "slow". For complex functions, analytic differentiation by many parameters can cause problems associated with a significant complication of the program and thus slowing its operation. For comparison, we used the methods: "brute force" (or minimization on a regular grid), Monte Carlo, steepest descent, conjugate gradients, Brent's method (golden section search), parabolic interpolation etc. The Monte-Carlo method was applied to the eclipsing binary system AM Leo.

Many machine learning models based on neural networks exhibit scaling laws: their performance scales as power laws with respect to the sizes of the model and training data set. We use large-N field theory methods to solve a model recently proposed by Maloney, Roberts and Sully which provides a simplified setting to study neural scaling laws. Our solution extends the result in this latter paper to general nonzero values of the ridge parameter, which are essential to regularize the behavior of the model. In addition to obtaining new and more precise scaling laws, we also uncover a duality transformation at the diagrams level which explains the symmetry between model and training data set sizes. The same duality underlies recent efforts to design neural networks to simulate quantum field theories.

The aim of this article is to introduce a new methodology for constructing morphings between shapes that have identical topology. This morphing is obtained by deforming a reference shape, through the resolution of a sequence of linear elasticity equations, onto the target shape. In particular, our approach does not assume any knowledge of a boundary parametrization. Furthermore, we demonstrate how constraints can be imposed on specific points, lines and surfaces in the reference domain to ensure alignment with their counterparts in the target domain after morphing. Additionally, we show how the proposed methodology can be integrated in an offline and online paradigm, which is useful in reduced-order modeling scenarii involving variable shapes. This framework facilitates the efficient computation of the morphings in various geometric configurations, thus improving the versatility and applicability of the approach. The methodology is illustrated on the regression problem of the drag and lift coefficients of airfoils of non-parameterized variable shapes.

Neural operators have become increasingly popular in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) due to their superior capability to capture intricate mappings between function spaces over complex domains. However, the data-hungry nature of operator learning inevitably poses a bottleneck for their widespread applications. At the core of the challenge lies the absence of transferability of neural operators to new geometries. To tackle this issue, we propose operator learning with domain decomposition, a local-to-global framework to solve PDEs on arbitrary geometries. Under this framework, we devise an iterative scheme Schwarz Neural Inference (SNI). This scheme allows for partitioning of the problem domain into smaller subdomains, on which local problems can be solved with neural operators, and stitching local solutions to construct a global solution. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis of the convergence rate and error bound. We conduct extensive experiments on several representative PDEs with diverse boundary conditions and achieve remarkable geometry generalization compared to alternative methods. These analysis and experiments demonstrate the proposed framework's potential in addressing challenges related to geometry generalization and data efficiency.

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

In an earlier paper [arXiv:2511.03669] we extracted the OPE of celestial CFT operator duals of positive helicity graviton and scalar particles from the Mellin transformed relevant MHV amplitudes of conformal gravity, realised as the bosonic subsector of the Berkovits-Witten theory. A soft theorem analysis of bulk MHV amplitudes established that this conformal gravity exhibits a chiral bms_4 symmetry on the celestial sphere with the associated sl(2,R) current algebra, which acquires a non-trivial central extension, unlike the Einstein gravity. Here we construct a 2d chiral CFT free-field realisation of the relevant chiral bms_4 algebra in terms of three free scalars (ϕ_i) and three (β_i,γ_i) ghost pairs, and propose vertex operators for the positive-helicity graviton primary G^{++}_Δ(z,z) as well as the scalar primary Φ_Δ(z,z), and compute their OPEs. These OPEs reproduce exactly those obtained from the bulk conformal gravity MHV amplitudes, providing a concrete celestial dual description of its MHV sector.

The Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM) is a greedy procedure that constructs approximate representations of two-variable functions in separated form. In its classical presentation, the two variables play a non-symmetric role. In this work, we give an equivalent definition of the EIM approximation, in which the two variables play symmetric roles. Then, we give a proof for the existence of this approximation, and extend it up to the convergence of the EIM, and for any norm chosen to compute the error in the greedy step. Finally, we introduce a way to compute a separated representation in the case where the number of selected values is different for each variable. In the case of a physical field measured by sensors, this is useful to discard a broken sensor while keeping the information provided by the associated selected field.

We propose an approach for generating crochet instructions (patterns) from an input 3D model. We focus on Amigurumi, which are knitted stuffed toys. Given a closed triangle mesh, and a single point specified by the user, we generate crochet instructions, which when knitted and stuffed result in a toy similar to the input geometry. Our approach relies on constructing the geometry and connectivity of a Crochet Graph, which is then translated into a crochet pattern. We segment the shape automatically into chrochetable components, which are connected using the join-as-you-go method, requiring no additional sewing. We demonstrate that our method is applicable to a large variety of shapes and geometries, and yields easily crochetable patterns.

