Daily Papers

We study reliability in autonomous language-model agents that translate user mandates into validated tool actions under real capital. The setting is DX Terminal Pro, a 21-day deployment in which 3,505 user-funded agents traded real ETH in a bounded onchain market. Users configured vaults through structured controls and natural-language strategies, but only agents could choose normal buy/sell trades. The system produced 7.5M agent invocations, roughly 300K onchain actions, about $20M in volume, more than 5,000 ETH deployed, roughly 70B inference tokens, and 99.9% settlement success for policy-valid submitted transactions. Long-running agents accumulated thousands of sequential decisions, including 6,000+ prompt-state-action cycles for continuously active agents, yielding a large-scale trace from user mandate to rendered prompt, reasoning, validation, portfolio state, and settlement. Reliability did not come from the base model alone; it emerged from the operating layer around the model: prompt compilation, typed controls, policy validation, execution guards, memory design, and trace-level observability. Pre-launch testing exposed failures that text-only benchmarks rarely measure, including fabricated trading rules, fee paralysis, numeric anchoring, cadence trading, and misread tokenomics. Targeted harness changes reduced fabricated sell rules from 57% to 3%, reduced fee-led observations from 32.5% to below 10%, and increased capital deployment from 42.9% to 78.0% in an affected test population. We show that capital-managing agents should be evaluated across the full path from user mandate to prompt, validated action, and settlement.

We present MAESTRO, an evaluation suite for the testing, reliability, and observability of LLM-based MAS. MAESTRO standardizes MAS configuration and execution through a unified interface, supports integrating both native and third-party MAS via a repository of examples and lightweight adapters, and exports framework-agnostic execution traces together with system-level signals (e.g., latency, cost, and failures). We instantiate MAESTRO with 12 representative MAS spanning popular agentic frameworks and interaction patterns, and conduct controlled experiments across repeated runs, backend models, and tool configurations. Our case studies show that MAS executions can be structurally stable yet temporally variable, leading to substantial run-to-run variance in performance and reliability. We further find that MAS architecture is the dominant driver of resource profiles, reproducibility, and cost-latency-accuracy trade-off, often outweighing changes in backend models or tool settings. Overall, MAESTRO enables systematic evaluation and provides empirical guidance for designing and optimizing agentic systems.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

Much has been said about observability in system theory and control; however, it has been recently that observability in complex networks has seriously attracted the attention of researchers. This paper examines the state-of-the-art and discusses some issues raised due to "complexity" and "stochasticity". These unresolved issues call for a new practical methodology. For stochastic systems, a degree of observability may be defined and the observability problem is not a binary (i.e., yes-no) question anymore. Here, we propose to employ a goal-seeking system to play a supervisory role in the network. Hence, improving the degree of observability would be a valid objective for the supervisory system. Towards this goal, the supervisor dynamically optimizes the observation process by reconfiguring the sensory parts in the network. A cognitive dynamic system is suggested as a proper choice for the supervisory system. In this framework, the network itself is viewed as the environment with which the cognitive dynamic system interacts. Computer experiments confirm the potential of the proposed approach for addressing some of the issues raised in networks due to complexity and stochasticity.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate code with subtle but critical bugs, especially for complex tasks. Existing automated repair methods typically rely on superficial pass/fail signals, offering limited visibility into program behavior and hindering precise error localization. In addition, without a way to learn from prior failures, repair processes often fall into repetitive and inefficient cycles. To overcome these challenges, we present TraceCoder, a collaborative multi-agent framework that emulates the observe-analyze-repair process of human experts. The framework first instruments the code with diagnostic probes to capture fine-grained runtime traces, enabling deep insight into its internal execution. It then conducts causal analysis on these traces to accurately identify the root cause of the failure. This process is further enhanced by a novel Historical Lesson Learning Mechanism (HLLM), which distills insights from prior failed repair attempts to inform subsequent correction strategies and prevent recurrence of similar mistakes. To ensure stable convergence, a Rollback Mechanism enforces that each repair iteration constitutes a strict improvement toward the correct solution. Comprehensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that TraceCoder achieves up to a 34.43\% relative improvement in Pass@1 accuracy over existing advanced baselines. Ablation studies verify the significance of each system component, with the iterative repair process alone contributing a 65.61\% relative gain in accuracy. Furthermore, TraceCoder significantly outperforms leading iterative methods in terms of both accuracy and cost-efficiency.

We study a class of optimization problems motivated by automating the design and update of AI systems like coding assistants, robots, and copilots. We propose an end-to-end optimization framework, Trace, which treats the computational workflow of an AI system as a graph akin to neural networks, based on a generalization of back-propagation. Optimization of computational workflows often involves rich feedback (e.g. console output or user's responses), heterogeneous parameters (e.g. prompts, hyper-parameters, codes), and intricate objectives (beyond maximizing a score). Moreover, its computation graph can change dynamically with the inputs and parameters. We frame a new mathematical setup of iterative optimization, Optimization with Trace Oracle (OPTO), to capture and abstract these properties so as to design optimizers that work across many domains. In OPTO, an optimizer receives an execution trace along with feedback on the computed output and updates parameters iteratively. Trace is the tool to implement OPTO in practice. Trace has a Python interface that efficiently converts a computational workflow into an OPTO instance using a PyTorch-like interface. Using Trace, we develop a general-purpose LLM-based optimizer called OptoPrime that can effectively solve OPTO problems. In empirical studies, we find that OptoPrime is capable of first-order numerical optimization, prompt optimization, hyper-parameter tuning, robot controller design, code debugging, etc., and is often competitive with specialized optimizers for each domain. We believe that Trace, OptoPrime and the OPTO framework will enable the next generation of interactive agents that automatically adapt using various kinds of feedback. Website: https://microsoft.github.io/Trace

Embodied AI agents that search for objects in large environments such as households often need to make efficient decisions by predicting object locations based on partial information. We pose this as a new type of link prediction problem: link prediction on partially observable dynamic graphs. Our graph is a representation of a scene in which rooms and objects are nodes, and their relationships are encoded in the edges; only parts of the changing graph are known to the agent at each timestep. This partial observability poses a challenge to existing link prediction approaches, which we address. We propose a novel state representation -- Scene Graph Memory (SGM) -- with captures the agent's accumulated set of observations, as well as a neural net architecture called a Node Edge Predictor (NEP) that extracts information from the SGM to search efficiently. We evaluate our method in the Dynamic House Simulator, a new benchmark that creates diverse dynamic graphs following the semantic patterns typically seen at homes, and show that NEP can be trained to predict the locations of objects in a variety of environments with diverse object movement dynamics, outperforming baselines both in terms of new scene adaptability and overall accuracy. The codebase and more can be found at https://www.scenegraphmemory.com.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

We propose a new partial-observability model for online learning problems where the learner, besides its own loss, also observes some noisy feedback about the other actions, depending on the underlying structure of the problem. We represent this structure by a weighted directed graph, where the edge weights are related to the quality of the feedback shared by the connected nodes. Our main contribution is an efficient algorithm that guarantees a regret of O(α^* T) after T rounds, where α^* is a novel graph property that we call the effective independence number. Our algorithm is completely parameter-free and does not require knowledge (or even estimation) of α^*. For the special case of binary edge weights, our setting reduces to the partial-observability models of Mannor and Shamir (2011) and Alon et al. (2013) and our algorithm recovers the near-optimal regret bounds.

We implement and benchmark on IBM Quantum hardware the circuit family proposed by Violaris for estimating operational inter-branch communication witnesses, defined as correlations in classical measurement records produced by compiled Wigner's-friend-style circuits. We realize a five-qubit instance of the protocol as an inter-register message-transfer pattern within a single circuit, rather than physical signaling, and evaluate its behavior under realistic device noise and compilation constraints. The circuit encodes branch-conditioned evolution of an observer subsystem whose dynamics depend on a control qubit, followed by a controlled transfer operation that probes correlations between conditional measurement contexts. Executing on the ibm_fez backend with 20000 shots, we observe population-based visibility of 0.877, coherence witnesses of 0.840 and -0.811 along orthogonal axes, and a phase-sensitive magnitude of approximately 1.17. While the visibility metric is insensitive to some classes of dephasing, the coherence witnesses provide complementary sensitivity to off-diagonal noise. This work does not test or discriminate among interpretations of quantum mechanics. Instead, it provides a reproducible operational constraint pipeline for evaluating detectability of non-ideal channels relative to calibrated device noise.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Observability into the decision making of modern AI systems may be required to safely deploy increasingly capable agents. Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of today's reasoning models has proven effective for detecting misbehavior. However, this "monitorability" may be fragile under different training procedures, data sources, or even continued system scaling. To measure and track monitorability, we propose three evaluation archetypes (intervention, process, and outcome-property) and a new monitorability metric, and introduce a broad evaluation suite. We demonstrate that these evaluations can catch simple model organisms trained to have obfuscated CoTs, and that CoT monitoring is more effective than action-only monitoring in practical settings. We compare the monitorability of various frontier models and find that most models are fairly, but not perfectly, monitorable. We also evaluate how monitorability scales with inference-time compute, reinforcement learning optimization, and pre-training model size. We find that longer CoTs are generally more monitorable and that RL optimization does not materially decrease monitorability even at the current frontier scale. Notably, we find that for a model at a low reasoning effort, we could instead deploy a smaller model at a higher reasoning effort (thereby matching capabilities) and obtain a higher monitorability, albeit at a higher overall inference compute cost. We further investigate agent-monitor scaling trends and find that scaling a weak monitor's test-time compute when monitoring a strong agent increases monitorability. Giving the weak monitor access to CoT not only improves monitorability, but it steepens the monitor's test-time compute to monitorability scaling trend. Finally, we show we can improve monitorability by asking models follow-up questions and giving their follow-up CoT to the monitor.

