Daily Papers

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models leverage the rich world knowledge of pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) to enable instruction-following robotic manipulation. However, the structural mismatch between VLM semantic spaces and embodied control policies often hinders the learning of precise perception--action mappings. To address this challenge, we propose AffordanceVLA, a unified framework that introduces structured affordance forecasting as a task-oriented intermediate representation to establish a more precise and robust perception--action mapping. Specifically, we progressively model manipulation priors through three complementary components: 1) Which2Act for object-centric grounding via visual latent prediction to suppress distractions; 2) Where2Act for 2D interaction localization via affordance map estimation; and 3) How2Act for 3D geometric reasoning to guide manipulation policies. These affordance cues provide spatially grounded, semantically conditioned, and action-coupled intermediate representations, thereby naturally bridging vision, language and action. We integrate these modules into a Mixture-of-Transformer (MoT) architecture with specialized experts and train the model using a three-stage training strategy with a progressive data curriculum. To overcome the scarcity of dense affordance labels in robotic datasets, we also develop a robust automated data augmentation pipeline. Extensive experiments on simulation and real-world demonstrate that AffordanceVLA achieves strong performance across diverse manipulation scenarios.

We introduce RoboBrain 2.0, our latest generation of embodied vision-language foundation models, designed to unify perception, reasoning, and planning for complex embodied tasks in physical environments. It comes in two variants: a lightweight 7B model and a full-scale 32B model, featuring a heterogeneous architecture with a vision encoder and a language model. Despite its compact size, RoboBrain 2.0 achieves strong performance across a wide spectrum of embodied reasoning tasks. On both spatial and temporal benchmarks, the 32B variant achieves leading results, surpassing prior open-source and proprietary models. In particular, it supports key real-world embodied AI capabilities, including spatial understanding (e.g., affordance prediction, spatial referring, trajectory forecasting) and temporal decision-making (e.g., closed-loop interaction, multi-agent long-horizon planning, and scene graph updating). This report details the model architecture, data construction, multi-stage training strategies, infrastructure and practical applications. We hope RoboBrain 2.0 advances embodied AI research and serves as a practical step toward building generalist embodied agents. The code, checkpoint and benchmark are available at https://superrobobrain.github.io.

Affordance grounding refers to the task of finding the area of an object with which one can interact. It is a fundamental but challenging task, as a successful solution requires the comprehensive understanding of a scene in multiple aspects including detection, localization, and recognition of objects with their parts, of geo-spatial configuration/layout of the scene, of 3D shapes and physics, as well as of the functionality and potential interaction of the objects and humans. Much of the knowledge is hidden and beyond the image content with the supervised labels from a limited training set. In this paper, we make an attempt to improve the generalization capability of the current affordance grounding by taking the advantage of the rich world, abstract, and human-object-interaction knowledge from pretrained large-scale vision language models. Under the AGD20K benchmark, our proposed model demonstrates a significant performance gain over the competing methods for in-the-wild object affordance grounding. We further demonstrate it can ground affordance for objects from random Internet images, even if both objects and actions are unseen during training. Project site: https://jasonqsy.github.io/AffordanceLLM/

Affordance, defined as the potential actions that an object offers, is crucial for robotic manipulation tasks. A deep understanding of affordance can lead to more intelligent AI systems. For example, such knowledge directs an agent to grasp a knife by the handle for cutting and by the blade when passing it to someone. In this paper, we present a streamlined affordance learning system that encompasses data collection, effective model training, and robot deployment. First, we collect training data from egocentric videos in an automatic manner. Different from previous methods that focus only on the object graspable affordance and represent it as coarse heatmaps, we cover both graspable (e.g., object handles) and functional affordances (e.g., knife blades, hammer heads) and extract data with precise segmentation masks. We then propose an effective model, termed Geometry-guided Affordance Transformer (GKT), to train on the collected data. GKT integrates an innovative Depth Feature Injector (DFI) to incorporate 3D shape and geometric priors, enhancing the model's understanding of affordances. To enable affordance-oriented manipulation, we further introduce Aff-Grasp, a framework that combines GKT with a grasp generation model. For comprehensive evaluation, we create an affordance evaluation dataset with pixel-wise annotations, and design real-world tasks for robot experiments. The results show that GKT surpasses the state-of-the-art by 15.9% in mIoU, and Aff-Grasp achieves high success rates of 95.5% in affordance prediction and 77.1% in successful grasping among 179 trials, including evaluations with seen, unseen objects, and cluttered scenes.

Affordance prediction, which identifies interaction regions on objects based on language instructions, is critical for embodied AI. Prevailing end-to-end models couple high-level reasoning and low-level grounding into a single monolithic pipeline and rely on training over annotated datasets, which leads to poor generalization on novel objects and unseen environments. In this paper, we move beyond this paradigm by proposing A4-Agent, a training-free agentic framework that decouples affordance prediction into a three-stage pipeline. Our framework coordinates specialized foundation models at test time: (1) a Dreamer that employs generative models to visualize how an interaction would look; (2) a Thinker that utilizes large vision-language models to decide what object part to interact with; and (3) a Spotter that orchestrates vision foundation models to precisely locate where the interaction area is. By leveraging the complementary strengths of pre-trained models without any task-specific fine-tuning, our zero-shot framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art supervised methods across multiple benchmarks and demonstrates robust generalization to real-world settings.

Affordance grounding focuses on predicting the specific regions of objects that are associated with the actions to be performed by robots. It plays a vital role in the fields of human-robot interaction, human-object interaction, embodied manipulation, and embodied perception. Existing models often neglect the affordance shared among different objects because they lack the Chain-of-Thought(CoT) reasoning abilities, limiting their out-of-domain (OOD) generalization and explicit reasoning capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose Affordance-R1, the first unified affordance grounding framework that integrates cognitive CoT guided Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) within a reinforcement learning paradigm. Specifically, we designed a sophisticated affordance function, which contains format, perception, and cognition rewards to effectively guide optimization directions. Furthermore, we constructed a high-quality affordance-centric reasoning dataset, ReasonAff, to support training. Trained exclusively via reinforcement learning with GRPO and without explicit reasoning data, Affordance-R1 achieves robust zero-shot generalization and exhibits emergent test-time reasoning capabilities. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms well-established methods and exhibits open-world generalization. To the best of our knowledge, Affordance-R1 is the first to integrate GRPO-based RL with reasoning into affordance reasoning. The code of our method and our dataset is released on https://github.com/hq-King/Affordance-R1.

Affordance understanding bridges visual perception and physical action, serving as an explainable interface for robot manipulation in open and unstructured real-world environments. Yet, building an affordance foundation model that not only understands where and how the interaction should happen, but also generalizes across diverse environments, objects, and tasks, remains a long-standing research challenge. Existing methods typically address only part of this challenge, either localizing task-relevant regions without specifying executable motion, or predicting motion but with limited scalability. In this paper, we present ourmodel, a step towards an affordance foundation model for functionality understanding. From a single RGB-D observation and a language task description, ourmodel predicts a task-conditional functional mask (where to interact) and a 3D post-contact motion curve (how to interact). To support open-world generalization, we build a large-scale standardized data pipeline that converts heterogeneous robot, human, simulation, and real-world scan data into a shared affordance schema with language, masks, and object-centric 3D motion labels. We evaluate ourmodel from three aspects: for affordance segmentation, ourmodel outperforms all baselines by a large margin across 8 test sets from 4 benchmarks, improving mean gIoU/cIoU by +23.9/+26.3; for contact-point prediction, it predicts substantially more accurate points, with a 12.7--61.3% hit-rate gain over the best baseline; and for 3D motion, it achieves the best performance on all three test sets. ourmodel can be deployed for real-world robot manipulation without finetuning for robot embodiment or using task-specific heuristics, demonstrating the ability to adapt to open-world affordance tasks. Project page: https://www.zhaoningwang.com/AFUN

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Affordance denotes the potential interactions inherent in objects. The perception of affordance can enable intelligent agents to navigate and interact with new environments efficiently. Weakly supervised affordance grounding teaches agents the concept of affordance without costly pixel-level annotations, but with exocentric images. Although recent advances in weakly supervised affordance grounding yielded promising results, there remain challenges including the requirement for paired exocentric and egocentric image dataset, and the complexity in grounding diverse affordances for a single object. To address them, we propose INTeraction Relationship-aware weakly supervised Affordance grounding (INTRA). Unlike prior arts, INTRA recasts this problem as representation learning to identify unique features of interactions through contrastive learning with exocentric images only, eliminating the need for paired datasets. Moreover, we leverage vision-language model embeddings for performing affordance grounding flexibly with any text, designing text-conditioned affordance map generation to reflect interaction relationship for contrastive learning and enhancing robustness with our text synonym augmentation. Our method outperformed prior arts on diverse datasets such as AGD20K, IIT-AFF, CAD and UMD. Additionally, experimental results demonstrate that our method has remarkable domain scalability for synthesized images / illustrations and is capable of performing affordance grounding for novel interactions and objects.

Affordance prediction serves as a critical bridge between perception and action in embodied AI. However, existing research is confined to pinhole camera models, which suffer from narrow Fields of View (FoV) and fragmented observations, often missing critical holistic environmental context. In this paper, we present the first exploration into Panoramic Affordance Prediction, utilizing 360-degree imagery to capture global spatial relationships and holistic scene understanding. To facilitate this novel task, we first introduce PAP-12K, a large-scale benchmark dataset containing over 1,000 ultra-high-resolution (12k, 11904 x 5952) panoramic images with over 12k carefully annotated QA pairs and affordance masks. Furthermore, we propose PAP, a training-free, coarse-to-fine pipeline inspired by the human foveal visual system to tackle the ultra-high resolution and severe distortion inherent in panoramic images. PAP employs recursive visual routing via grid prompting to progressively locate targets, applies an adaptive gaze mechanism to rectify local geometric distortions, and utilizes a cascaded grounding pipeline to extract precise instance-level masks. Experimental results on PAP-12K reveal that existing affordance prediction methods designed for standard perspective images suffer severe performance degradation and fail due to the unique challenges of panoramic vision. In contrast, PAP framework effectively overcomes these obstacles, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines and highlighting the immense potential of panoramic perception for robust embodied intelligence.