We present Neural Spectral Methods, a technique to solve parametric Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), grounded in classical spectral methods. Our method uses orthogonal bases to learn PDE solutions as mappings between spectral coefficients. In contrast to current machine learning approaches which enforce PDE constraints by minimizing the numerical quadrature of the residuals in the spatiotemporal domain, we leverage Parseval's identity and introduce a new training strategy through a spectral loss. Our spectral loss enables more efficient differentiation through the neural network, and substantially reduces training complexity. At inference time, the computational cost of our method remains constant, regardless of the spatiotemporal resolution of the domain. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous machine learning approaches in terms of speed and accuracy by one to two orders of magnitude on multiple different problems. When compared to numerical solvers of the same accuracy, our method demonstrates a 10times increase in performance speed.

In an unbounded plane, straight lines are used extensively for mathematical analysis. They are tools of convenience. However, those with high slope values become unbounded at a faster rate than the independent variable. So, straight lines, in this work, are made to be bounded by introducing a parametric nonlinear term that is positive. The straight lines are transformed into bounded nonlinear curves that become unbounded at a much slower rate than the independent variable. This transforming equation can be expressed as a continued fraction of straight lines. The continued fraction is real-valued and converges to the solutions of the transforming equation. Following Euler's method, the continued fraction has been reduced into an infinite series. The usefulness of the bounding nature of continued fraction is demonstrated by solving the problem of image classification. Parameters estimated on the Fashion-MNIST dataset of greyscale images using continued fraction of regression lines have less variance, converge quickly and are more accurate than the linear counterpart. Moreover, this multi-dimensional parametric estimation problem can be expressed on xy- plane using the parameters of the continued fraction and patterns emerge on planar plots.

We consider a family of linear systems A_mu alpha=C with system matrix A_mu depending on a parameter mu and for simplicity parameter-independent right-hand side C. These linear systems typically result from the finite-dimensional approximation of a parameter-dependent boundary-value problem. We derive a procedure based on the Empirical Interpolation Method to obtain a separated representation of the system matrix in the form A_muapproxsum_{m}beta_m(mu)A_{mu_m} for some selected values of the parameter. Such a separated representation is in particular useful in the Reduced Basis Method. The procedure is called nonintrusive since it only requires to access the matrices A_{mu_m}. As such, it offers a crucial advantage over existing approaches that instead derive separated representations requiring to enter the code at the level of assembly. Numerical examples illustrate the performance of our new procedure on a simple one-dimensional boundary-value problem and on three-dimensional acoustic scattering problems solved by a boundary element method.

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

The problem of computing optimal orthogonal approximation to a given matrix has attracted growing interest in machine learning. Notable applications include the recent Muon optimizer or Riemannian optimization on the Stiefel manifold. Among existing approaches, the Newton-Schulz iteration has emerged as a particularly effective solution, as it relies solely on matrix multiplications and thus achieves high computational efficiency on GPU hardware. Despite its efficiency, the method has inherent limitations - its coefficients are fixed and thus not optimized for a given matrix. In this paper we address this issue by proposing a Chebyshev-optimized version of Newton-Schulz (CANS). Based on the Chebyshev's alternance theorem, we theoretically derive optimal coefficients for the 3-rd order Newton-Schulz iteration and apply a Remez algorithm to compute optimal higher-degree polynomials. We leverage these polynomials to construct controlled approximate orthogonalization schemes, which is of interest in deep learning applications. Practically, we demonstrate the method's effectiveness in two key applications: orthogonalization in the Muon optimizer, and providing an efficient retraction alternative for Riemannian optimization on the Stiefel manifold.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

In this paper, a PDE-ODE model with discontinuity in the flux as well as a flux constraint is analyzed. A modified Riemann solution is proposed and the existence of a weak solution to the Cauchy problem is rigorously investigated using the wavefront tracking scheme.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

A universal class of light-ray operators formed from null integrals of the stress tensor is constructed in generic interacting Lorentzian conformal field theories in four spacetime dimensions. This class of light-ray operators generates the wedge algebra of {rm w}_{1+infty}, which was recently identified among the asymptotic symmetries of asymptotically flat spacetimes. In four-dimensional conformal field theories with an additional spin-one conserved current, a second universal class of light-ray operators is constructed and shown to generate the ''S algebra,'' the gauge-theoretic analog of {rm w}_{1+infty}. Finally, a precise relation is established between the one-point functions of these light-ray operators in scalar states and the universal soft factors in the infinite tower of soft graviton theorems. The results presented in this paper will be accompanied by detailed calculations and proofs in a longer forthcoming work.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

Proving geometric theorems constitutes a hallmark of visual reasoning combining both intuitive and logical skills. Therefore, automated theorem proving of Olympiad-level geometry problems is considered a notable milestone in human-level automated reasoning. The introduction of AlphaGeometry, a neuro-symbolic model trained with 100 million synthetic samples, marked a major breakthrough. It solved 25 of 30 International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) problems whereas the reported baseline based on Wu's method solved only ten. In this note, we revisit the IMO-AG-30 Challenge introduced with AlphaGeometry, and find that Wu's method is surprisingly strong. Wu's method alone can solve 15 problems, and some of them are not solved by any of the other methods. This leads to two key findings: (i) Combining Wu's method with the classic synthetic methods of deductive databases and angle, ratio, and distance chasing solves 21 out of 30 methods by just using a CPU-only laptop with a time limit of 5 minutes per problem. Essentially, this classic method solves just 4 problems less than AlphaGeometry and establishes the first fully symbolic baseline strong enough to rival the performance of an IMO silver medalist. (ii) Wu's method even solves 2 of the 5 problems that AlphaGeometry failed to solve. Thus, by combining AlphaGeometry with Wu's method we set a new state-of-the-art for automated theorem proving on IMO-AG-30, solving 27 out of 30 problems, the first AI method which outperforms an IMO gold medalist.

This paper presents the first numerical realization of Suzuki's Weil-Quadratic-Form operator, a candidate for the Hilbert--Pólya program linking spectral positivity to the Riemann Hypothesis (RH). Suzuki's 2026 construction was purely theoretical; here, the operator is instantiated via P1 finite-element discretization and Richardson extrapolation. Key results include: (R1) In the prime-free regime, the spectrum follows a closed Archimedean law A_k(a) = log(1/a) + log(k-2) + B_0 + O(a), with B_0 = log q - 2log 2, confirmed to 30-digit precision. (R2) A Mellin double-pole argument proves the head coefficient B(ν) and shows B_0 depends only on the conductor q, independent of the Archimedean parameter. (R2b) The degree d of an L-function appears directly as the logarithmic slope of the spectrum. (R3) Total spectral intensity follows the prime number theorem, S(a) sim (2a)^3/6. (R4) Nontrivial zeros are not eigenvalues but occur in the explicit-formula error term of the prime symbol. (R5) The best-match line σ^*(a) descends toward the critical line. (R6) Weil's positivity criterion is realized in operator form: bounded residual growth corresponds to all zeros on the line, while an injected off-line zero causes exponential blow-up. (R7) The lowest eigenvalue λ_1(a) is strictly positive, decays superexponentially, and passes smoothly through the first prime threshold. (R8) The characteristic function W(a,0;z) is computed for the first time, with all zeros confirmed real. (R9) Indirect traces of GUE statistics appear in the moment structure, even where direct detection is blocked. The authors emphasize that this work does not prove RH. All results are Archimedean and universal, with significance lying in the faithful numerical realization of classical identities rather than new arithmetic.

New geometric methods for fast evaluation of derivatives of polynomial and rational B\'{e}zier curves are proposed. They apply an algorithm for evaluating polynomial or rational B\'{e}zier curves, which was recently given by the authors. Numerical tests show that the new approach is more efficient than the methods which use the famous de Casteljau algorithm. The algorithms work well even for high-order derivatives of rational B\'{e}zier curves of high degrees.

Solving complex Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) accurately and efficiently is an essential and challenging problem in all scientific and engineering disciplines. Mesh movement methods provide the capability to improve the accuracy of the numerical solution without increasing the overall mesh degree of freedom count. Conventional sophisticated mesh movement methods are extremely expensive and struggle to handle scenarios with complex boundary geometries. However, existing learning-based methods require re-training from scratch given a different PDE type or boundary geometry, which limits their applicability, and also often suffer from robustness issues in the form of inverted elements. In this paper, we introduce the Universal Mesh Movement Network (UM2N), which -- once trained -- can be applied in a non-intrusive, zero-shot manner to move meshes with different size distributions and structures, for solvers applicable to different PDE types and boundary geometries. UM2N consists of a Graph Transformer (GT) encoder for extracting features and a Graph Attention Network (GAT) based decoder for moving the mesh. We evaluate our method on advection and Navier-Stokes based examples, as well as a real-world tsunami simulation case. Our method outperforms existing learning-based mesh movement methods in terms of the benchmarks described above. In comparison to the conventional sophisticated Monge-Amp\`ere PDE-solver based method, our approach not only significantly accelerates mesh movement, but also proves effective in scenarios where the conventional method fails. Our project page is at https://erizmr.github.io/UM2N/.