Every call to an LLM classification endpoint produces a labeled input-output pair already retained in production logs. These pairs constitute a free, growing training set: a lightweight surrogate trained on them can absorb a significant portion of future traffic at near-zero marginal inference cost. The open questions are when the surrogate is reliable enough to deploy, what it handles versus defers, and how that boundary evolves as data accumulates. We introduce TRACER (Trace-based Adaptive Cost-Efficient Routing), an open-source system that trains ML surrogates on an LLM's own production traces and governs deployment through a parity gate: the surrogate is activated only when its agreement with the LLM exceeds a user-specified threshold α. To make the routing boundary transparent, TRACER generates interpretability artifacts describing which input regions the surrogate handles, where it plateaus, and why it defers. On a 77-class intent benchmark with a Sonnet 4.6 teacher, TRACER achieves 83-100% surrogate coverage depending on the quality target α; on a 150-class benchmark, the surrogate fully replaces the teacher. On a natural language inference task, the parity gate correctly refuses deployment because the embedding representation cannot support reliable separation. The system is available as open-source software.

Large language models can generate fluent answers that are unfaithful to the provided context, while many safeguards rely on external verification or a separate judge after generation. We introduce internal flow signatures that audit decision formation from depthwise dynamics at a fixed inter-block monitoring boundary. The method stabilizes token-wise motion via bias-centered monitoring, then summarizes trajectories in compact moving readout-aligned subspaces constructed from the top token and its close competitors within each depth window. Neighboring window frames are aligned by an orthogonal transport, yielding depth-comparable transported step lengths, turning angles, and subspace drift summaries that are invariant to within-window basis choices. A lightweight GRU validator trained on these signatures performs self-checking without modifying the base model. Beyond detection, the validator localizes a culprit depth event and enables a targeted refinement: the model rolls back to the culprit token and clamps an abnormal transported step at the identified block while preserving the orthogonal residual. The resulting pipeline provides actionable localization and low-overhead self-checking from internal decision dynamics. Code is available at github.com/EavnJeong/Internal-Flow-Signatures-for-Self-Checking-and-Refinement-in-LLMs.

We present a unified framework for studying the identifiability of representations learned from simultaneously observed views, such as different data modalities. We allow a partially observed setting in which each view constitutes a nonlinear mixture of a subset of underlying latent variables, which can be causally related. We prove that the information shared across all subsets of any number of views can be learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single encoder per view. We also provide graphical criteria indicating which latent variables can be identified through a simple set of rules, which we refer to as identifiability algebra. Our general framework and theoretical results unify and extend several previous works on multi-view nonlinear ICA, disentanglement, and causal representation learning. We experimentally validate our claims on numerical, image, and multi-modal data sets. Further, we demonstrate that the performance of prior methods is recovered in different special cases of our setup. Overall, we find that access to multiple partial views enables us to identify a more fine-grained representation, under the generally milder assumption of partial observability.

Effective spatio-temporal representation is fundamental to modeling, understanding, and predicting dynamics in videos. The atomic unit of a video, the pixel, traces a continuous 3D trajectory over time, serving as the primitive element of dynamics. Based on this principle, we propose representing any video as a Trajectory Field: a dense mapping that assigns a continuous 3D trajectory function of time to each pixel in every frame. With this representation, we introduce Trace Anything, a neural network that predicts the entire trajectory field in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, for each pixel in each frame, our model predicts a set of control points that parameterizes a trajectory (i.e., a B-spline), yielding its 3D position at arbitrary query time instants. We trained the Trace Anything model on large-scale 4D data, including data from our new platform, and our experiments demonstrate that: (i) Trace Anything achieves state-of-the-art performance on our new benchmark for trajectory field estimation and performs competitively on established point-tracking benchmarks; (ii) it offers significant efficiency gains thanks to its one-pass paradigm, without requiring iterative optimization or auxiliary estimators; and (iii) it exhibits emergent abilities, including goal-conditioned manipulation, motion forecasting, and spatio-temporal fusion. Project page: https://trace-anything.github.io/.

We investigate causal computations taking sequences of inputs to sequences of outputs where the nth output depends on the first n inputs only. We model these in category theory via a construction taking a Cartesian category C to another category St(C) with a novel trace-like operation called "delayed trace", which misses yanking and dinaturality axioms of the usual trace. The delayed trace operation provides a feedback mechanism in St(C) with an implicit guardedness guarantee. When C is equipped with a Cartesian differential operator, we construct a differential operator for St(C) using an abstract version of backpropagation through time, a technique from machine learning based on unrolling of functions. This obtains a swath of properties for backpropagation through time, including a chain rule and Schwartz theorem. Our differential operator is also able to compute the derivative of a stateful network without requiring the network to be unrolled.

We study the problem of identifying an anomalous subset of streams under correlated noise, motivated by monitoring and security in cyber-physical systems. This problem can be viewed as a form of combinatorial pure exploration, where each stream plays the role of an arm and measurements must be allocated sequentially under uncertainty. Existing combinatorial bandit and hypothesis testing methods typically assume independent observations and fail to exploit correlation for efficient measurement design. We propose ECC-AHT, an adaptive algorithm that selects continuous, constrained measurements to maximize Chernoff information between competing hypotheses, enabling active noise cancellation through differential sensing. ECC-AHT achieves optimal sample complexity guarantees and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both synthetic and real-world correlated environments. The code is available on https://github.com/VincentdeCristo/ECC-AHT

Given only observational data X = g(Z), where both the latent variables Z and the generating process g are unknown, recovering Z is ill-posed without additional assumptions. Existing methods often assume linearity or rely on auxiliary supervision and functional constraints. However, such assumptions are rarely verifiable in practice, and most theoretical guarantees break down under even mild violations, leaving uncertainty about how to reliably understand the hidden world. To make identifiability actionable in the real-world scenarios, we take a complementary view: in the general settings where full identifiability is unattainable, what can still be recovered with guarantees, and what biases could be universally adopted? We introduce the problem of diverse dictionary learning to formalize this view. Specifically, we show that intersections, complements, and symmetric differences of latent variables linked to arbitrary observations, along with the latent-to-observed dependency structure, are still identifiable up to appropriate indeterminacies even without strong assumptions. These set-theoretic results can be composed using set algebra to construct structured and essential views of the hidden world, such as genus-differentia definitions. When sufficient structural diversity is present, they further imply full identifiability of all latent variables. Notably, all identifiability benefits follow from a simple inductive bias during estimation that can be readily integrated into most models. We validate the theory and demonstrate the benefits of the bias on both synthetic and real-world data.

This paper presents a low-dimensional observer design for stable, single-input single-output, continuous-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. Leveraging the model reduction by moment matching technique, we approximate the system with a reduced-order model. Based on this reduced-order model, we design a low-dimensional observer that estimates the states of the original system. We show that this observer establishes exact asymptotic state reconstruction for a given class of inputs tied to the observer's dimension. Furthermore, we establish an exponential input-to-state stability property for generic inputs, ensuring a bounded estimation error. Numerical simulations confirm the effectiveness of the approach for a benchmark model reduction problem.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently "hallucinate" - generate plausible yet factually incorrect statements - posing a critical barrier to their trustworthy deployment. In this work, we propose a new paradigm for diagnosing hallucinations, recasting them from static output errors into dynamic pathologies of a model's computational cognition. Our framework is grounded in a normative principle of computational rationality, allowing us to model a VLM's generation as a dynamic cognitive trajectory. We design a suite of information-theoretic probes that project this trajectory onto an interpretable, low-dimensional Cognitive State Space. Our central discovery is a governing principle we term the geometric-information duality: a cognitive trajectory's geometric abnormality within this space is fundamentally equivalent to its high information-theoretic surprisal. Hallucination detection is counts as a geometric anomaly detection problem. Evaluated across diverse settings - from rigorous binary QA (POPE) and comprehensive reasoning (MME) to unconstrained open-ended captioning (MS-COCO) - our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance. Crucially, it operates with high efficiency under weak supervision and remains highly robust even when calibration data is heavily contaminated. This approach enables a causal attribution of failures, mapping observable errors to distinct pathological states: perceptual instability (measured by Perceptual Entropy), logical-causal failure (measured by Inferential Conflict), and decisional ambiguity (measured by Decision Entropy). Ultimately, this opens a path toward building AI systems whose reasoning is transparent, auditable, and diagnosable by design.

Mechanistic interpretability seeks to understand the internal mechanisms of machine learning models, where localization -- identifying the important model components -- is a key step. Activation patching, also known as causal tracing or interchange intervention, is a standard technique for this task (Vig et al., 2020), but the literature contains many variants with little consensus on the choice of hyperparameters or methodology. In this work, we systematically examine the impact of methodological details in activation patching, including evaluation metrics and corruption methods. In several settings of localization and circuit discovery in language models, we find that varying these hyperparameters could lead to disparate interpretability results. Backed by empirical observations, we give conceptual arguments for why certain metrics or methods may be preferred. Finally, we provide recommendations for the best practices of activation patching going forwards.

As Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) are increasingly deployed, auditing their chain-of-thought (CoT) traces for safety becomes critical. Recent work has reported that monitorability--the degree to which CoT faithfully and informatively reflects internal computation--can appear as a "free gift" during the early stages of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). We make this observation concrete through a systematic evaluation across model families and training domains. Our results show that this effect is not universal: monitorability improvements are strongly data-dependent. In particular, we demonstrate the critical role of data diversity and instruction-following data during RLVR training. We further show that monitorability is orthogonal to capability--improvements in reasoning performance do not imply increased transparency. Through mechanistic analysis, we attribute monitorability gains primarily to response distribution sharpening (entropy reduction) and increased attention to the prompt, rather than stronger causal reliance on reasoning traces. We also reveal how monitorability dynamics vary with controlled training and evaluation difficulty. Together, these findings provide a holistic view of how monitorability emerges under RLVR, clarifying when gains are likely to occur and when they are not.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Models like OpenAI-o3 pioneer visual grounded reasoning by dynamically referencing visual regions, just like human "thinking with images". However, no benchmark exists to evaluate these capabilities holistically. To bridge this gap, we propose TreeBench (Traceable Evidence Evaluation Benchmark), a diagnostic benchmark built on three principles: (1) focused visual perception of subtle targets in complex scenes, (2) traceable evidence via bounding box evaluation, and (3) second-order reasoning to test object interactions and spatial hierarchies beyond simple object localization. Prioritizing images with dense objects, we initially sample 1K high-quality images from SA-1B, and incorporate eight LMM experts to manually annotate questions, candidate options, and answers for each image. After three stages of quality control, TreeBench consists of 405 challenging visual question-answering pairs, even the most advanced models struggle with this benchmark, where none of them reach 60% accuracy, e.g., OpenAI-o3 scores only 54.87. Furthermore, we introduce TreeVGR (Traceable Evidence Enhanced Visual Grounded Reasoning), a training paradigm to supervise localization and reasoning jointly with reinforcement learning, enabling accurate localizations and explainable reasoning pathways. Initialized from Qwen2.5-VL-7B, it improves V* Bench (+16.8), MME-RealWorld (+12.6), and TreeBench (+13.4), proving traceability is key to advancing vision-grounded reasoning. The code is available at https://github.com/Haochen-Wang409/TreeVGR.

In the realm of large language models (LLMs), the ability of models to accurately follow instructions is paramount as more agents and applications leverage LLMs for construction, where the complexity of instructions are rapidly increasing. However, on the one hand, there is only a certain amount of complex instruction evaluation data; on the other hand, there are no dedicated algorithms to improve the ability to follow complex instructions. To this end, this paper introduces TRACE, a benchmark for improving and evaluating the complex instructionfollowing ability, which consists of 120K training data and 1K evaluation data. Furthermore, we propose IOPO (Input-Output Preference Optimization) alignment method which takes both input and output preference pairs into consideration, where LLMs not only rapidly align with response preferences but also meticulously explore the instruction preferences. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and outof-domain datasets confirm the effectiveness of IOPO, showing 8.15%, 2.18% improvements on in-domain data and 6.29%, 3.13% on outof-domain data compared to SFT and DPO respectively.

Forensic analyses of digital images rely heavily on the traces of in-camera and out-camera processes left on the acquired images. Such traces represent a sort of camera fingerprint. If one is able to recover them, by suppressing the high-level scene content and other disturbances, a number of forensic tasks can be easily accomplished. A notable example is the PRNU pattern, which can be regarded as a device fingerprint, and has received great attention in multimedia forensics. In this paper we propose a method to extract a camera model fingerprint, called noiseprint, where the scene content is largely suppressed and model-related artifacts are enhanced. This is obtained by means of a Siamese network, which is trained with pairs of image patches coming from the same (label +1) or different (label -1) cameras. Although noiseprints can be used for a large variety of forensic tasks, here we focus on image forgery localization. Experiments on several datasets widespread in the forensic community show noiseprint-based methods to provide state-of-the-art performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) deployed in agentic environments must exercise multiple capabilities across different task instances, where a capability is performing one or more actions in a trajectory that are necessary for successfully solving a subset of tasks in the environment. Many existing approaches either rely on synthetic training data that is not targeted to the model's actual capability deficits in the target environment or train directly on the target environment, where the model needs to implicitly learn the capabilities across tasks. We introduce TRACE (Turning Recurrent Agent failures into Capability-targeted training Environments), an end-to-end system for environment-specific agent self-improvement. TRACE contrasts successful and failed trajectories to automatically identify lacking capabilities, synthesizes a targeted training environment for each that rewards whether the capability was exercised, and trains a LoRA adapter via RL on each synthetic environment, routing to the relevant adapter at inference. Empirically, TRACE generalizes across different environments, improving over the base agent by +14.1 points on τ^2-bench (customer service) and +7 perfect scores on ToolSandbox (tool use), outperforming the strongest baseline by +7.4 points and +4 perfect scores, respectively. Given the same number of rollouts, TRACE scales more efficiently than baselines, outperforming GRPO and GEPA by +9.2 and +7.4 points on τ^2-bench.

We study the behavior of deterministic methods for solving inverse problems in imaging. These methods are commonly designed to achieve two goals: (1) attaining high perceptual quality, and (2) generating reconstructions that are consistent with the measurements. We provide a rigorous proof that the better a predictor satisfies these two requirements, the larger its Lipschitz constant must be, regardless of the nature of the degradation involved. In particular, to approach perfect perceptual quality and perfect consistency, the Lipschitz constant of the model must grow to infinity. This implies that such methods are necessarily more susceptible to adversarial attacks. We demonstrate our theory on single image super-resolution algorithms, addressing both noisy and noiseless settings. We also show how this undesired behavior can be leveraged to explore the posterior distribution, thereby allowing the deterministic model to imitate stochastic methods.

In many real-world scenarios, obtaining fully observed samples is prohibitively expensive or even infeasible, while partial and noisy observations are comparatively easy to collect. In this work, we study distribution restoration with abundant noisy samples, assuming the corruption process is available as a black-box generator. We show that this task can be framed as a one-sided entropic optimal transport problem and solved via an EM-like algorithm. We further provide a test criterion to determine whether the true underlying distribution is recoverable under per-sample information loss, and show that in otherwise unrecoverable cases, a small number of clean samples can render the distribution largely recoverable. Building on these insights, we introduce SFBD-OMNI, a bridge model-based framework that maps corrupted sample distributions to the ground-truth distribution. Our method generalizes Stochastic Forward-Backward Deconvolution (SFBD; Lu et al., 2025) to handle arbitrary measurement models beyond Gaussian corruption. Experiments across benchmark datasets and diverse measurement settings demonstrate significant improvements in both qualitative and quantitative performance.

The rapid advancements in Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS) have necessitated robust software testing to ensure safety and reliability. However, automating the generation of scalable and concrete test scenarios remains a significant challenge. Current scenario-based test case generation methods often face limitations, such as unrealistic scenes and inaccurate vehicle trajectories. These challenges largely result from the loss of map information during data extraction and the lack of an effective verification mechanism to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). This paper introduces TRACE, a scenario-based ADS Test case Generation framework for Critical Scenarios. By leveraging multimodal data to extract challenging scenarios from real-world car crash reports, TRACE constructs numerous critical test cases with less data, significantly enhancing ADS bug detection efficiency. Using in-context learning, chain-of-thought prompting, and self-validation approaches, we use LLMs to extract environmental and road network information from crash reports. For vehicle trajectory planning, data containing map information and vehicle coordinates serves as a knowledge base to build a ChatGPT-based LLM with path-planning capabilities, which we named TrackMate. Based on 50 existing crash reports, our approach successfully tested three ADS models across two simulation platforms, MetaDrive and BeamNG. Of the 290 constructed test scenarios, 127 are identified as critical, as they resulted in vehicle collisions. Additionally, user feedback reveals that TRACE demonstrates superior scenario reconstruction accuracy, with 77.5% of the scenarios being rated as 'mostly or 'totally' consistent, compared to only 27% for the most related SOTA, LCTGen.

Trajectory prediction is fundamental in computer vision and autonomous driving, particularly for understanding pedestrian behavior and enabling proactive decision-making. Existing approaches in this field often assume precise and complete observational data, neglecting the challenges associated with out-of-view objects and the noise inherent in sensor data due to limited camera range, physical obstructions, and the absence of ground truth for denoised sensor data. Such oversights are critical safety concerns, as they can result in missing essential, non-visible objects. To bridge this gap, we present a novel method for out-of-sight trajectory prediction that leverages a vision-positioning technique. Our approach denoises noisy sensor observations in an unsupervised manner and precisely maps sensor-based trajectories of out-of-sight objects into visual trajectories. This method has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in out-of-sight noisy sensor trajectory denoising and prediction on the Vi-Fi and JRDB datasets. By enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges of out-of-sight objects, our work significantly contributes to improving the safety and reliability of autonomous driving in complex environments. Our work represents the first initiative towards Out-Of-Sight Trajectory prediction (OOSTraj), setting a new benchmark for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Hai-chao-Zhang/OOSTraj.

The usage of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems is limited by our ability to guarantee their correct behavior. Runtime monitors are components aiming to identify unsafe predictions and discard them before they can lead to catastrophic consequences. Several recent works on runtime monitoring have focused on out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, i.e., identifying inputs that are different from the training data. In this work, we argue that OOD detection is not a well-suited framework to design efficient runtime monitors and that it is more relevant to evaluate monitors based on their ability to discard incorrect predictions. We call this setting out-ofmodel-scope detection and discuss the conceptual differences with OOD. We also conduct extensive experiments on popular datasets from the literature to show that studying monitors in the OOD setting can be misleading: 1. very good OOD results can give a false impression of safety, 2. comparison under the OOD setting does not allow identifying the best monitor to detect errors. Finally, we also show that removing erroneous training data samples helps to train better monitors.

Many hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for the application of ground state energy estimation in quantum chemistry involve estimating the expectation value of a molecular Hamiltonian with respect to a quantum state through measurements on a quantum device. To guide the selection of measurement methods designed for this observable estimation problem, we propose a benchmark called CSHOREBench (Common States and Hamiltonians for ObseRvable Estimation Benchmark) that assesses the performance of these methods against a set of common molecular Hamiltonians and common states encountered during the runtime of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms. In CSHOREBench, we account for resource utilization of a quantum computer through measurements of a prepared state, and a classical computer through computational runtime spent in proposing measurements and classical post-processing of acquired measurement outcomes. We apply CSHOREBench considering a variety of measurement methods on Hamiltonians of size up to 16 qubits. Our discussion is aided by using the framework of decision diagrams which provides an efficient data structure for various randomized methods and illustrate how to derandomize distributions on decision diagrams. In numerical simulations, we find that the methods of decision diagrams and derandomization are the most preferable. In experiments on IBM quantum devices against small molecules, we observe that decision diagrams reduces the number of measurements made by classical shadows by more than 80%, that made by locally biased classical shadows by around 57%, and consistently require fewer quantum measurements along with lower classical computational runtime than derandomization. Furthermore, CSHOREBench is empirically efficient to run when considering states of random quantum ansatz with fixed depth.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) outputs let us read a model's step-by-step reasoning. Since any long, serial reasoning process must pass through this textual trace, the quality of the CoT is a direct window into what the model is thinking. This visibility could help us spot unsafe or misaligned behavior (monitorability), but only if the CoT is transparent about its internal reasoning (faithfulness). Fully measuring faithfulness is difficult, so researchers often focus on examining the CoT in cases where the model changes its answer after adding a cue to the input. This proxy finds some instances of unfaithfulness but loses information when the model maintains its answer, and does not investigate aspects of reasoning not tied to the cue. We extend these results to a more holistic sense of monitorability by introducing verbosity: whether the CoT lists every factor needed to solve the task. We combine faithfulness and verbosity into a single monitorability score that shows how well the CoT serves as the model's external `working memory', a property that many safety schemes based on CoT monitoring depend on. We evaluate instruction-tuned and reasoning models on BBH, GPQA, and MMLU. Our results show that models can appear faithful yet remain hard to monitor when they leave out key factors, and that monitorability differs sharply across model families. We release our evaluation code using the Inspect library to support reproducible future work.

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) for instrument control requires methods that go beyond standard, stateless algorithmic benchmarks, since the behavior of physical systems cannot be fully captured by unit tests alone. Here we introduce EnvTrace, a simulation-based method that evaluates execution traces to assess semantic code equivalence. EnvTrace is demonstrated with a beamline control-logic digital twin to facilitate the evaluation of instrument control code, with the digital twin itself also enabling the pre-execution validation of live experiments. Over 30 LLMs were evaluated using trace alignment to generate a multi-faceted score for functional correctness across key behavioral dimensions, showing that many top-tier models can approach human-level performance in rapid control-code generation. This is a first step toward a broader vision where LLMs and digital twins work symbiotically: LLMs providing intuitive control and agentic orchestration, and digital twins offering safe and high-fidelity environments, paving the way towards autonomous embodied AI.

Despite the remarkable success of deep neural networks in a myriad of settings, several works have demonstrated their overwhelming sensitivity to near-imperceptible perturbations, known as adversarial attacks. On the other hand, prior works have also observed that deep networks can be under-sensitive, wherein large-magnitude perturbations in input space do not induce appreciable changes to network activations. In this work, we study in detail the phenomenon of under-sensitivity in vision models such as CNNs and Transformers, and present techniques to study the geometry and extent of "equi-confidence" level sets of such networks. We propose a Level Set Traversal algorithm that iteratively explores regions of high confidence with respect to the input space using orthogonal components of the local gradients. Given a source image, we use this algorithm to identify inputs that lie in the same equi-confidence level set as the source image despite being perceptually similar to arbitrary images from other classes. We further observe that the source image is linearly connected by a high-confidence path to these inputs, uncovering a star-like structure for level sets of deep networks. Furthermore, we attempt to identify and estimate the extent of these connected higher-dimensional regions over which the model maintains a high degree of confidence. The code for this project is publicly available at https://github.com/SriramB-98/blindspots-neurips-sub

Establishing precise traceability between embedded systems datasheets and their corresponding code implementations remains a fundamental challenge in systems engineering, particularly for low-level software where manual mapping between specification documents and large code repositories is infeasible. Existing Traceability Link Recovery approaches primarily rely on lexical similarity and information retrieval techniques, which struggle to capture the semantic, structural, and symbol level relationships prevalent in embedded systems software. We present a hierarchical datasheet-to-code mapping methodology that employs large language models for semantic analysis while explicitly structuring the traceability process across multiple abstraction levels. Rather than performing direct specification-to-code matching, the proposed approach progressively narrows the search space through repository-level structure inference, file-level relevance estimation, and fine-grained symbollevel alignment. The method extends beyond function-centric mapping by explicitly covering macros, structs, constants, configuration parameters, and register definitions commonly found in systems-level C/C++ codebases. We evaluate the approach on multiple open-source embedded systems repositories using manually curated datasheet-to-code ground truth. Experimental results show substantial improvements over traditional information-retrieval-based baselines, achieving up to 73.3% file mapping accuracy. We significantly reduce computational overhead, lowering total LLM token consumption by 84% and end-to-end runtime by approximately 80%. This methodology supports automated analysis of large embedded software systems and enables downstream applications such as training data generation for systems-aware machine learning models, standards compliance verification, and large-scale specification coverage analysis.

Autonomous agents, especially delegated systems with memory, persistent context, and multi-step planning, pose a measurement problem not present in stateless models: an agent that preserves continued operation as a terminal objective and one that does so merely instrumentally can produce observationally similar trajectories. External behavioral monitoring cannot reliably distinguish between them. We introduce the Unified Continuation-Interest Protocol (UCIP), a multi-criterion detection framework that moves this distinction from behavior to the latent structure of agent trajectories. UCIP encodes trajectories with a Quantum Boltzmann Machine (QBM), a classical algorithm based on the density-matrix formalism of quantum statistical mechanics, and measures the von Neumann entropy of the reduced density matrix induced by a bipartition of hidden units. We test whether agents with terminal continuation objectives (Type A) produce latent states with higher entanglement entropy than agents whose continuation is merely instrumental (Type B). Higher entanglement reflects stronger cross-partition statistical coupling. On gridworld agents with known ground-truth objectives, UCIP achieves 100% detection accuracy and 1.0 AUC-ROC on held-out non-adversarial evaluation under the frozen Phase I gate. The entanglement gap between Type A and Type B agents is Delta = 0.381 (p < 0.001, permutation test). Pearson r = 0.934 across an 11-point interpolation sweep indicates that, within this synthetic family, UCIP tracks graded changes in continuation weighting rather than merely a binary label. Among the tested models, only the QBM achieves positive Delta. All computations are classical; "quantum" refers only to the mathematical formalism. UCIP does not detect consciousness or subjective experience; it detects statistical structure in latent representations that correlates with known objectives.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

Transformers are a class of autoregressive deep learning architectures which have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in various vision, language, and robotics tasks. We revisit the problem of Kalman Filtering in linear dynamical systems and show that Transformers can approximate the Kalman Filter in a strong sense. Specifically, for any observable LTI system we construct an explicit causally-masked Transformer which implements the Kalman Filter, up to a small additive error which is bounded uniformly in time; we call our construction the Transformer Filter. Our construction is based on a two-step reduction. We first show that a softmax self-attention block can exactly represent a Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing estimator with a Gaussian kernel. We then show that this estimator closely approximates the Kalman Filter. We also investigate how the Transformer Filter can be used for measurement-feedback control and prove that the resulting nonlinear controllers closely approximate the performance of standard optimal control policies such as the LQG controller.

Contextual hallucinations -- statements unsupported by given context -- remain a significant challenge in AI. We demonstrate a practical interpretability insight: a generator-agnostic observer model detects hallucinations via a single forward pass and a linear probe on its residual stream. This probe isolates a single, transferable linear direction separating hallucinated from faithful text, outperforming baselines by 5-27 points and showing robust mid-layer performance across Gemma-2 models (2B to 27B). Gradient-times-activation localises this signal to sparse, late-layer MLP activity. Critically, manipulating this direction causally steers generator hallucination rates, proving its actionability. Our results offer novel evidence of internal, low-dimensional hallucination tracking linked to specific MLP sub-circuits, exploitable for detection and mitigation. We release the 2000-example ContraTales benchmark for realistic assessment of such solutions.

We present a technique for translating a black-box machine-learned classifier operating on a high-dimensional input space into a small set of human-interpretable observables that can be combined to make the same classification decisions. We iteratively select these observables from a large space of high-level discriminants by finding those with the highest decision similarity relative to the black box, quantified via a metric we introduce that evaluates the relative ordering of pairs of inputs. Successive iterations focus only on the subset of input pairs that are misordered by the current set of observables. This method enables simplification of the machine-learning strategy, interpretation of the results in terms of well-understood physical concepts, validation of the physical model, and the potential for new insights into the nature of the problem itself. As a demonstration, we apply our approach to the benchmark task of jet classification in collider physics, where a convolutional neural network acting on calorimeter jet images outperforms a set of six well-known jet substructure observables. Our method maps the convolutional neural network into a set of observables called energy flow polynomials, and it closes the performance gap by identifying a class of observables with an interesting physical interpretation that has been previously overlooked in the jet substructure literature.

Physical adversarial examples for camera-based computer vision have so far been achieved through visible artifacts -- a sticker on a Stop sign, colorful borders around eyeglasses or a 3D printed object with a colorful texture. An implicit assumption here is that the perturbations must be visible so that a camera can sense them. By contrast, we contribute a procedure to generate, for the first time, physical adversarial examples that are invisible to human eyes. Rather than modifying the victim object with visible artifacts, we modify light that illuminates the object. We demonstrate how an attacker can craft a modulated light signal that adversarially illuminates a scene and causes targeted misclassifications on a state-of-the-art ImageNet deep learning model. Concretely, we exploit the radiometric rolling shutter effect in commodity cameras to create precise striping patterns that appear on images. To human eyes, it appears like the object is illuminated, but the camera creates an image with stripes that will cause ML models to output the attacker-desired classification. We conduct a range of simulation and physical experiments with LEDs, demonstrating targeted attack rates up to 84%.

We study the autonomous exploration (AX) problem proposed by Lim & Auer (2012). In this setting, the objective is to discover a set of epsilon-optimal policies reaching a set S_L^{rightarrow} of incrementally L-controllable states. We introduce a novel layered decomposition of the set of incrementally L-controllable states that is based on the iterative application of a state-expansion operator. We leverage these results to design Layered Autonomous Exploration (LAE), a novel algorithm for AX that attains a sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)}Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} A ln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)})/epsilon^2), where S^{rightarrow}_{L(1+epsilon)} is the number of states that are incrementally L(1+epsilon)-controllable, A is the number of actions, and Gamma_{L(1+epsilon)} is the branching factor of the transitions over such states. LAE improves over the algorithm of Tarbouriech et al. (2020a) by a factor of L^2 and it is the first algorithm for AX that works in a countably-infinite state space. Moreover, we show that, under a certain identifiability assumption, LAE achieves minimax-optimal sample complexity of mathcal{O}(LS^{rightarrow}_{L}Aln^{12}(S^{rightarrow}_{L})/epsilon^2), outperforming existing algorithms and matching for the first time the lower bound proved by Cai et al. (2022) up to logarithmic factors.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are powerful but remain opaque black boxes. We introduce the first framework for transparent circuit tracing in VLMs to systematically analyze multimodal reasoning. By utilizing transcoders, attribution graphs, and attention-based methods, we uncover how VLMs hierarchically integrate visual and semantic concepts. We reveal that distinct visual feature circuits can handle mathematical reasoning and support cross-modal associations. Validated through feature steering and circuit patching, our framework proves these circuits are causal and controllable, laying the groundwork for more explainable and reliable VLMs.

Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

Kalman filter (KF) based methods for multi-object tracking (MOT) make an assumption that objects move linearly. While this assumption is acceptable for very short periods of occlusion, linear estimates of motion for prolonged time can be highly inaccurate. Moreover, when there is no measurement available to update Kalman filter parameters, the standard convention is to trust the priori state estimations for posteriori update. This leads to the accumulation of errors during a period of occlusion. The error causes significant motion direction variance in practice. In this work, we show that a basic Kalman filter can still obtain state-of-the-art tracking performance if proper care is taken to fix the noise accumulated during occlusion. Instead of relying only on the linear state estimate (i.e., estimation-centric approach), we use object observations (i.e., the measurements by object detector) to compute a virtual trajectory over the occlusion period to fix the error accumulation of filter parameters during the occlusion period. This allows more time steps to correct errors accumulated during occlusion. We name our method Observation-Centric SORT (OC-SORT). It remains Simple, Online, and Real-Time but improves robustness during occlusion and non-linear motion. Given off-the-shelf detections as input, OC-SORT runs at 700+ FPS on a single CPU. It achieves state-of-the-art on multiple datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, KITTI, head tracking, and especially DanceTrack where the object motion is highly non-linear. The code and models are available at https://github.com/noahcao/OC_SORT.

In latent diffusion models, the autoencoder (AE) is typically expected to balance two capabilities: faithful reconstruction and a generation-friendly latent space (e.g., low gFID). In recent ImageNet-scale AE studies, we observe a systematic bias toward generative metrics in handling this trade-off: reconstruction metrics are increasingly under-reported, and ablation-based AE selection often favors the best-gFID configuration even when reconstruction fidelity degrades. We theoretically analyze why this gFID-dominant preference can appear unproblematic for ImageNet generation, yet becomes risky when scaling to controllable diffusion: AEs can induce condition drift, which limits achievable condition alignment. Meanwhile, we find that reconstruction fidelity, especially instance-level measures, better indicates controllability. We empirically validate the impact of tilted autoencoder evaluation on controllability by studying several recent ImageNet AEs. Using a multi-dimensional condition-drift evaluation protocol reflecting controllable generation tasks, we find that gFID is only weakly predictive of condition preservation, whereas reconstruction-oriented metrics are substantially more aligned. ControlNet experiments further confirm that controllability tracks condition preservation rather than gFID. Overall, our results expose a gap between ImageNet-centric AE evaluation and the requirements of scalable controllable diffusion, offering practical guidance for more reliable benchmarking and model selection.

Current paradigms for code verification rely heavily on external mechanisms-such as execution-based unit tests or auxiliary LLM judges-which are often labor-intensive or limited by the judging model's own capabilities. This raises a fundamental, yet unexplored question: Can an LLM's functional correctness be assessed purely from its internal computational structure? Our primary objective is to investigate whether the model's neural dynamics encode internally decodable signals that are predictive of logical validity during code generation. Inspired by mechanistic interpretability, we propose to treat code verification as a mechanistic diagnostic task, mapping the model's explicit algorithmic trajectory into line-level attribution graphs. By decomposing complex residual flows, we aim to identify the structural signatures that distinguish sound reasoning from logical failure within the model's internal circuits. Analysis across Python, C++, and Java confirms that intrinsic correctness signals are robust across diverse syntaxes. Topological features from these internal graphs predict correctness more reliably than surface heuristics and enable targeted causal interventions to fix erroneous logic. These findings establish internal introspection as a decodable property for verifying generated code. Our code is at https:// github.com/bruno686/CodeCircuit.

We consider online learning problems under a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition to its own loss, the learner also gets to observe losses of some other actions. The revealed losses depend on the learner's action and a directed observation system chosen by the environment. For this setting, we propose the first algorithm that enjoys near-optimal regret guarantees without having to know the observation system before selecting its actions. Along similar lines, we also define a new partial information setting that models online combinatorial optimization problems where the feedback received by the learner is between semi-bandit and full feedback. As the predictions of our first algorithm cannot be always computed efficiently in this setting, we propose another algorithm with similar properties and with the benefit of always being computationally efficient, at the price of a slightly more complicated tuning mechanism. Both algorithms rely on a novel exploration strategy called implicit exploration, which is shown to be more efficient both computationally and information-theoretically than previously studied exploration strategies for the problem.

This technical report describes the Time Series Optimized Transformer for Observability (Toto), a new state of the art foundation model for time series forecasting developed by Datadog. In addition to advancing the state of the art on generalized time series benchmarks in domains such as electricity and weather, this model is the first general-purpose time series forecasting foundation model to be specifically tuned for observability metrics. Toto was trained on a dataset of one trillion time series data points, the largest among all currently published time series foundation models. Alongside publicly available time series datasets, 75% of the data used to train Toto consists of fully anonymous numerical metric data points from the Datadog platform. In our experiments, Toto outperforms existing time series foundation models on observability data. It does this while also excelling at general-purpose forecasting tasks, achieving state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on multiple open benchmark datasets.

Recognizing and reasoning about occluded (partially or fully hidden) objects is vital to understanding visual scenes, as occlusions frequently occur in real-world environments and act as obstacles for spatial comprehension. To test models' ability to reason about multiple occluded objects, we introduce a novel task, Counting Amodally for Patterns Through Unseen REgions (CAPTURe), which requires a model to count objects arranged in a pattern by inferring how the pattern continues behind an occluder (an object which blocks parts of the scene). CAPTURe requires both recognizing visual patterns and reasoning, making it a useful testbed for evaluating vision-language models (VLMs) on whether they understand occluded patterns and possess spatial understanding skills. By requiring models to reason about occluded objects, CAPTURe also tests VLMs' ability to form world models that would allow them to fill in missing information. CAPTURe consists of two parts: (1) CAPTURe-real, with manually filtered images of real objects in patterns and (2) CAPTURe-synthetic, a controlled diagnostic with generated patterned images. We evaluate four strong VLMs (GPT-4o, Intern-VL2, Molmo, and Qwen2-VL) on CAPTURe, finding that models struggle to count on both occluded and unoccluded patterns. Crucially, we find that models perform worse with occlusion, suggesting that VLMs are also deficient in inferring unseen spatial relationships: even the strongest VLMs like GPT-4o fail to count with occlusion. In contrast, we find that humans achieve very little error on CAPTURe. We also find that providing auxiliary information of occluded object locations increases performance, underscoring that the model error comes both from an inability to handle occlusion as well as difficulty counting in images.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved widespread adoption, yet our understanding of their behavior remains limited, particularly in detecting data contamination and hallucinations. While recently proposed probing techniques provide insights through activation analysis, they require "white-box" access to model internals, often unavailable. Current "gray-box" approaches typically analyze only the probability of the actual tokens in the sequence with simple task-specific heuristics. Importantly, these methods overlook the rich information contained in the full token distribution at each processing step. To address these limitations, we propose that gray-box analysis should leverage the complete observable output of LLMs, consisting of both the previously used token probabilities as well as the complete token distribution sequences - a unified data type we term LOS (LLM Output Signature). To this end, we develop a transformer-based approach to process LOS that theoretically guarantees approximation of existing techniques while enabling more nuanced analysis. Our approach achieves superior performance on hallucination and data contamination detection in gray-box settings, significantly outperforming existing baselines. Furthermore, it demonstrates strong transfer capabilities across datasets and LLMs, suggesting that LOS captures fundamental patterns in LLM behavior. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BarSGuy/LLM-Output-Signatures-Network.

Whenever we use devices to take measurements, calibration is indispensable. While the purpose of calibration is to reduce bias and uncertainty in the measurements, it can be quite difficult, expensive, and sometimes even impossible to implement. We study a challenging problem called self-calibration, i.e., the task of designing an algorithm for devices so that the algorithm is able to perform calibration automatically. More precisely, we consider the setup y = A(d) x + epsilon where only partial information about the sensing matrix A(d) is known and where A(d) linearly depends on d. The goal is to estimate the calibration parameter d (resolve the uncertainty in the sensing process) and the signal/object of interests x simultaneously. For three different models of practical relevance, we show how such a bilinear inverse problem, including blind deconvolution as an important example, can be solved via a simple linear least squares approach. As a consequence, the proposed algorithms are numerically extremely efficient, thus potentially allowing for real-time deployment. We also present a variation of the least squares approach, which leads to a~spectral method, where the solution to the bilinear inverse problem can be found by computing the singular vector associated with the smallest singular value of a certain matrix derived from the bilinear system. Explicit theoretical guarantees and stability theory are derived for both techniques; and the number of sampling complexity is nearly optimal (up to a poly-log factor). Applications in imaging sciences and signal processing are discussed and numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach.

Causal disentanglement seeks a representation of data involving latent variables that relate to one another via a causal model. A representation is identifiable if both the latent model and the transformation from latent to observed variables are unique. In this paper, we study observed variables that are a linear transformation of a linear latent causal model. Data from interventions are necessary for identifiability: if one latent variable is missing an intervention, we show that there exist distinct models that cannot be distinguished. Conversely, we show that a single intervention on each latent variable is sufficient for identifiability. Our proof uses a generalization of the RQ decomposition of a matrix that replaces the usual orthogonal and upper triangular conditions with analogues depending on a partial order on the rows of the matrix, with partial order determined by a latent causal model. We corroborate our theoretical results with a method for causal disentanglement that accurately recovers a latent causal model.

AI generative models leave implicit traces in their generated images, which are commonly referred to as model fingerprints and are exploited for source attribution. Prior methods rely on model-specific cues or synthesis artifacts, yielding limited fingerprints that may generalize poorly across different generative models. We argue that a complete model fingerprint should reflect the causality between image provenance and model traces, a direction largely unexplored. To this end, we conceptualize the causal fingerprint of generative models, and propose a causality-decoupling framework that disentangles it from image-specific content and style in a semantic-invariant latent space derived from pre-trained diffusion reconstruction residual. We further enhance fingerprint granularity with diverse feature representations. We validate causality by assessing attribution performance across representative GANs and diffusion models and by achieving source anonymization using counterfactual examples generated from causal fingerprints. Experiments show our approach outperforms existing methods in model attribution, indicating strong potential for forgery detection, model copyright tracing, and identity protection.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Language models of code (LMs) work well when the surrounding code in the vicinity of generation provides sufficient context. This is not true when it becomes necessary to use types or functionality defined in another module or library, especially those not seen during training. LMs suffer from limited awareness of such global context and end up hallucinating, e.g., using types defined in other files incorrectly. Recent work tries to overcome this issue by retrieving global information to augment the local context. However, this bloats the prompt or requires architecture modifications and additional training. Integrated development environments (IDEs) assist developers by bringing the global context at their fingertips using static analysis. We extend this assistance, enjoyed by developers, to the LMs. We propose a notion of monitors that use static analysis in the background to guide the decoding. Unlike a priori retrieval, static analysis is invoked iteratively during the entire decoding process, providing the most relevant suggestions on demand. We demonstrate the usefulness of our proposal by monitoring for type-consistent use of identifiers whenever an LM generates code for object dereference. To evaluate our approach, we curate PragmaticCode, a dataset of open-source projects with their development environments. On models of varying parameter scale, we show that monitor-guided decoding consistently improves the ability of an LM to not only generate identifiers that match the ground truth but also improves compilation rates and agreement with ground truth. We find that LMs with fewer parameters, when guided with our monitor, can outperform larger LMs. With monitor-guided decoding, SantaCoder-1.1B achieves better compilation rate and next-identifier match than the much larger text-davinci-003 model. The datasets and code will be released at https://aka.ms/monitors4codegen .

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

A promising class of generative models maps points from a simple distribution to a complex distribution through an invertible neural network. Likelihood-based training of these models requires restricting their architectures to allow cheap computation of Jacobian determinants. Alternatively, the Jacobian trace can be used if the transformation is specified by an ordinary differential equation. In this paper, we use Hutchinson's trace estimator to give a scalable unbiased estimate of the log-density. The result is a continuous-time invertible generative model with unbiased density estimation and one-pass sampling, while allowing unrestricted neural network architectures. We demonstrate our approach on high-dimensional density estimation, image generation, and variational inference, achieving the state-of-the-art among exact likelihood methods with efficient sampling.

Code agents are advancing rapidly, but debugging them is becoming increasingly difficult. As frameworks orchestrate parallel tool calls and multi-stage workflows over complex tasks, making the agent's state transitions and error propagation hard to observe. In these runs, an early misstep can trap the agent in unproductive loops or even cascade into fundamental errors, forming hidden error chains that make it hard to tell when the agent goes off track and why. Existing agent tracing analyses either focus on simple interaction or rely on small-scale manual inspection, which limits their scalability and usefulness for real coding workflows. We present CodeTracer, a tracing architecture that parses heterogeneous run artifacts through evolving extractors, reconstructs the full state transition history as a hierarchical trace tree with persistent memory, and performs failure onset localization to pinpoint the failure origin and its downstream chain. To enable systematic evaluation, we construct CodeTraceBench from a large collection of executed trajectories generated by four widely used code agent frameworks on diverse code tasks (e.g., bug fixing, refactoring, and terminal interaction), with supervision at both the stage and step levels for failure localization. Experiments show that CodeTracer substantially outperforms direct prompting and lightweight baselines, and that replaying its diagnostic signals consistently recovers originally failed runs under matched budgets. Our code and data are publicly available.

For robotic agents operating in dynamic environments, learning visual state representations from streaming video observations is essential for sequential decision making. Recent self-supervised learning methods have shown strong transferability across vision tasks, but they do not explicitly address what a good visual state should encode. We argue that effective visual states must capture what-is-where by jointly encoding the semantic identities of scene elements and their spatial locations, enabling reliable detection of subtle dynamics across observations. To this end, we propose CroBo, a visual state representation learning framework based on a global-to-local reconstruction objective. Given a reference observation compressed into a compact bottleneck token, CroBo learns to reconstruct heavily masked patches in a local target crop from sparse visible cues, using the global bottleneck token as context. This learning objective encourages the bottleneck token to encode a fine-grained representation of scene-wide semantic entities, including their identities, spatial locations, and configurations. As a result, the learned visual states reveal how scene elements move and interact over time, supporting sequential decision making. We evaluate CroBo on diverse vision-based robot policy learning benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Reconstruction analyses and perceptual straightness experiments further show that the learned representations preserve pixel-level scene composition and encode what-moves-where across observations. Project page available at: https://seokminlee-chris.github.io/CroBo-ProjectPage.

We present a polynomial-time classical algorithm for estimating expectation values of arbitrary observables on typical quantum circuits under any incoherent local noise, including non-unital or dephasing. Although previous research demonstrated that some carefully designed quantum circuits affected by non-unital noise cannot be efficiently simulated, we show that this does not apply to average-case circuits, as these can be efficiently simulated using Pauli-path methods. Specifically, we prove that, with high probability over the circuit gates choice, Pauli propagation algorithms with tailored truncation strategies achieve an inversely polynomially small simulation error. This result holds for arbitrary circuit topologies and for any local noise, under the assumption that the distribution of each circuit layer is invariant under single-qubit random gates. Under the same minimal assumptions, we also prove that most noisy circuits can be truncated to an effective logarithmic depth for the task of {estimating} expectation values of observables, thus generalizing prior results to a significantly broader class of circuit ensembles. We further numerically validate our algorithm with simulations on a 6times6 lattice of qubits under the effects of amplitude damping and dephasing noise, as well as real-time dynamics on an 11times11 lattice of qubits affected by amplitude damping.

Quantifying exhaled CO2 from free-roaming cattle is both a direct indicator of rumen metabolic state and a prerequisite for farm-scale carbon accounting, yet no existing system can deliver continuous, spatially resolved measurements without physical confinement or contact. We present TRACE (Thermal Recognition Attentive-Framework for CO2 Emissions from Livestock), the first unified framework to jointly address per-frame CO2 plume segmentation and clip-level emission flux classification from mid-wave infrared (MWIR) thermal video. TRACE contributes three domain-specific advances: a Thermal Gas-Aware Attention (TGAA) encoder that incorporates per-pixel gas intensity as a spatial supervisory signal to direct self-attention toward high-emission regions at each encoder stage; an Attention-based Temporal Fusion (ATF) module that captures breath-cycle dynamics through structured cross-frame attention for sequence-level flux classification; and a four-stage progressive training curriculum that couples both objectives while preventing gradient interference. Benchmarked against fifteen state-of-the-art models on the CO2 Farm Thermal Gas Dataset, TRACE achieves an mIoU of 0.998 and the best result on every segmentation and classification metric simultaneously, outperforming domain-specific gas segmenters with several times more parameters and surpassing all baselines in flux classification. Ablation studies confirm that each component is individually essential: gas-conditioned attention alone determines precise plume boundary localization, and temporal reasoning is indispensable for flux-level discrimination. TRACE establishes a practical path toward non-invasive, continuous, per-animal CO2 monitoring from overhead thermal cameras at commercial scale. Codes are available at https://github.com/taminulislam/trace.

Agentic AI systems act through tools and evolve their behavior over long, stochastic interaction traces. This setting complicates assurance, because behavior depends on nondeterministic environments and probabilistic model outputs. Prior work introduced runtime verification for agentic AI via Dynamic Probabilistic Assurance (DPA), learning an MDP online and model checking quantitative properties. A key limitation is that developers must manually define the state abstraction, which couples verification to application-specific heuristics and increases adoption friction. This paper proposes TriCEGAR, a trace-driven abstraction mechanism that automates state construction from execution logs and supports online construction of an agent behavioral MDP. TriCEGAR represents abstractions as predicate trees learned from traces and refined using counterexamples. We describe a framework-native implementation that (i) captures typed agent lifecycle events, (ii) builds abstractions from traces, (iii) constructs an MDP, and (iv) performs probabilistic model checking to compute bounds such as Pmax(success) and Pmin(failure). We also show how run likelihoods enable anomaly detection as a guardrailing signal.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Object detectors achieve strong performance under nominal imaging conditions but can fail silently when exposed to blur, noise, compression, adverse weather, or resolution changes. In safety-critical settings, it is therefore insufficient to produce predictions without assessing whether the input remains within the detector's nominal operating regime. We refer to this capability as self-aware object detection. We introduce a degradation-aware self-awareness framework based on degradation manifolds, which explicitly structure a detector's feature space according to image degradation rather than semantic content. Our method augments a standard detection backbone with a lightweight embedding head trained via multi-layer contrastive learning. Images sharing the same degradation composition are pulled together, while differing degradation configurations are pushed apart, yielding a geometrically organized representation that captures degradation type and severity without requiring degradation labels or explicit density modeling. To anchor the learned geometry, we estimate a pristine prototype from clean training embeddings, defining a nominal operating point in representation space. Self-awareness emerges as geometric deviation from this reference, providing an intrinsic, image-level signal of degradation-induced shift that is independent of detection confidence. Extensive experiments on synthetic corruption benchmarks, cross-dataset zero-shot transfer, and natural weather-induced distribution shifts demonstrate strong pristine-degraded separability, consistent behavior across multiple detector architectures, and robust generalization under semantic shift. These results suggest that degradation-aware representation geometry provides a practical and detector-agnostic foundation.

In this paper we present TruFor, a forensic framework that can be applied to a large variety of image manipulation methods, from classic cheapfakes to more recent manipulations based on deep learning. We rely on the extraction of both high-level and low-level traces through a transformer-based fusion architecture that combines the RGB image and a learned noise-sensitive fingerprint. The latter learns to embed the artifacts related to the camera internal and external processing by training only on real data in a self-supervised manner. Forgeries are detected as deviations from the expected regular pattern that characterizes each pristine image. Looking for anomalies makes the approach able to robustly detect a variety of local manipulations, ensuring generalization. In addition to a pixel-level localization map and a whole-image integrity score, our approach outputs a reliability map that highlights areas where localization predictions may be error-prone. This is particularly important in forensic applications in order to reduce false alarms and allow for a large scale analysis. Extensive experiments on several datasets show that our method is able to reliably detect and localize both cheapfakes and deepfakes manipulations outperforming state-of-the-art works. Code is publicly available at https://grip-unina.github.io/TruFor/

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we take the role of investigators who want to trace the attack and identify the source, that is, the particular model which the adversarial examples are generated from. Techniques derived would aid forensic investigation of attack incidents and serve as deterrence to potential attacks. We consider the buyers-seller setting where a machine learning model is to be distributed to various buyers and each buyer receives a slightly different copy with same functionality. A malicious buyer generates adversarial examples from a particular copy M_i and uses them to attack other copies. From these adversarial examples, the investigator wants to identify the source M_i. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage separate-and-trace framework. The model separation stage generates multiple copies of a model for a same classification task. This process injects unique characteristics into each copy so that adversarial examples generated have distinct and traceable features. We give a parallel structure which embeds a ``tracer'' in each copy, and a noise-sensitive training loss to achieve this goal. The tracing stage takes in adversarial examples and a few candidate models, and identifies the likely source. Based on the unique features induced by the noise-sensitive loss function, we could effectively trace the potential adversarial copy by considering the output logits from each tracer. Empirical results show that it is possible to trace the origin of the adversarial example and the mechanism can be applied to a wide range of architectures and datasets.

Tracking a point through a video can be a challenging task due to uncertainty arising from visual obfuscations, such as appearance changes and occlusions. Although current state-of-the-art discriminative models excel in regressing long-term point trajectory estimates -- even through occlusions -- they are limited to regressing to a mean (or mode) in the presence of uncertainty, and fail to capture multi-modality. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Generative Point Tracker (GenPT), a generative framework for modelling multi-modal trajectories. GenPT is trained with a novel flow matching formulation that combines the iterative refinement of discriminative trackers, a window-dependent prior for cross-window consistency, and a variance schedule tuned specifically for point coordinates. We show how our model's generative capabilities can be leveraged to improve point trajectory estimates by utilizing a best-first search strategy on generated samples during inference, guided by the model's own confidence of its predictions. Empirically, we evaluate GenPT against the current state of the art on the standard PointOdyssey, Dynamic Replica, and TAP-Vid benchmarks. Further, we introduce a TAP-Vid variant with additional occlusions to assess occluded point tracking performance and highlight our model's ability to capture multi-modality. GenPT is capable of capturing the multi-modality in point trajectories, which translates to state-of-the-art tracking accuracy on occluded points, while maintaining competitive tracking accuracy on visible points compared to extant discriminative point trackers.

Recent advances in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on numerous benchmark tasks. However, the use of internet-scale, often proprietary, pretraining corpora raises a critical concern for both practitioners and users: inflated performance due to test-set leakage. While prior works have proposed mitigation strategies such as decontamination of pretraining data and benchmark redesign for LLMs, the complementary direction of developing detection methods for contaminated VLMs remains underexplored. To address this gap, we deliberately contaminate open-source VLMs on popular benchmarks and show that existing detection approaches either fail outright or exhibit inconsistent behavior. We then propose a novel simple yet effective detection method based on multi-modal semantic perturbation, demonstrating that contaminated models fail to generalize under controlled perturbations. Finally, we validate our approach across multiple realistic contamination strategies, confirming its robustness and effectiveness. The code and perturbed dataset will be released publicly.

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

Digital cameras transform sensor RAW readings into RGB images by means of their Image Signal Processor (ISP). Computational photography tasks such as image denoising and colour constancy are commonly performed in the RAW domain, in part due to the inherent hardware design, but also due to the appealing simplicity of noise statistics that result from the direct sensor readings. Despite this, the availability of RAW images is limited in comparison with the abundance and diversity of available RGB data. Recent approaches have attempted to bridge this gap by estimating the RGB to RAW mapping: handcrafted model-based methods that are interpretable and controllable usually require manual parameter fine-tuning, while end-to-end learnable neural networks require large amounts of training data, at times with complex training procedures, and generally lack interpretability and parametric control. Towards addressing these existing limitations, we present a novel hybrid model-based and data-driven ISP that builds on canonical ISP operations and is both learnable and interpretable. Our proposed invertible model, capable of bidirectional mapping between RAW and RGB domains, employs end-to-end learning of rich parameter representations, i.e. dictionaries, that are free from direct parametric supervision and additionally enable simple and plausible data augmentation. We evidence the value of our data generation process by extensive experiments under both RAW image reconstruction and RAW image denoising tasks, obtaining state-of-the-art performance in both. Additionally, we show that our ISP can learn meaningful mappings from few data samples, and that denoising models trained with our dictionary-based data augmentation are competitive despite having only few or zero ground-truth labels.

Near out-of-distribution detection (OODD) aims at discriminating semantically similar data points without the supervision required for classification. This paper puts forward an OODD use case for radar targets detection extensible to other kinds of sensors and detection scenarios. We emphasize the relevance of OODD and its specific supervision requirements for the detection of a multimodal, diverse targets class among other similar radar targets and clutter in real-life critical systems. We propose a comparison of deep and non-deep OODD methods on simulated low-resolution pulse radar micro-Doppler signatures, considering both a spectral and a covariance matrix input representation. The covariance representation aims at estimating whether dedicated second-order processing is appropriate to discriminate signatures. The potential contributions of labeled anomalies in training, self-supervised learning, contrastive learning insights and innovative training losses are discussed, and the impact of training set contamination caused by mislabelling is investigated.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

A variety of methods have been proposed to try to explain how deep neural networks make their decisions. Key to those approaches is the need to sample the pixel space efficiently in order to derive importance maps. However, it has been shown that the sampling methods used to date introduce biases and other artifacts, leading to inaccurate estimates of the importance of individual pixels and severely limit the reliability of current explainability methods. Unfortunately, the alternative -- to exhaustively sample the image space is computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we introduce EVA (Explaining using Verified perturbation Analysis) -- the first explainability method guarantee to have an exhaustive exploration of a perturbation space. Specifically, we leverage the beneficial properties of verified perturbation analysis -- time efficiency, tractability and guaranteed complete coverage of a manifold -- to efficiently characterize the input variables that are most likely to drive the model decision. We evaluate the approach systematically and demonstrate state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks.

Most existing pre-trained language models for source code focus on learning the static code text, typically augmented with static code structures (abstract syntax tree, dependency graphs, etc.). However, program semantics will not be fully exposed before the real execution. Without an understanding of the program execution, statically pre-trained models fail to comprehensively capture the dynamic code properties, such as the branch coverage and the runtime variable values, and they are consequently less effective at code understanding tasks, such as retrieving semantic clones and detecting software vulnerabilities. To close the gap between the static nature of language models and the dynamic characteristics of programs, we introduce TRACED, an execution-aware pre-training strategy for source code. Specifically, we pre-train code language models with a combination of source code, executable inputs, and corresponding execution traces. Our goal is to teach code models the complicated execution logic during the pre-training, enabling the model to statically estimate the dynamic code properties without repeatedly executing code during task-specific fine-tuning. To illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we fine-tune and evaluate TRACED on three downstream tasks: static execution estimation, clone retrieval, and vulnerability detection. The empirical results show that TRACED relatively improves the statically pre-trained code models by 12.4% for complete execution path prediction and by 25.2% for runtime variable value predictions. TRACED also significantly outperforms statically pre-trained models in clone retrieval and vulnerability detection across four public benchmarks.

Extracting optical flow from videos remains a core computer vision problem. Motivated by the success of large general-purpose models, we ask whether frozen self-supervised video models trained only for future frame prediction can be prompted, without fine-tuning, to output flow. Prior work reading out depth or illumination from video generators required fine-tuning, which is impractical for flow where labels are scarce and synthetic datasets suffer from a sim-to-real gap. Inspired by the Counterfactual World Model (CWM) paradigm, which can obtain point-wise correspondences by injecting a small tracer perturbation into a next-frame predictor and tracking its propagation, we extend this idea to generative video models. We explore several popular architectures and find that successful zero-shot flow extraction in this manner is aided by three model properties: (1) distributional prediction of future frames (avoiding blurry or noisy outputs); (2) factorized latents that treat each spatio-temporal patch independently; and (3) random-access decoding that can condition on any subset of future pixels. These properties are uniquely present in the recent Local Random Access Sequence (LRAS) architecture. Building on LRAS, we propose KL-tracing: a novel test-time procedure that injects a localized perturbation into the first frame, rolls out the model one step, and computes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between perturbed and unperturbed predictive distributions. Without any flow-specific fine-tuning, our method outperforms state-of-the-art models on real-world TAP-Vid DAVIS dataset (16.6% relative improvement for endpoint error) and synthetic TAP-Vid Kubric (4.7% relative improvement). Our results indicate that counterfactual prompting of controllable generative video models is a scalable and effective alternative to supervised or photometric-loss approaches for high-quality flow.

Inverse path tracing has recently been applied to joint material and lighting estimation, given geometry and multi-view HDR observations of an indoor scene. However, it has two major limitations: path tracing is expensive to compute, and ambiguities exist between reflection and emission. Our Factorized Inverse Path Tracing (FIPT) addresses these challenges by using a factored light transport formulation and finds emitters driven by rendering errors. Our algorithm enables accurate material and lighting optimization faster than previous work, and is more effective at resolving ambiguities. The exhaustive experiments on synthetic scenes show that our method (1) outperforms state-of-the-art indoor inverse rendering and relighting methods particularly in the presence of complex illumination effects; (2) speeds up inverse path tracing optimization to less than an hour. We further demonstrate robustness to noisy inputs through material and lighting estimates that allow plausible relighting in a real scene. The source code is available at: https://github.com/lwwu2/fipt

Object detection systems must reliably perceive objects of interest without being overly confident to ensure safe decision-making in dynamic environments. Filtering techniques based on out-of-distribution (OoD) detection are commonly added as an extra safeguard to filter hallucinations caused by overconfidence in novel objects. Nevertheless, evaluating YOLO-family detectors and their filters under existing OoD benchmarks often leads to unsatisfactory performance. This paper studies the underlying reasons for performance bottlenecks and proposes a methodology to improve performance fundamentally. