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Jun 22

Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

  • 1 authors
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May 10

A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Variant Designs Beyond the Single-Market Binary Case

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

  • 1 authors
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May 10

PdfTable: A Unified Toolkit for Deep Learning-Based Table Extraction

Currently, a substantial volume of document data exists in an unstructured format, encompassing Portable Document Format (PDF) files and images. Extracting information from these documents presents formidable challenges due to diverse table styles, complex forms, and the inclusion of different languages. Several open-source toolkits, such as Camelot, Plumb a PDF (pdfnumber), and Paddle Paddle Structure V2 (PP-StructureV2), have been developed to facilitate table extraction from PDFs or images. However, each toolkit has its limitations. Camelot and pdfnumber can solely extract tables from digital PDFs and cannot handle image-based PDFs and pictures. On the other hand, PP-StructureV2 can comprehensively extract image-based PDFs and tables from pictures. Nevertheless, it lacks the ability to differentiate between diverse application scenarios, such as wired tables and wireless tables, digital PDFs, and image-based PDFs. To address these issues, we have introduced the PDF table extraction (PdfTable) toolkit. This toolkit integrates numerous open-source models, including seven table recognition models, four Optical character recognition (OCR) recognition tools, and three layout analysis models. By refining the PDF table extraction process, PdfTable achieves adaptability across various application scenarios. We substantiate the efficacy of the PdfTable toolkit through verification on a self-labeled wired table dataset and the open-source wireless Publicly Table Reconition Dataset (PubTabNet). The PdfTable code will available on Github: https://github.com/CycloneBoy/pdf_table.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 8, 2024