Perceiving and manipulating 3D articulated objects in diverse environments is essential for home-assistant robots. Recent studies have shown that point-level affordance provides actionable priors for downstream manipulation tasks. However, existing works primarily focus on single-object scenarios with homogeneous agents, overlooking the realistic constraints imposed by the environment and the agent's morphology, e.g., occlusions and physical limitations. In this paper, we propose an environment-aware affordance framework that incorporates both object-level actionable priors and environment constraints. Unlike object-centric affordance approaches, learning environment-aware affordance faces the challenge of combinatorial explosion due to the complexity of various occlusions, characterized by their quantities, geometries, positions and poses. To address this and enhance data efficiency, we introduce a novel contrastive affordance learning framework capable of training on scenes containing a single occluder and generalizing to scenes with complex occluder combinations. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in learning affordance considering environment constraints. Project page at https://chengkaiacademycity.github.io/EnvAwareAfford/

Grounding 3D object affordance seeks to locate objects' ''action possibilities'' regions in the 3D space, which serves as a link between perception and operation for embodied agents. Existing studies primarily focus on connecting visual affordances with geometry structures, e.g. relying on annotations to declare interactive regions of interest on the object and establishing a mapping between the regions and affordances. However, the essence of learning object affordance is to understand how to use it, and the manner that detaches interactions is limited in generalization. Normally, humans possess the ability to perceive object affordances in the physical world through demonstration images or videos. Motivated by this, we introduce a novel task setting: grounding 3D object affordance from 2D interactions in images, which faces the challenge of anticipating affordance through interactions of different sources. To address this problem, we devise a novel Interaction-driven 3D Affordance Grounding Network (IAG), which aligns the region feature of objects from different sources and models the interactive contexts for 3D object affordance grounding. Besides, we collect a Point-Image Affordance Dataset (PIAD) to support the proposed task. Comprehensive experiments on PIAD demonstrate the reliability of the proposed task and the superiority of our method. The project is available at https://github.com/yyvhang/IAGNet.

Affordance detection refers to identifying the potential action possibilities of objects in an image, which is a crucial ability for robot perception and manipulation. To empower robots with this ability in unseen scenarios, we first study the challenging one-shot affordance detection problem in this paper, i.e., given a support image that depicts the action purpose, all objects in a scene with the common affordance should be detected. To this end, we devise a One-Shot Affordance Detection Network (OSAD-Net) that firstly estimates the human action purpose and then transfers it to help detect the common affordance from all candidate images. Through collaboration learning, OSAD-Net can capture the common characteristics between objects having the same underlying affordance and learn a good adaptation capability for perceiving unseen affordances. Besides, we build a large-scale Purpose-driven Affordance Dataset v2 (PADv2) by collecting and labeling 30k images from 39 affordance and 103 object categories. With complex scenes and rich annotations, our PADv2 dataset can be used as a test bed to benchmark affordance detection methods and may also facilitate downstream vision tasks, such as scene understanding, action recognition, and robot manipulation. Specifically, we conducted comprehensive experiments on PADv2 dataset by including 11 advanced models from several related research fields. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our model over previous representative ones in terms of both objective metrics and visual quality. The benchmark suite is available at https://github.com/lhc1224/OSAD Net.

Affordance grounding-localizing object regions based on natural language descriptions of interactions-is a critical challenge for enabling intelligent agents to understand and interact with their environments. However, this task remains challenging due to the need for fine-grained part-level localization, the ambiguity arising from multiple valid interaction regions, and the scarcity of large-scale datasets. In this work, we introduce Affogato, a large-scale benchmark comprising 150K instances, annotated with open-vocabulary text descriptions and corresponding 3D affordance heatmaps across a diverse set of objects and interactions. Building on this benchmark, we develop simple yet effective vision-language models that leverage pretrained part-aware vision backbones and a text-conditional heatmap decoder. Our models trained with the Affogato dataset achieve promising performance on the existing 2D and 3D benchmarks, and notably, exhibit effectiveness in open-vocabulary cross-domain generalization. The Affogato dataset is shared in public: https://huggingface.co/datasets/project-affogato/affogato

General robotic grasping systems require accurate object affordance perception in diverse open-world scenarios following human instructions. However, current studies suffer from the problem of lacking reasoning-based large-scale affordance prediction data, leading to considerable concern about open-world effectiveness. To address this limitation, we build a large-scale grasping-oriented affordance segmentation benchmark with human-like instructions, named RAGNet. It contains 273k images, 180 categories, and 26k reasoning instructions. The images cover diverse embodied data domains, such as wild, robot, ego-centric, and even simulation data. They are carefully annotated with an affordance map, while the difficulty of language instructions is largely increased by removing their category name and only providing functional descriptions. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive affordance-based grasping framework, named AffordanceNet, which consists of a VLM pre-trained on our massive affordance data and a grasping network that conditions an affordance map to grasp the target. Extensive experiments on affordance segmentation benchmarks and real-robot manipulation tasks show that our model has a powerful open-world generalization ability. Our data and code is available at https://github.com/wudongming97/AffordanceNet.

3D affordance grounding aims to highlight the actionable regions on 3D objects, which is crucial for robotic manipulation. Previous research primarily focused on learning affordance knowledge from static cues such as language and images, which struggle to provide sufficient dynamic interaction context that can reveal temporal and causal cues. To alleviate this predicament, we collect a comprehensive video-based 3D affordance dataset, VIDA, which contains 38K human-object-interaction videos covering 16 affordance types, 38 object categories, and 22K point clouds. Based on VIDA, we propose a strong baseline: VideoAfford, which activates multimodal large language models with additional affordance segmentation capabilities, enabling both world knowledge reasoning and fine-grained affordance grounding within a unified framework. To enhance action understanding capability, we leverage a latent action encoder to extract dynamic interaction priors from HOI videos. Moreover, we introduce a spatial-aware loss function to enable VideoAfford to obtain comprehensive 3D spatial knowledge. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms well-established methods and exhibits strong open-world generalization with affordance reasoning abilities. All datasets and code will be publicly released to advance research in this area.

Time series forecasting is a foundational task across domains, such as finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. While recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalisation through large-scale pretraining, existing models operate predominantly in a unimodal setting, ignoring the rich multimodal context, such as visual and textual signals, that often accompanies time series data in real-world scenarios. This paper introduces a novel parameter-efficient multimodal framework, UniCast, that extends TSFMs to jointly leverage time series, vision, and text modalities for enhanced forecasting performance. Our method integrates modality-specific embeddings from pretrained Vision and Text Encoders with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, enabling efficient adaptation with minimal parameter updates. This design not only preserves the generalisation strength of the foundation model but also enables effective cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments across diverse time-series forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that UniCast consistently and significantly outperforms all existing TSFM baselines. The findings highlight the critical role of multimodal context in advancing the next generation of general-purpose time series forecasters.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

When interacting with objects, humans effectively reason about which regions of objects are viable for an intended action, i.e., the affordance regions of the object. They can also account for subtle differences in object regions based on the task to be performed and whether one or two hands need to be used. However, current vision-based affordance prediction methods often reduce the problem to naive object part segmentation. In this work, we propose a framework for extracting affordance data from human activity video datasets. Our extracted 2HANDS dataset contains precise object affordance region segmentations and affordance class-labels as narrations of the activity performed. The data also accounts for bimanual actions, i.e., two hands co-ordinating and interacting with one or more objects. We present a VLM-based affordance prediction model, 2HandedAfforder, trained on the dataset and demonstrate superior performance over baselines in affordance region segmentation for various activities. Finally, we show that our predicted affordance regions are actionable, i.e., can be used by an agent performing a task, through demonstration in robotic manipulation scenarios.

3D Affordance detection is a challenging problem with broad applications on various robotic tasks. Existing methods typically formulate the detection paradigm as a label-based semantic segmentation task. This paradigm relies on predefined labels and lacks the ability to comprehend complex natural language, resulting in limited generalization in open-world scene. To address these limitations, we reformulate the traditional affordance detection paradigm into Instruction Reasoning Affordance Segmentation (IRAS) task. This task is designed to output a affordance mask region given a query reasoning text, which avoids fixed categories of input labels. We accordingly propose the 3D-AffordanceLLM (3D-ADLLM), a framework designed for reasoning affordance detection in 3D open-scene. Specifically, 3D-ADLLM introduces large language models (LLMs) to 3D affordance perception with a custom-designed decoder for generating affordance masks, thus achieving open-world reasoning affordance detection. In addition, given the scarcity of 3D affordance datasets for training large models, we seek to extract knowledge from general segmentation data and transfer it to affordance detection. Thus, we propose a multi-stage training strategy that begins with a novel pre-training task, i.e., Referring Object Part Segmentation~(ROPS). This stage is designed to equip the model with general recognition and segmentation capabilities at the object-part level. Then followed by fine-tuning with the IRAS task, 3D-ADLLM obtains the reasoning ability for affordance detection. In summary, 3D-ADLLM leverages the rich world knowledge and human-object interaction reasoning ability of LLMs, achieving approximately an 8\% improvement in mIoU on open-vocabulary affordance detection tasks.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

We introduce a pipeline that enhances a general-purpose Vision Language Model, GPT-4V(ision), by integrating observations of human actions to facilitate robotic manipulation. This system analyzes videos of humans performing tasks and creates executable robot programs that incorporate affordance insights. The computation starts by analyzing the videos with GPT-4V to convert environmental and action details into text, followed by a GPT-4-empowered task planner. In the following analyses, vision systems reanalyze the video with the task plan. Object names are grounded using an open-vocabulary object detector, while focus on the hand-object relation helps to detect the moment of grasping and releasing. This spatiotemporal grounding allows the vision systems to further gather affordance data (e.g., grasp type, way points, and body postures). Experiments across various scenarios demonstrate this method's efficacy in achieving real robots' operations from human demonstrations in a zero-shot manner. The prompts of GPT-4V/GPT-4 are available at this project page: https://microsoft.github.io/GPT4Vision-Robot-Manipulation-Prompts/

Affordance understanding, the task of identifying actionable regions on 3D objects, plays a vital role in allowing robotic systems to engage with and operate within the physical world. Although Visual Language Models (VLMs) have excelled in high-level reasoning and long-horizon planning for robotic manipulation, they still fall short in grasping the nuanced physical properties required for effective human-robot interaction. In this paper, we introduce PAVLM (Point cloud Affordance Vision-Language Model), an innovative framework that utilizes the extensive multimodal knowledge embedded in pre-trained language models to enhance 3D affordance understanding of point cloud. PAVLM integrates a geometric-guided propagation module with hidden embeddings from large language models (LLMs) to enrich visual semantics. On the language side, we prompt Llama-3.1 models to generate refined context-aware text, augmenting the instructional input with deeper semantic cues. Experimental results on the 3D-AffordanceNet benchmark demonstrate that PAVLM outperforms baseline methods for both full and partial point clouds, particularly excelling in its generalization to novel open-world affordance tasks of 3D objects. For more information, visit our project site: pavlm-source.github.io.

Effective human-agent collaboration in physical environments requires understanding not only what to act upon, but also where the actionable elements are and how to interact with them. Existing approaches often operate at the object level or disjointedly handle fine-grained affordance reasoning, lacking coherent, instruction-driven grounding and reasoning. In this work, we introduce a new task: Fine-grained 3D Embodied Reasoning, which requires an agent to predict, for each referenced affordance element in a 3D scene, a structured triplet comprising its spatial location, motion type, and motion axis, based on a task instruction. To solve this task, we propose AffordBot, a novel framework that integrates Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) with a tailored chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning paradigm. To bridge the gap between 3D input and 2D-compatible MLLMs, we render surround-view images of the scene and project 3D element candidates into these views, forming a rich visual representation aligned with the scene geometry. Our CoT pipeline begins with an active perception stage, prompting the MLLM to select the most informative viewpoint based on the instruction, before proceeding with step-by-step reasoning to localize affordance elements and infer plausible interaction motions. Evaluated on the SceneFun3D dataset, AffordBot achieves state-of-the-art performance, demonstrating strong generalization and physically grounded reasoning with only 3D point cloud input and MLLMs.

Affordance learning is a complex challenge in many applications, where existing approaches primarily focus on the geometric structures, visual knowledge, and affordance labels of objects to determine interactable regions. However, extending this learning capability to a scene is significantly more complicated, as incorporating object- and scene-level semantics is not straightforward. In this work, we introduce AffordBridge, a large-scale dataset with 291,637 functional interaction annotations across 685 high-resolution indoor scenes in the form of point clouds. Our affordance annotations are complemented by RGB images that are linked to the same instances within the scenes. Building upon our dataset, we propose AffordMatcher, an affordance learning method that establishes coherent semantic correspondences between image-based and point cloud-based instances for keypoint matching, enabling a more precise identification of affordance regions based on cues, so-called visual signifiers. Experimental results on our dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to other methods.

A dexterous hand capable of generalizable grasping objects is fundamental for the development of general-purpose embodied AI. However, previous methods focus narrowly on low-level grasp stability metrics, neglecting affordance-aware positioning and human-like poses which are crucial for downstream manipulation. To address these limitations, we propose AffordDex, a novel framework with two-stage training that learns a universal grasping policy with an inherent understanding of both motion priors and object affordances. In the first stage, a trajectory imitator is pre-trained on a large corpus of human hand motions to instill a strong prior for natural movement. In the second stage, a residual module is trained to adapt these general human-like motions to specific object instances. This refinement is critically guided by two components: our Negative Affordance-aware Segmentation (NAA) module, which identifies functionally inappropriate contact regions, and a privileged teacher-student distillation process that ensures the final vision-based policy is highly successful. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AffordDex not only achieves universal dexterous grasping but also remains remarkably human-like in posture and functionally appropriate in contact location. As a result, AffordDex significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across seen objects, unseen instances, and even entirely novel categories.

How human interact with objects depends on the functional roles of the target objects, which introduces the problem of affordance-aware hand-object interaction. It requires a large number of human demonstrations for the learning and understanding of plausible and appropriate hand-object interactions. In this work, we present AffordPose, a large-scale dataset of hand-object interactions with affordance-driven hand pose. We first annotate the specific part-level affordance labels for each object, e.g. twist, pull, handle-grasp, etc, instead of the general intents such as use or handover, to indicate the purpose and guide the localization of the hand-object interactions. The fine-grained hand-object interactions reveal the influence of hand-centered affordances on the detailed arrangement of the hand poses, yet also exhibit a certain degree of diversity. We collect a total of 26.7K hand-object interactions, each including the 3D object shape, the part-level affordance label, and the manually adjusted hand poses. The comprehensive data analysis shows the common characteristics and diversity of hand-object interactions per affordance via the parameter statistics and contacting computation. We also conduct experiments on the tasks of hand-object affordance understanding and affordance-oriented hand-object interaction generation, to validate the effectiveness of our dataset in learning the fine-grained hand-object interactions. Project page: https://github.com/GentlesJan/AffordPose.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Understanding the ability of humans to use objects is crucial for AI to improve daily life. Existing studies for learning such ability focus on human-object patterns (e.g., contact, spatial relation, orientation) in static situations, and learning Human-Object Interaction (HOI) patterns over time (i.e., movement of human and object) is relatively less explored. In this paper, we introduce a novel type of affordance named Dynamic Affordance. For a given input 3D object mesh, we learn dynamic affordance which models the distribution of both (1) human motion and (2) human-guided object pose during interactions. As a core idea, we present a method to learn the 3D dynamic affordance from synthetically generated 2D videos, leveraging a pre-trained video diffusion model. Specifically, we propose a pipeline that first generates 2D HOI videos from the 3D object and then lifts them into 3D to generate 4D HOI samples. Once we generate diverse 4D HOI samples on various target objects, we train our DAViD, where we present a method based on the Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) module for pre-trained human motion diffusion model (MDM) and an object pose diffusion model with human pose guidance. Our motion diffusion model is extended for multi-object interactions, demonstrating the advantage of our pipeline with LoRA for combining the concepts of object usage. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate our DAViD outperforms the baselines in generating human motion with HOIs.

3D affordance reasoning is essential in associating human instructions with the functional regions of 3D objects, facilitating precise, task-oriented manipulations in embodied AI. However, current methods, which predominantly depend on sparse 3D point clouds, exhibit limited generalizability and robustness due to their sensitivity to coordinate variations and the inherent sparsity of the data. By contrast, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) delivers high-fidelity, real-time rendering with minimal computational overhead by representing scenes as dense, continuous distributions. This positions 3DGS as a highly effective approach for capturing fine-grained affordance details and improving recognition accuracy. Nevertheless, its full potential remains largely untapped due to the absence of large-scale, 3DGS-specific affordance datasets. To overcome these limitations, we present 3DAffordSplat, the first large-scale, multi-modal dataset tailored for 3DGS-based affordance reasoning. This dataset includes 23,677 Gaussian instances, 8,354 point cloud instances, and 6,631 manually annotated affordance labels, encompassing 21 object categories and 18 affordance types. Building upon this dataset, we introduce AffordSplatNet, a novel model specifically designed for affordance reasoning using 3DGS representations. AffordSplatNet features an innovative cross-modal structure alignment module that exploits structural consistency priors to align 3D point cloud and 3DGS representations, resulting in enhanced affordance recognition accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the 3DAffordSplat dataset significantly advances affordance learning within the 3DGS domain, while AffordSplatNet consistently outperforms existing methods across both seen and unseen settings, highlighting its robust generalization capabilities.

Robotic manipulation and navigation are fundamental capabilities of embodied intelligence, enabling effective robot interactions with the physical world. Achieving these capabilities requires a cohesive understanding of the environment, including object recognition to localize target objects, object affordances to identify potential interaction areas and spatial affordances to discern optimal areas for both object placement and robot movement. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) excel at high-level task planning and scene understanding, they often struggle to infer actionable positions for physical interaction, such as functional grasping points and permissible placement regions. This limitation stems from the lack of fine-grained annotations for object and spatial affordances in their training datasets. To tackle this challenge, we introduce RoboAfford++, a generative AI-enhanced dataset for multimodal affordance learning for both robotic manipulation and navigation. Our dataset comprises 869,987 images paired with 2.0 million question answering (QA) annotations, covering three critical tasks: object affordance recognition to identify target objects based on attributes and spatial relationships, object affordance prediction to pinpoint functional parts for manipulation, and spatial affordance localization to identify free space for object placement and robot navigation. Complementing this dataset, we propose RoboAfford-Eval, a comprehensive benchmark for assessing affordance-aware prediction in real-world scenarios, featuring 338 meticulously annotated samples across the same three tasks. Extensive experimental results reveal the deficiencies of existing VLMs in affordance learning, while fine-tuning on the RoboAfford++ dataset significantly enhances their ability to reason about object and spatial affordances, validating the dataset's effectiveness.

Humans show an innate capability to identify tools to support specific actions. The association between objects parts and the actions they facilitate is usually named affordance. Being able to segment objects parts depending on the tasks they afford is crucial to enable intelligent robots to use objects of daily living. Traditional supervised learning methods for affordance segmentation require costly pixel-level annotations, while weakly supervised approaches, though less demanding, still rely on object-interaction examples and support a closed set of actions. These limitations hinder scalability, may introduce biases, and usually restrict models to a limited set of predefined actions. This paper proposes AffordanceCLIP, to overcome these limitations by leveraging the implicit affordance knowledge embedded within large pre-trained Vision-Language models like CLIP. We experimentally demonstrate that CLIP, although not explicitly trained for affordances detection, retains valuable information for the task. Our AffordanceCLIP achieves competitive zero-shot performance compared to methods with specialized training, while offering several advantages: i) it works with any action prompt, not just a predefined set; ii) it requires training only a small number of additional parameters compared to existing solutions and iii) eliminates the need for direct supervision on action-object pairs, opening new perspectives for functionality-based reasoning of models.

Global perception is essential for embodied agents in 360° spaces, yet current affordance grounding remains largely object-centric and restricted to perspective views. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel task: Holistic Affordance Grounding in 360° Indoor Environments. This task faces unique challenges, including severe geometric distortions from Equirectangular Projection (ERP), semantic dispersion, and cross-scale alignment difficulties. We propose PanoAffordanceNet, an end-to-end framework featuring a Distortion-Aware Spectral Modulator (DASM) for latitude-dependent calibration and an Omni-Spherical Densification Head (OSDH) to restore topological continuity from sparse activations. By integrating multi-level constraints comprising pixel-wise, distributional, and region-text contrastive objectives, our framework effectively suppresses semantic drift under low supervision. Furthermore, we construct 360-AGD, the first high-quality panoramic affordance grounding dataset. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PanoAffordanceNet significantly outperforms existing methods, establishing a solid baseline for scene-level perception in embodied intelligence. The source code and benchmark dataset will be made publicly available at https://github.com/GL-ZHU925/PanoAffordanceNet.

Large multimodal models (LMMs) have rapidly advanced in perception and reasoning; however, it remains unclear whether these capabilities generalize to discovering visually grounded solutions in open-ended environments, beyond pattern recognition. In such settings, intelligence requires more than answering well-posed questions: it involves identifying how elements in a scene can be repurposed in non-obvious yet physically feasible ways. This form of creative problem-solving is central to human intelligence, but remains largely untested in current benchmarks. To evaluate this ability, we introduce MM-CreativityBench, a benchmark for affordance-grounded creative tool use in visually rich, physically constrained environments. Each instance presents a scenario image with structured views of candidate entities and their parts, enabling fine-grained, interactive evaluation of how models iteratively inspect the scene, identify relevant affordances, and compose visually and physically grounded solutions. Our experiments show that current LMMs often fall short, not due to lack of generative capability, but because they do not sustain grounded exploration. Models often overlook relevant entities, under-examine critical parts, or hallucinate attributes not grounded in the image. Motivated by this failure mode, we propose affordance-grounded alignment, which casts creative tool use as a preference learning problem. Using Direct Preference Optimization, we encourage models to prefer attribute-affordance reasoning grounded in visual evidence over hallucinated alternatives. In addition, we incorporate supervision derived from an affordance knowledge base to guide broader entity exploration and multi-turn planning. Our results show consistent gains in selecting the correct entities and parts, while substantially reducing hallucination and grounding-related errors.

Facilitating an entity's interaction with objects requires accurately identifying parts that afford specific actions. Weakly supervised affordance grounding (WSAG) seeks to imitate human learning from third-person demonstrations, where humans intuitively grasp functional parts without needing pixel-level annotations. To achieve this, grounding is typically learned using a shared classifier across images from different perspectives, along with distillation strategies incorporating part discovery process. However, since affordance-relevant parts are not always easily distinguishable, models primarily rely on classification, often focusing on common class-specific patterns that are unrelated to affordance. To address this limitation, we move beyond isolated part-level learning by introducing selective prototypical and pixel contrastive objectives that adaptively learn affordance-relevant cues at both the part and object levels, depending on the granularity of the available information. Initially, we find the action-associated objects in both egocentric (object-focused) and exocentric (third-person example) images by leveraging CLIP. Then, by cross-referencing the discovered objects of complementary views, we excavate the precise part-level affordance clues in each perspective. By consistently learning to distinguish affordance-relevant regions from affordance-irrelevant background context, our approach effectively shifts activation from irrelevant areas toward meaningful affordance cues. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Codes are available at github.com/hynnsk/SelectiveCL.

To be capable of lifelong learning in a real-life environment, robots have to tackle multiple challenges. Being able to relate physical properties they may observe in their environment to possible interactions they may have is one of them. This skill, named affordance learning, is strongly related to embodiment and is mastered through each person's development: each individual learns affordances differently through their own interactions with their surroundings. Current methods for affordance learning usually use either fixed actions to learn these affordances or focus on static setups involving a robotic arm to be operated. In this article, we propose an algorithm using intrinsic motivation to guide the learning of affordances for a mobile robot. This algorithm is capable to autonomously discover, learn and adapt interrelated affordances without pre-programmed actions. Once learned, these affordances may be used by the algorithm to plan sequences of actions in order to perform tasks of various difficulties. We then present one experiment and analyse our system before comparing it with other approaches from reinforcement learning and affordance learning.

Understanding and manipulating deformable objects (e.g., ropes and fabrics) is an essential yet challenging task with broad applications. Difficulties come from complex states and dynamics, diverse configurations and high-dimensional action space of deformable objects. Besides, the manipulation tasks usually require multiple steps to accomplish, and greedy policies may easily lead to local optimal states. Existing studies usually tackle this problem using reinforcement learning or imitating expert demonstrations, with limitations in modeling complex states or requiring hand-crafted expert policies. In this paper, we study deformable object manipulation using dense visual affordance, with generalization towards diverse states, and propose a novel kind of foresightful dense affordance, which avoids local optima by estimating states' values for long-term manipulation. We propose a framework for learning this representation, with novel designs such as multi-stage stable learning and efficient self-supervised data collection without experts. Experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed foresightful dense affordance. Project page: https://hyperplane-lab.github.io/DeformableAffordance

Robotic affordances, providing information about what actions can be taken in a given situation, can aid robotic manipulation. However, learning about affordances requires expensive large annotated datasets of interactions or demonstrations. In this work, we argue that well-directed interactions with the environment can mitigate this problem and propose an information-based measure to augment the agent's objective and accelerate the affordance discovery process. We provide a theoretical justification of our approach and we empirically validate the approach both in simulation and real-world tasks. Our method, which we dub IDA, enables the efficient discovery of visual affordances for several action primitives, such as grasping, stacking objects, or opening drawers, strongly improving data efficiency in simulation, and it allows us to learn grasping affordances in a small number of interactions, on a real-world setup with a UFACTORY XArm 6 robot arm.

Affordance segmentation aims to decompose 3D objects into parts that serve distinct functional roles, enabling models to reason about object interactions rather than mere recognition. Existing methods, mostly following the paradigm of 3D semantic segmentation or prompt-based frameworks, struggle when geometric cues are weak or ambiguous, as sparse point clouds provide limited functional information. To overcome this limitation, we leverage the rich semantic knowledge embedded in large-scale 2D Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) to guide 3D representation learning through a cross-modal alignment mechanism. Specifically, we propose Cross-Modal Affinity Transfer (CMAT), a pretraining strategy that compels the 3D encoder to align with the semantic structures induced by lifted 2D features. CMAT is driven by a core affinity alignment objective, supported by two auxiliary losses, geometric reconstruction and feature diversity, which together encourage structured and discriminative feature learning. Built upon the CMAT-pretrained backbone, we employ a lightweight affordance segmentor that injects text or visual prompts into the learned 3D space through an efficient cross-attention interface, enabling dense and prompt-aware affordance prediction while preserving the semantic organization established during pretraining. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over previous state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and efficiency.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Recent successes in image synthesis are powered by large-scale diffusion models. However, most methods are currently limited to either text- or image-conditioned generation for synthesizing an entire image, texture transfer or inserting objects into a user-specified region. In contrast, in this work we focus on synthesizing complex interactions (ie, an articulated hand) with a given object. Given an RGB image of an object, we aim to hallucinate plausible images of a human hand interacting with it. We propose a two-step generative approach: a LayoutNet that samples an articulation-agnostic hand-object-interaction layout, and a ContentNet that synthesizes images of a hand grasping the object given the predicted layout. Both are built on top of a large-scale pretrained diffusion model to make use of its latent representation. Compared to baselines, the proposed method is shown to generalize better to novel objects and perform surprisingly well on out-of-distribution in-the-wild scenes of portable-sized objects. The resulting system allows us to predict descriptive affordance information, such as hand articulation and approaching orientation. Project page: https://judyye.github.io/affordiffusion-www

Understanding the inherent human knowledge in interacting with a given environment (e.g., affordance) is essential for improving AI to better assist humans. While existing approaches primarily focus on human-object contacts during interactions, such affordance representation cannot fully address other important aspects of human-object interactions (HOIs), i.e., patterns of relative positions and orientations. In this paper, we introduce a novel affordance representation, named Comprehensive Affordance (ComA). Given a 3D object mesh, ComA models the distribution of relative orientation and proximity of vertices in interacting human meshes, capturing plausible patterns of contact, relative orientations, and spatial relationships. To construct the distribution, we present a novel pipeline that synthesizes diverse and realistic 3D HOI samples given any 3D object mesh. The pipeline leverages a pre-trained 2D inpainting diffusion model to generate HOI images from object renderings and lifts them into 3D. To avoid the generation of false affordances, we propose a new inpainting framework, Adaptive Mask Inpainting. Since ComA is built on synthetic samples, it can extend to any object in an unbounded manner. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that ComA outperforms competitors that rely on human annotations in modeling contact-based affordance. Importantly, we also showcase the potential of ComA to reconstruct human-object interactions in 3D through an optimization framework, highlighting its advantage in incorporating both contact and non-contact properties.

Accurate affordance detection and segmentation with pixel precision is an important piece in many complex systems based on interactions, such as robots and assitive devices. We present a new approach to affordance perception which enables accurate multi-label segmentation. Our approach can be used to automatically extract grounded affordances from first person videos of interactions using a 3D map of the environment providing pixel level precision for the affordance location. We use this method to build the largest and most complete dataset on affordances based on the EPIC-Kitchen dataset, EPIC-Aff, which provides interaction-grounded, multi-label, metric and spatial affordance annotations. Then, we propose a new approach to affordance segmentation based on multi-label detection which enables multiple affordances to co-exists in the same space, for example if they are associated with the same object. We present several strategies of multi-label detection using several segmentation architectures. The experimental results highlight the importance of the multi-label detection. Finally, we show how our metric representation can be exploited for build a map of interaction hotspots in spatial action-centric zones and use that representation to perform a task-oriented navigation.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

Open-Vocabulary 3D object affordance grounding aims to anticipate ``action possibilities'' regions on 3D objects with arbitrary instructions, which is crucial for robots to generically perceive real scenarios and respond to operational changes. Existing methods focus on combining images or languages that depict interactions with 3D geometries to introduce external interaction priors. However, they are still vulnerable to a limited semantic space by failing to leverage implied invariant geometries and potential interaction intentions. Normally, humans address complex tasks through multi-step reasoning and respond to diverse situations by leveraging associative and analogical thinking. In light of this, we propose GREAT (GeometRy-intEntion collAboraTive inference) for Open-Vocabulary 3D Object Affordance Grounding, a novel framework that mines the object invariant geometry attributes and performs analogically reason in potential interaction scenarios to form affordance knowledge, fully combining the knowledge with both geometries and visual contents to ground 3D object affordance. Besides, we introduce the Point Image Affordance Dataset v2 (PIADv2), the largest 3D object affordance dataset at present to support the task. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of GREAT. The code and dataset are available at https://yawen-shao.github.io/GREAT/.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Building a robot that can understand and learn to interact by watching humans has inspired several vision problems. However, despite some successful results on static datasets, it remains unclear how current models can be used on a robot directly. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by leveraging videos of human interactions in an environment centric manner. Utilizing internet videos of human behavior, we train a visual affordance model that estimates where and how in the scene a human is likely to interact. The structure of these behavioral affordances directly enables the robot to perform many complex tasks. We show how to seamlessly integrate our affordance model with four robot learning paradigms including offline imitation learning, exploration, goal-conditioned learning, and action parameterization for reinforcement learning. We show the efficacy of our approach, which we call VRB, across 4 real world environments, over 10 different tasks, and 2 robotic platforms operating in the wild. Results, visualizations and videos at https://robo-affordances.github.io/

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Planning with a learned model is arguably a key component of intelligence. There are several challenges in realizing such a component in large-scale reinforcement learning (RL) problems. One such challenge is dealing effectively with continuous action spaces when using tree-search planning (e.g., it is not feasible to consider every action even at just the root node of the tree). In this paper we present a method for selecting affordances useful for planning -- for learning which small number of actions/options from a continuous space of actions/options to consider in the tree-expansion process during planning. We consider affordances that are goal-and-state-conditional mappings to actions/options as well as unconditional affordances that simply select actions/options available in all states. Our selection method is gradient based: we compute gradients through the planning procedure to update the parameters of the function that represents affordances. Our empirical work shows that it is feasible to learn to select both primitive-action and option affordances, and that simultaneously learning to select affordances and planning with a learned value-equivalent model can outperform model-free RL.

Understanding how humans interact with the surrounding environment, and specifically reasoning about object interactions and affordances, is a critical challenge in computer vision, robotics, and AI. Current approaches often depend on labor-intensive, hand-labeled datasets capturing real-world or simulated human-object interaction (HOI) tasks, which are costly and time-consuming to produce. Furthermore, most existing methods for 3D affordance understanding are limited to contact-based analysis, neglecting other essential aspects of human-object interactions, such as orientation (\eg, humans might have a preferential orientation with respect certain objects, such as a TV) and spatial occupancy (\eg, humans are more likely to occupy certain regions around an object, like the front of a microwave rather than its back). To address these limitations, we introduce H2OFlow, a novel framework that comprehensively learns 3D HOI affordances -- encompassing contact, orientation, and spatial occupancy -- using only synthetic data generated from 3D generative models. H2OFlow employs a dense 3D-flow-based representation, learned through a dense diffusion process operating on point clouds. This learned flow enables the discovery of rich 3D affordances without the need for human annotations. Through extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations, we demonstrate that H2OFlow generalizes effectively to real-world objects and surpasses prior methods that rely on manual annotations or mesh-based representations in modeling 3D affordance.

Recent advances in large language models have led to strong performance on reasoning and environment-interaction tasks, yet their ability for creative problem-solving remains underexplored. We study this capability through the lens of creative tool use, where a model repurposes available objects by reasoning about their affordances and attributes rather than relying on canonical usage. As a first step, we introduce CreativityBench, a benchmark for evaluating affordance-based creativity in LLMs. To this end, we build a large-scale affordance knowledge base (KB) with 4K entities and 150K+ affordance annotations, explicitly linking objects, parts, attributes, and actionable uses. Building on this KB, we generate 14K grounded tasks that require identifying non-obvious yet physically plausible solutions under constraints. Evaluations across 10 state-of-the-art LLMs, including closed and open-source models, show that models can often select a plausible object, but fail to identify the correct parts, their affordances, and the underlying physical mechanism needed to solve the task, leading to a significant drop in performance. Furthermore, improvements from model scaling quickly saturate, strong general reasoning does not reliably translate to creative affordance discovery, and common inference-time strategies such as Chain-of-Thought yield limited gains. These results suggest that creative tool use remains a major challenge for current models, and that CreativityBench provides a useful testbed for studying this missing dimension of intelligence, with potential implications for planning and reasoning modules in future agents.

LLM-based agents have demonstrated impressive zero-shot performance in vision-language navigation (VLN) task. However, existing LLM-based methods often focus only on solving high-level task planning by selecting nodes in predefined navigation graphs for movements, overlooking low-level control in navigation scenarios. To bridge this gap, we propose AO-Planner, a novel Affordances-Oriented Planner for continuous VLN task. Our AO-Planner integrates various foundation models to achieve affordances-oriented low-level motion planning and high-level decision-making, both performed in a zero-shot setting. Specifically, we employ a Visual Affordances Prompting (VAP) approach, where the visible ground is segmented by SAM to provide navigational affordances, based on which the LLM selects potential candidate waypoints and plans low-level paths towards selected waypoints. We further propose a high-level PathAgent which marks planned paths into the image input and reasons the most probable path by comprehending all environmental information. Finally, we convert the selected path into 3D coordinates using camera intrinsic parameters and depth information, avoiding challenging 3D predictions for LLMs. Experiments on the challenging R2R-CE and RxR-CE datasets show that AO-Planner achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance (8.8% improvement on SPL). Our method can also serve as a data annotator to obtain pseudo-labels, distilling its waypoint prediction ability into a learning-based predictor. This new predictor does not require any waypoint data from the simulator and achieves 47% SR competing with supervised methods. We establish an effective connection between LLM and 3D world, presenting novel prospects for employing foundation models in low-level motion control.

We present a framework for assistive robot manipulation, which focuses on two fundamental challenges: first, efficiently adapting large-scale models to downstream scene affordance understanding tasks, especially in daily living scenarios where gathering multi-task data involving humans requires strenuous effort; second, effectively learning robot trajectories by grounding the visual affordance model. We tackle the first challenge by employing a parameter-efficient prompt tuning method that prepends learnable text prompts to the frozen vision model to predict manipulation affordances in multi-task scenarios. Then we propose to learn robot trajectories guided by affordances in a supervised Flow Matching method. Flow matching represents a robot visuomotor policy as a conditional process of flowing random waypoints to desired robot trajectories. Finally, we introduce a real-world dataset with 10 tasks across Activities of Daily Living to test our framework. Our extensive evaluation highlights that the proposed prompt tuning method for learning manipulation affordance with language prompter achieves competitive performance and even outperforms other finetuning protocols across data scales, while satisfying parameter efficiency. Learning multi-task robot trajectories with a single flow matching policy also leads to consistently better performance than alternative behavior cloning methods, especially given multimodal robot action distributions. Our framework seamlessly unifies affordance model learning and trajectory generation with flow matching for robot manipulation.

While large language models (LLMs) are successful in completing various language processing tasks, they easily fail to interact with the physical world by generating control sequences properly. We find that the main reason is that LLMs are not grounded in the physical world. Existing LLM-based approaches circumvent this problem by relying on additional pre-defined skills or pre-trained sub-policies, making it hard to adapt to new tasks. In contrast, we aim to address this problem and explore the possibility to prompt pre-trained LLMs to accomplish a series of robotic manipulation tasks in a training-free paradigm. Accordingly, we propose a framework called LLM+A(ffordance) where the LLM serves as both the sub-task planner (that generates high-level plans) and the motion controller (that generates low-level control sequences). To ground these plans and control sequences on the physical world, we develop the affordance prompting technique that stimulates the LLM to 1) predict the consequences of generated plans and 2) generate affordance values for relevant objects. Empirically, we evaluate the effectiveness of LLM+A in various language-conditioned robotic manipulation tasks, which show that our approach substantially improves performance by enhancing the feasibility of generated plans and control and can easily generalize to different environments.

In this study, we explore the sophisticated domain of task planning for robust household embodied agents, with a particular emphasis on the intricate task of selecting substitute objects. We introduce the CommonSense Object Affordance Task (COAT), a novel framework designed to analyze reasoning capabilities in commonsense scenarios. This approach is centered on understanding how these agents can effectively identify and utilize alternative objects when executing household tasks, thereby offering insights into the complexities of practical decision-making in real-world environments.Drawing inspiration from human decision-making, we explore how large language models tackle this challenge through three meticulously crafted commonsense question-and-answer datasets, featuring refined rules and human annotations. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art language models on these datasets sheds light on three pivotal considerations: 1) aligning an object's inherent utility with the task at hand, 2) navigating contextual dependencies (societal norms, safety, appropriateness, and efficiency), and 3) accounting for the current physical state of the object. To maintain accessibility, we introduce five abstract variables reflecting an object's physical condition, modulated by human insights to simulate diverse household scenarios. Our contributions include insightful Object-Utility mappings addressing the first consideration and two extensive QA datasets (15k and 130k questions) probing the intricacies of contextual dependencies and object states. The datasets, along with our findings, are accessible at: https://github.com/com-phy-affordance/COAT. This research not only advances our understanding of physical commonsense reasoning in language models but also paves the way for future improvements in household agent intelligence.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

Semantic occupancy has emerged as a powerful representation in world models for its ability to capture rich spatial semantics. However, most existing occupancy world models rely on static and fixed embeddings or grids, which inherently limit the flexibility of perception. Moreover, their ``in-place classification" over grids exhibits a potential misalignment with the dynamic and continuous nature of real scenarios. In this paper, we propose SparseWorld, a novel 4D occupancy world model that is flexible, adaptive, and efficient, powered by sparse and dynamic queries. We propose a Range-Adaptive Perception module, in which learnable queries are modulated by the ego vehicle states and enriched with temporal-spatial associations to enable extended-range perception. To effectively capture the dynamics of the scene, we design a State-Conditioned Forecasting module, which replaces classification-based forecasting with regression-guided formulation, precisely aligning the dynamic queries with the continuity of the 4D environment. In addition, We specifically devise a Temporal-Aware Self-Scheduling training strategy to enable smooth and efficient training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SparseWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance across perception, forecasting, and planning tasks. Comprehensive visualizations and ablation studies further validate the advantages of SparseWorld in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency.

This paper addresses the problem of affordance grounding from RGBD images of an object, which aims to localize surface regions corresponding to a text query that describes an action on the object. While existing methods predict affordance regions only on visible surfaces, we propose Affostruction, a generative framework that reconstructs complete object geometry from partial RGBD observations and grounds affordances on the full shape including unobserved regions. Our approach introduces sparse voxel fusion of multi-view features for constant-complexity generative reconstruction, a flow-based formulation that captures the inherent ambiguity of affordance distributions, and an active view selection strategy guided by predicted affordances. Affostruction outperforms existing methods by large margins on challenging benchmarks, achieving 19.1 aIoU on affordance grounding and 32.67 IoU for 3D reconstruction.

Recent advancements in vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown promise in robotic manipulation, yet they continue to struggle with long-horizon, multi-step tasks. Existing methods lack internal reasoning mechanisms that can identify task-relevant interaction cues or track progress within a subtask, leading to critical execution errors such as repeated actions, missed steps, and premature termination. To address these challenges, we introduce PALM, a VLA framework that structures policy learning around interaction-centric affordance reasoning and subtask progress cues. PALM distills complementary affordance representations that capture object relevance, contact geometry, spatial placements, and motion dynamics, and serve as task-relevant anchors for visuomotor control. To further stabilize long-horizon execution, PALM predicts continuous within-subtask progress, enabling seamless subtask transitions. Across extensive simulation and real-world experiments, PALM consistently outperforms baselines, achieving a 91.8% success rate on LIBERO-LONG, a 12.5% improvement in average length on CALVIN ABC->D, and a 2x improvement over real-world baselines across three long-horizon generalization settings.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) struggle to translate high-level instructions into the precise spatial affordances required for robotic manipulation. While visual Chain-of-Thought (CoT) methods exist, they are often computationally intensive. In this work, we introduce TRACE (Textual Reasoning for Affordance Coordinate Extraction), a novel methodology that integrates a textual Chain of Reasoning (CoR) into the affordance prediction process. We use this methodology to create the TRACE dataset, a large-scale collection created via an autonomous pipeline that pairs instructions with explicit textual rationales. By fine-tuning a VLM on this data, our model learns to externalize its spatial reasoning before acting. Our experiments show that our TRACE-tuned model achieves state-of-the-art performance, reaching 48.1% accuracy on the primary Where2Place (W2P) benchmark (a 9.6% relative improvement) and 55.0% on the more challenging W2P(h) subset. Crucially, an ablation study demonstrates that performance scales directly with the amount of reasoning data used, confirming the CoR's effectiveness. Furthermore, analysis of the model's attention maps reveals an interpretable reasoning process where focus shifts dynamically across reasoning steps. This work shows that training VLMs to generate a textual CoR is an effective and robust strategy for enhancing the precision, reliability, and interpretability of VLM-based robot control. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/jink-ucla/TRACE

Motion forecasting is an essential task for autonomous driving, and utilizing information from infrastructure and other vehicles can enhance forecasting capabilities. Existing research mainly focuses on leveraging single-frame cooperative information to enhance the limited perception capability of the ego vehicle, while underutilizing the motion and interaction context of traffic participants observed from cooperative devices. In this paper, we propose a forecasting-oriented representation paradigm to utilize motion and interaction features from cooperative information. Specifically, we present V2X-Graph, a representative framework to achieve interpretable and end-to-end trajectory feature fusion for cooperative motion forecasting. V2X-Graph is evaluated on V2X-Seq in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) scenarios. To further evaluate on vehicle-to-everything (V2X) scenario, we construct the first real-world V2X motion forecasting dataset V2X-Traj, which contains multiple autonomous vehicles and infrastructure in every scenario. Experimental results on both V2X-Seq and V2X-Traj show the advantage of our method. We hope both V2X-Graph and V2X-Traj will benefit the further development of cooperative motion forecasting. Find the project at https://github.com/AIR-THU/V2X-Graph.

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from vision to time series remains challenging due to three discrepancies: (1) the data-modality gap between structured, bounded image data and unbounded, heterogeneous time series; (2) the multivariate-forecasting gap between fixed RGB-three-channel vision models and time series with arbitrary numbers of variates; and (3) the probabilistic-forecasting gap between the deterministic outputs of vision models and the requirement for uncertainty-aware probabilistic predictions. To bridge these gaps, we propose VisonTS++, a TSFM based on continual pre-training of a vision model on large-scale time series. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) vision-model-based filtering to identify high-quality sequences to stabilize pre-training and mitigate modality gap; (2) colorized multivariate conversion, encoding multivariate series as multi-subfigure RGB images to enhance cross-variate modeling; (3) multi-quantile forecasting, using parallel reconstruction heads to generate quantile forecasts without parametric assumptions. Experiments show that VisionTS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution forecasting, outperforming specialized TSFMs by 6%-44% in MSE reduction and ranking first in GIFT-Eval benchmark which comprises 23 datasets across 7 domains. Our work demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation, vision models can effectively generalize to TSF, thus advancing the pursuit of universal TSFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/VisionTSpp.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Graph attention networks (GATs) provide one of the best frameworks for learning node representations in relational data; but, existing variants such as Graph Attention Network (GAT) mainly operate on static graphs and rely on implicit temporal aggregation when applied to sequential data. In this paper, we introduce Electroencephalography-temporal Graph Attention Network (EEG-tGAT), a temporally augmented formulation of GATv2 that is tailored for affordance classification from interaction sequences. The proposed model incorporates temporal attention to modulate the contribution of different time segments and temporal dropout to regularize learning across temporally correlated observations. The design reflects the assumption that temporal dimensions in affordance data are not semantically uniform and that discriminative information may be unevenly distributed across time. Experimental results on affordance datasets show that EEG-tGAT achieves improved classification performance compared to GATv2. The observed gains helps to conclude that explicitly encoding temporal importance and enforcing temporal robustness introduce inductive biases that are much better aligned with the structure of affordance-driven interaction data. These findings show us that modest architectural changes to graph attention models can help one obtain consistent benefits when temporal relationships play a nontrivial role in the task.

We introduce Audio-Visual Affordance Grounding (AV-AG), a new task that segments object interaction regions from action sounds. Unlike existing approaches that rely on textual instructions or demonstration videos, which often limited by ambiguity or occlusion, audio provides real-time, semantically rich, and visually independent cues for affordance grounding, enabling more intuitive understanding of interaction regions. To support this task, we construct the first AV-AG dataset, comprising a large collection of action sounds, object images, and pixel-level affordance annotations. The dataset also includes an unseen subset to evaluate zero-shot generalization. Furthermore, we propose AVAGFormer, a model equipped with a semantic-conditioned cross-modal mixer and a dual-head decoder that effectively fuses audio and visual signals for mask prediction. Experiments show that AVAGFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance on AV-AG, surpassing baselines from related tasks. Comprehensive analyses highlight the distinctions between AV-AG and AVS, the benefits of end-to-end modeling, and the contribution of each component. Code and dataset have been released on https://jscslld.github.io/AVAGFormer/.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

In mobile manipulation, navigation and manipulation are often treated as separate problems, resulting in a significant gap between merely approaching an object and engaging with it effectively. Many navigation approaches primarily define success by proximity to the target, often overlooking the necessity for optimal positioning that facilitates subsequent manipulation. To address this, we introduce MoMa-Kitchen, a benchmark dataset comprising over 100k samples that provide training data for models to learn optimal final navigation positions for seamless transition to manipulation. Our dataset includes affordance-grounded floor labels collected from diverse kitchen environments, in which robotic mobile manipulators of different models attempt to grasp target objects amidst clutter. Using a fully automated pipeline, we simulate diverse real-world scenarios and generate affordance labels for optimal manipulation positions. Visual data are collected from RGB-D inputs captured by a first-person view camera mounted on the robotic arm, ensuring consistency in viewpoint during data collection. We also develop a lightweight baseline model, NavAff, for navigation affordance grounding that demonstrates promising performance on the MoMa-Kitchen benchmark. Our approach enables models to learn affordance-based final positioning that accommodates different arm types and platform heights, thereby paving the way for more robust and generalizable integration of navigation and manipulation in embodied AI. Project page: https://momakitchen.github.io/{https://momakitchen.github.io/}.

As a common image editing operation, image composition involves integrating foreground objects into background scenes. In this paper, we expand the application of the concept of Affordance from human-centered image composition tasks to a more general object-scene composition framework, addressing the complex interplay between foreground objects and background scenes. Following the principle of Affordance, we define the affordance-aware object insertion task, which aims to seamlessly insert any object into any scene with various position prompts. To address the limited data issue and incorporate this task, we constructed the SAM-FB dataset, which contains over 3 million examples across more than 3,000 object categories. Furthermore, we propose the Mask-Aware Dual Diffusion (MADD) model, which utilizes a dual-stream architecture to simultaneously denoise the RGB image and the insertion mask. By explicitly modeling the insertion mask in the diffusion process, MADD effectively facilitates the notion of affordance. Extensive experimental results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and exhibits strong generalization performance on in-the-wild images. Please refer to our code on https://github.com/KaKituken/affordance-aware-any.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

In this study, we are interested in imbuing robots with the capability of physically-grounded task planning. Recent advancements have shown that large language models (LLMs) possess extensive knowledge useful in robotic tasks, especially in reasoning and planning. However, LLMs are constrained by their lack of world grounding and dependence on external affordance models to perceive environmental information, which cannot jointly reason with LLMs. We argue that a task planner should be an inherently grounded, unified multimodal system. To this end, we introduce Robotic Vision-Language Planning (ViLa), a novel approach for long-horizon robotic planning that leverages vision-language models (VLMs) to generate a sequence of actionable steps. ViLa directly integrates perceptual data into its reasoning and planning process, enabling a profound understanding of commonsense knowledge in the visual world, including spatial layouts and object attributes. It also supports flexible multimodal goal specification and naturally incorporates visual feedback. Our extensive evaluation, conducted in both real-robot and simulated environments, demonstrates ViLa's superiority over existing LLM-based planners, highlighting its effectiveness in a wide array of open-world manipulation tasks.

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

Large-scale generative language and vision-language models (LLMs and VLMs) excel in few-shot in-context learning for decision making and instruction following. However, they require high-quality exemplar demonstrations to be included in their context window. In this work, we ask: Can LLMs and VLMs generate their own prompt examples from generic, sub-optimal demonstrations? We propose In-Context Abstraction Learning (ICAL), a method that builds a memory of multimodal experience insights from sub-optimal demonstrations and human feedback. Given a noisy demonstration in a new domain, VLMs abstract the trajectory into a general program by fixing inefficient actions and annotating cognitive abstractions: task relationships, object state changes, temporal subgoals, and task construals. These abstractions are refined and adapted interactively through human feedback while the agent attempts to execute the trajectory in a similar environment. The resulting abstractions, when used as exemplars in the prompt, significantly improve decision-making in retrieval-augmented LLM and VLM agents. Our ICAL agent surpasses the state-of-the-art in dialogue-based instruction following in TEACh, multimodal web agents in VisualWebArena, and action anticipation in Ego4D. In TEACh, we achieve a 12.6% improvement in goal-condition success. In VisualWebArena, our task success rate improves over the SOTA from 14.3% to 22.7%. In Ego4D action forecasting, we improve over few-shot GPT-4V and remain competitive with supervised models. We show finetuning our retrieval-augmented in-context agent yields additional improvements. Our approach significantly reduces reliance on expert-crafted examples and consistently outperforms in-context learning from action plans that lack such insights.

3D articulated objects are inherently challenging for manipulation due to the varied geometries and intricate functionalities associated with articulated objects.Point-level affordance, which predicts the per-point actionable score and thus proposes the best point to interact with, has demonstrated excellent performance and generalization capabilities in articulated object manipulation. However, a significant challenge remains: while previous works use perfect point cloud generated in simulation, the models cannot directly apply to the noisy point cloud in the real-world. To tackle this challenge, we leverage the property of real-world scanned point cloud that, the point cloud becomes less noisy when the camera is closer to the object. Therefore, we propose a novel coarse-to-fine affordance learning pipeline to mitigate the effect of point cloud noise in two stages. In the first stage, we learn the affordance on the noisy far point cloud which includes the whole object to propose the approximated place to manipulate. Then, we move the camera in front of the approximated place, scan a less noisy point cloud containing precise local geometries for manipulation, and learn affordance on such point cloud to propose fine-grained final actions. The proposed method is thoroughly evaluated both using large-scale simulated noisy point clouds mimicking real-world scans, and in the real world scenarios, with superiority over existing methods, demonstrating the effectiveness in tackling the noisy real-world point cloud problem.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Learning manipulation skills from human demonstration videos offers a promising path toward generalizable and interpretable robotic intelligence-particularly through the lens of actionable affordances. However, transferring such knowledge remains challenging due to: 1) a lack of large-scale datasets with precise affordance annotations, and 2) insufficient exploration of affordances in diverse manipulation contexts. To address these gaps, we introduce HOVA-500K, a large-scale, affordance-annotated dataset comprising 500,000 images across 1,726 object categories and 675 actions. We also release a standardized benchmarking suite for multi-modal affordance reasoning. Built upon HOVA-500K, we present GLOVER++, a global-to-local affordance training framework that effectively transfers actionable affordance knowledge from human demonstrations to downstream open-vocabulary reasoning tasks. GLOVER++ achieves state-of-the-art results on the HOVA-500K benchmark and demonstrates strong generalization across diverse downstream robotic manipulation tasks. By explicitly modeling actionable affordances, GLOVER++ facilitates robust transfer across scenes, modalities, and tasks. We hope that HOVA-500K and the GLOVER++ framework will serve as valuable resources for bridging the gap between human demonstrations and robotic manipulation capabilities.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong omni-modal perception, their ability to forecast future events from audio-visual cues remains largely unexplored, as existing benchmarks focus mainly on retrospective understanding. To bridge this gap, we introduce FutureOmni, the first benchmark designed to evaluate omni-modal future forecasting from audio-visual environments. The evaluated models are required to perform cross-modal causal and temporal reasoning, as well as effectively leverage internal knowledge to predict future events. FutureOmni is constructed via a scalable LLM-assisted, human-in-the-loop pipeline and contains 919 videos and 1,034 multiple-choice QA pairs across 8 primary domains. Evaluations on 13 omni-modal and 7 video-only models show that current systems struggle with audio-visual future prediction, particularly in speech-heavy scenarios, with the best accuracy of 64.8% achieved by Gemini 3 Flash. To mitigate this limitation, we curate a 7K-sample instruction-tuning dataset and propose an Omni-Modal Future Forecasting (OFF) training strategy. Evaluations on FutureOmni and popular audio-visual and video-only benchmarks demonstrate that OFF enhances future forecasting and generalization. We publicly release all code (https://github.com/OpenMOSS/FutureOmni) and datasets (https://huggingface.co/datasets/OpenMOSS-Team/FutureOmni).

Hand trajectory forecasting from egocentric views is crucial for enabling a prompt understanding of human intentions when interacting with AR/VR systems. However, existing methods handle this problem in a 2D image space which is inadequate for 3D real-world applications. In this paper, we set up an egocentric 3D hand trajectory forecasting task that aims to predict hand trajectories in a 3D space from early observed RGB videos in a first-person view. To fulfill this goal, we propose an uncertainty-aware state space Transformer (USST) that takes the merits of the attention mechanism and aleatoric uncertainty within the framework of the classical state-space model. The model can be further enhanced by the velocity constraint and visual prompt tuning (VPT) on large vision transformers. Moreover, we develop an annotation workflow to collect 3D hand trajectories with high quality. Experimental results on H2O and EgoPAT3D datasets demonstrate the superiority of USST for both 2D and 3D trajectory forecasting. The code and datasets are publicly released: https://actionlab-cv.github.io/EgoHandTrajPred.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

We present OAKINK2, a dataset of bimanual object manipulation tasks for complex daily activities. In pursuit of constructing the complex tasks into a structured representation, OAKINK2 introduces three level of abstraction to organize the manipulation tasks: Affordance, Primitive Task, and Complex Task. OAKINK2 features on an object-centric perspective for decoding the complex tasks, treating them as a sequence of object affordance fulfillment. The first level, Affordance, outlines the functionalities that objects in the scene can afford, the second level, Primitive Task, describes the minimal interaction units that humans interact with the object to achieve its affordance, and the third level, Complex Task, illustrates how Primitive Tasks are composed and interdependent. OAKINK2 dataset provides multi-view image streams and precise pose annotations for the human body, hands and various interacting objects. This extensive collection supports applications such as interaction reconstruction and motion synthesis. Based on the 3-level abstraction of OAKINK2, we explore a task-oriented framework for Complex Task Completion (CTC). CTC aims to generate a sequence of bimanual manipulation to achieve task objectives. Within the CTC framework, we employ Large Language Models (LLMs) to decompose the complex task objectives into sequences of Primitive Tasks and have developed a Motion Fulfillment Model that generates bimanual hand motion for each Primitive Task. OAKINK2 datasets and models are available at https://oakink.net/v2.

Humans can perform previously unexperienced interactions with novel objects simply by observing others engage with them. Weakly-supervised affordance grounding mimics this process by learning to locate object regions that enable actions on egocentric images, using exocentric interaction images with image-level annotations. However, extracting affordance knowledge solely from exocentric images and transferring it one-way to egocentric images limits the applicability of previous works in complex interaction scenarios. Instead, this study introduces LoopTrans, a novel closed-loop framework that not only transfers knowledge from exocentric to egocentric but also transfers back to enhance exocentric knowledge extraction. Within LoopTrans, several innovative mechanisms are introduced, including unified cross-modal localization and denoising knowledge distillation, to bridge domain gaps between object-centered egocentric and interaction-centered exocentric images while enhancing knowledge transfer. Experiments show that LoopTrans achieves consistent improvements across all metrics on image and video benchmarks, even handling challenging scenarios where object interaction regions are fully occluded by the human body.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Robots equipped with reinforcement learning (RL) have the potential to learn a wide range of skills solely from a reward signal. However, obtaining a robust and dense reward signal for general manipulation tasks remains a challenge. Existing learning-based approaches require significant data, such as human demonstrations of success and failure, to learn task-specific reward functions. Recently, there is also a growing adoption of large multi-modal foundation models for robotics that can perform visual reasoning in physical contexts and generate coarse robot motions for manipulation tasks. Motivated by this range of capability, in this work, we present Keypoint-based Affordance Guidance for Improvements (KAGI), a method leveraging rewards shaped by vision-language models (VLMs) for autonomous RL. State-of-the-art VLMs have demonstrated impressive reasoning about affordances through keypoints in zero-shot, and we use these to define dense rewards that guide autonomous robotic learning. On real-world manipulation tasks specified by natural language descriptions, KAGI improves the sample efficiency of autonomous RL and enables successful task completion in 20K online fine-tuning steps. Additionally, we demonstrate the robustness of KAGI to reductions in the number of in-domain demonstrations used for pre-training, reaching similar performance in 35K online fine-tuning steps. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/affordance-guided-rl

The concept of 3D scene graphs is increasingly recognized as a powerful semantic and hierarchical representation of the environment. Current approaches often address this at a coarse, object-level resolution. In contrast, our goal is to develop a representation that enables robots to directly interact with their environment by identifying both the location of functional interactive elements and how these can be used. To achieve this, we focus on detecting and storing objects at a finer resolution, focusing on affordance-relevant parts. The primary challenge lies in the scarcity of data that extends beyond instance-level detection and the inherent difficulty of capturing detailed object features using robotic sensors. We leverage currently available 3D resources to generate 2D data and train a detector, which is then used to augment the standard 3D scene graph generation pipeline. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that our approach achieves functional element segmentation comparable to state-of-the-art 3D models and that our augmentation enables task-driven affordance grounding with higher accuracy than the current solutions. See our project page at https://fungraph.github.io.

Long-term activity forecasting is an especially challenging research problem because it requires understanding the temporal relationships between observed actions, as well as the variability and complexity of human activities. Despite relying on strong supervision via expensive human annotations, state-of-the-art forecasting approaches often generalize poorly to unseen data. To alleviate this issue, we propose Multiscale Video Pretraining (MVP), a novel self-supervised pretraining approach that learns robust representations for forecasting by learning to predict contextualized representations of future video clips over multiple timescales. MVP is based on our observation that actions in videos have a multiscale nature, where atomic actions typically occur at a short timescale and more complex actions may span longer timescales. We compare MVP to state-of-the-art self-supervised video learning approaches on downstream long-term forecasting tasks including long-term action anticipation and video summary prediction. Our comprehensive experiments across the Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens-55/100 datasets demonstrate that MVP out-performs state-of-the-art methods by significant margins. Notably, MVP obtains a relative performance gain of over 20% accuracy in video summary forecasting over existing methods.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Procedural video representation learning is an active research area where the objective is to learn an agent which can anticipate and forecast the future given the present video input, typically in conjunction with textual annotations. Prior works often rely on large-scale pretraining of visual encoders and prediction models with language supervision. However, the necessity and effectiveness of extending compute intensive pretraining to learn video clip sequences with noisy text supervision have not yet been fully validated by previous works. In this work, we show that a strong off-the-shelf frozen pretrained visual encoder, along with a well designed prediction model, can achieve state-of-the-art (SoTA) performance in forecasting and procedural planning without the need for pretraining the prediction model, nor requiring additional supervision from language or ASR. Instead of learning representations from pixel space, our method utilizes the latent embedding space of publicly available vision encoders. By conditioning on frozen clip-level embeddings from observed steps to predict the actions of unseen steps, our prediction model is able to learn robust representations for forecasting through iterative denoising - leveraging the recent advances in diffusion transformers (Peebles & Xie, 2023). Empirical studies over a total of five procedural learning tasks across four datasets (NIV, CrossTask, COIN and Ego4D-v2) show that our model advances the strong baselines in long-horizon action anticipation (+2.6% in Verb ED@20, +3.1% in Noun ED@20), and significantly improves the SoTA in step forecasting (+5.0%), task classification (+3.8%), and procedure planning tasks (up to +2.28% in success rate, +3.39% in mAcc, and +0.90% in mIoU).

Motion forecasting for autonomous driving is a challenging task because complex driving scenarios result in a heterogeneous mix of static and dynamic inputs. It is an open problem how best to represent and fuse information about road geometry, lane connectivity, time-varying traffic light state, and history of a dynamic set of agents and their interactions into an effective encoding. To model this diverse set of input features, many approaches proposed to design an equally complex system with a diverse set of modality specific modules. This results in systems that are difficult to scale, extend, or tune in rigorous ways to trade off quality and efficiency. In this paper, we present Wayformer, a family of attention based architectures for motion forecasting that are simple and homogeneous. Wayformer offers a compact model description consisting of an attention based scene encoder and a decoder. In the scene encoder we study the choice of early, late and hierarchical fusion of the input modalities. For each fusion type we explore strategies to tradeoff efficiency and quality via factorized attention or latent query attention. We show that early fusion, despite its simplicity of construction, is not only modality agnostic but also achieves state-of-the-art results on both Waymo Open MotionDataset (WOMD) and Argoverse leaderboards, demonstrating the effectiveness of our design philosophy

Scene completion and forecasting are two popular perception problems in research for mobile agents like autonomous vehicles. Existing approaches treat the two problems in isolation, resulting in a separate perception of the two aspects. In this paper, we introduce a novel LiDAR perception task of Occupancy Completion and Forecasting (OCF) in the context of autonomous driving to unify these aspects into a cohesive framework. This task requires new algorithms to address three challenges altogether: (1) sparse-to-dense reconstruction, (2) partial-to-complete hallucination, and (3) 3D-to-4D prediction. To enable supervision and evaluation, we curate a large-scale dataset termed OCFBench from public autonomous driving datasets. We analyze the performance of closely related existing baseline models and our own ones on our dataset. We envision that this research will inspire and call for further investigation in this evolving and crucial area of 4D perception. Our code for data curation and baseline implementation is available at https://github.com/ai4ce/Occ4cast.

Analytic provenance can be visually encoded to help users track their ongoing analysis trajectories, recall past interactions, and inform new analytic directions. Despite its significance, provenance is often hardwired into analytics systems, affording limited user control and opportunities for self-reflection. We thus propose modeling provenance as an attribute that is available to users during analysis. We demonstrate this concept by modeling two provenance attributes that track the recency and frequency of user interactions with data. We integrate these attributes into a visual data analysis system prototype, ProvenanceLens, wherein users can visualize their interaction recency and frequency by mapping them to encoding channels (e.g., color, size) or applying data transformations (e.g., filter, sort). Using ProvenanceLens as a design probe, we conduct an exploratory study with sixteen users to investigate how these provenance-tracking affordances are utilized for both decision-making and self-reflection. We find that users can accurately and confidently answer questions about their analysis, and we show that mismatches between the user's mental model and the provenance encodings can be surprising, thereby prompting useful self-reflection. We also report on the user strategies surrounding these affordances, and reflect on their intuitiveness and effectiveness in representing provenance.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

Labeling LiDAR point clouds is notoriously time-and-energy-consuming, which spurs recent unsupervised 3D representation learning methods to alleviate the labeling burden in LiDAR perception via pretrained weights. Almost all existing work focus on a single frame of LiDAR point cloud and neglect the temporal LiDAR sequence, which naturally accounts for object motion (and their semantics). Instead, we propose TREND, namely Temporal REndering with Neural fielD, to learn 3D representation via forecasting the future observation in an unsupervised manner. Unlike existing work that follows conventional contrastive learning or masked auto encoding paradigms, TREND integrates forecasting for 3D pre-training through a Recurrent Embedding scheme to generate 3D embedding across time and a Temporal Neural Field to represent the 3D scene, through which we compute the loss using differentiable rendering. To our best knowledge, TREND is the first work on temporal forecasting for unsupervised 3D representation learning. We evaluate TREND on downstream 3D object detection tasks on popular datasets, including NuScenes, Once and Waymo. Experiment results show that TREND brings up to 90% more improvement as compared to previous SOTA unsupervised 3D pre-training methods and generally improve different downstream models across datasets, demonstrating that indeed temporal forecasting brings improvement for LiDAR perception. Codes and models will be released.

Generalization in robot manipulation is essential for deploying robots in open-world environments and advancing toward artificial general intelligence. While recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models leverage large pre-trained understanding models for perception and instruction following, their ability to generalize to novel tasks, objects, and settings remains limited. In this work, we present VideoVLA, a simple approach that explores the potential of transforming large video generation models into robotic VLA manipulators. Given a language instruction and an image, VideoVLA predicts an action sequence as well as the future visual outcomes. Built on a multi-modal Diffusion Transformer, VideoVLA jointly models video, language, and action modalities, using pre-trained video generative models for joint visual and action forecasting. Our experiments show that high-quality imagined futures correlate with reliable action predictions and task success, highlighting the importance of visual imagination in manipulation. VideoVLA demonstrates strong generalization, including imitating other embodiments' skills and handling novel objects. This dual-prediction strategy - forecasting both actions and their visual consequences - explores a paradigm shift in robot learning and unlocks generalization capabilities in manipulation systems.

Remote sensing world models aim to both explain observed changes and forecast plausible futures, two tasks that share spatiotemporal priors. Existing methods, however, typically address them separately, limiting cross-task transfer. We present RS-WorldModel, a unified world model for remote sensing that jointly handles spatiotemporal change understanding and text-guided future scene forecasting, and we build RSWBench-1.1M, a 1.1 million sample dataset with rich language annotations covering both tasks. RS-WorldModel is trained in three stages: (1) Geo-Aware Generative Pre-training (GAGP) conditions forecasting on geographic and acquisition metadata; (2) synergistic instruction tuning (SIT) jointly trains understanding and forecasting; (3) verifiable reinforcement optimization (VRO) refines outputs with verifiable, task-specific rewards. With only 2B parameters, RS-WorldModel surpasses open-source models up to 120 times larger on most spatiotemporal change question-answering metrics. It achieves an FID of 43.13 on text-guided future scene forecasting, outperforming all open-source baselines as well as the closed-source Gemini-2.5-Flash Image (Nano Banana).

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Real-time 3D hand forecasting is a critical component for fluid human-computer interaction in applications like AR and assistive robotics. However, existing methods are ill-suited for these scenarios, as they typically require offline access to accumulated video sequences and cannot incorporate language guidance that conveys task intent. To overcome these limitations, we introduce SFHand, the first streaming framework for language-guided 3D hand forecasting. SFHand autoregressively predicts a comprehensive set of future 3D hand states, including hand type, 2D bounding box, 3D pose, and trajectory, from a continuous stream of video and language instructions. Our framework combines a streaming autoregressive architecture with an ROI-enhanced memory layer, capturing temporal context while focusing on salient hand-centric regions. To enable this research, we also introduce EgoHaFL, the first large-scale dataset featuring synchronized 3D hand poses and language instructions. We demonstrate that SFHand achieves new state-of-the-art results in 3D hand forecasting, outperforming prior work by a significant margin of up to 35.8%. Furthermore, we show the practical utility of our learned representations by transferring them to downstream embodied manipulation tasks, improving task success rates by up to 13.4% on multiple benchmarks. Dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ut-vision/EgoHaFL, project page: https://github.com/ut-vision/SFHand.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models convert high-level language instructions into concrete, executable actions, a task that is especially challenging in open-world environments. We present Visual Foresight Planning (ForeAct), a general and efficient planner that guides a VLA step-by-step using imagined future observations and subtask descriptions. With an imagined future observation, the VLA can focus on visuo-motor inference rather than high-level semantic reasoning, leading to improved accuracy and generalization. Our planner comprises a highly efficient foresight image generation module that predicts a high-quality 640times480 future observation from the current visual input and language instruction within only 0.33s on an H100 GPU, together with a vision-language model that reasons over the task and produces subtask descriptions for both the generator and the VLA. Importantly, state-of-the-art VLAs can integrate our planner seamlessly by simply augmenting their visual inputs, without any architectural modification. The foresight generator is pretrained on over 1 million multi-task, cross-embodiment episodes, enabling it to learn robust embodied dynamics. We evaluate our framework on a benchmark that consists of 11 diverse, multi-step real-world tasks. It achieves an average success rate of 87.4%, demonstrating a +40.9% absolute improvement over the π_0 baseline (46.5%) and a +30.3% absolute improvement over π_0 augmented with textual subtask guidance (57.1%).

The task of collaborative human pose forecasting stands for predicting the future poses of multiple interacting people, given those in previous frames. Predicting two people in interaction, instead of each separately, promises better performance, due to their body-body motion correlations. But the task has remained so far primarily unexplored. In this paper, we review the progress in human pose forecasting and provide an in-depth assessment of the single-person practices that perform best for 2-body collaborative motion forecasting. Our study confirms the positive impact of frequency input representations, space-time separable and fully-learnable interaction adjacencies for the encoding GCN and FC decoding. Other single-person practices do not transfer to 2-body, so the proposed best ones do not include hierarchical body modeling or attention-based interaction encoding. We further contribute a novel initialization procedure for the 2-body spatial interaction parameters of the encoder, which benefits performance and stability. Altogether, our proposed 2-body pose forecasting best practices yield a performance improvement of 21.9% over the state-of-the-art on the most recent ExPI dataset, whereby the novel initialization accounts for 3.5%. See our project page at https://www.pinlab.org/bestpractices2body

We present Actron3D, a framework that enables robots to acquire transferable 6-DoF manipulation skills from just a few monocular, uncalibrated, RGB-only human videos. At its core lies the Neural Affordance Function, a compact object-centric representation that distills actionable cues from diverse uncalibrated videos-geometry, visual appearance, and affordance-into a lightweight neural network, forming a memory bank of manipulation skills. During deployment, we adopt a pipeline that retrieves relevant affordance functions and transfers precise 6-DoF manipulation policies via coarse-to-fine optimization, enabled by continuous queries to the multimodal features encoded in the neural functions. Experiments in both simulation and the real world demonstrate that Actron3D significantly outperforms prior methods, achieving a 14.9 percentage point improvement in average success rate across 13 tasks while requiring only 2-3 demonstration videos per task.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

This work presents IAAO, a novel framework that builds an explicit 3D model for intelligent agents to gain understanding of articulated objects in their environment through interaction. Unlike prior methods that rely on task-specific networks and assumptions about movable parts, our IAAO leverages large foundation models to estimate interactive affordances and part articulations in three stages. We first build hierarchical features and label fields for each object state using 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) by distilling mask features and view-consistent labels from multi-view images. We then perform object- and part-level queries on the 3D Gaussian primitives to identify static and articulated elements, estimating global transformations and local articulation parameters along with affordances. Finally, scenes from different states are merged and refined based on the estimated transformations, enabling robust affordance-based interaction and manipulation of objects. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

Task driven object detection aims to detect object instances suitable for affording a task in an image. Its challenge lies in object categories available for the task being too diverse to be limited to a closed set of object vocabulary for traditional object detection. Simply mapping categories and visual features of common objects to the task cannot address the challenge. In this paper, we propose to explore fundamental affordances rather than object categories, i.e., common attributes that enable different objects to accomplish the same task. Moreover, we propose a novel multi-level chain-of-thought prompting (MLCoT) to extract the affordance knowledge from large language models, which contains multi-level reasoning steps from task to object examples to essential visual attributes with rationales. Furthermore, to fully exploit knowledge to benefit object recognition and localization, we propose a knowledge-conditional detection framework, namely CoTDet. It conditions the detector from the knowledge to generate object queries and regress boxes. Experimental results demonstrate that our CoTDet outperforms state-of-the-art methods consistently and significantly (+15.6 box AP and +14.8 mask AP) and can generate rationales for why objects are detected to afford the task.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Text-to-image (T2I) models enable rapid concept design, making them widely used in AI-driven design. While recent studies focus on generating semantic and stylistic variations of given design concepts, functional coherence--the integration of multiple affordances into a single coherent concept--remains largely overlooked. In this paper, we introduce SYNTHIA, a framework for generating novel, functionally coherent designs based on desired affordances. Our approach leverages a hierarchical concept ontology that decomposes concepts into parts and affordances, serving as a crucial building block for functionally coherent design. We also develop a curriculum learning scheme based on our ontology that contrastively fine-tunes T2I models to progressively learn affordance composition while maintaining visual novelty. To elaborate, we (i) gradually increase affordance distance, guiding models from basic concept-affordance association to complex affordance compositions that integrate parts of distinct affordances into a single, coherent form, and (ii) enforce visual novelty by employing contrastive objectives to push learned representations away from existing concepts. Experimental results show that SYNTHIA outperforms state-of-the-art T2I models, demonstrating absolute gains of 25.1% and 14.7% for novelty and functional coherence in human evaluation, respectively.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly pivotal for generalist robot manipulation, enabling tasks such as physical reasoning, policy generation, and failure detection. However, their proficiency in these high-level applications often assumes a deep understanding of low-level physical prerequisites, a capability that remains largely unverified. For robots to perform actions reliably, they must comprehend intrinsic object properties (e.g., material, weight), action affordances (e.g., graspable, stackable), and physical constraints (e.g., stability, reachability, or an object's state, such as being closed). Despite the widespread use of VLMs in manipulation tasks, we argue that off-the-shelf models may lack this granular, physically grounded understanding, as such prerequisites are often overlooked during training. To address this critical gap, we introduce PAC Bench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to systematically evaluate VLMs on their understanding of core Properties, Affordances, and Constraints (PAC) from a task executability perspective. PAC Bench features a diverse dataset with over 30,000 annotations, comprising 673 real-world images (115 object classes, 15 property types, and 1 to 3 affordances defined per class), 100 real-world humanoid-view scenarios, and 120 unique simulated constraint scenarios across four tasks. Our evaluations reveal significant gaps in the ability of current VLMs to grasp fundamental physical concepts, highlighting limitations in their suitability for reliable robot manipulation and pointing to key areas for targeted research. PAC Bench also serves as a standardized benchmark for rigorously evaluating physical reasoning in VLMs and guiding the development of more robust, physically grounded models for robotic applications. Project Page: https://pacbench.github.io/

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.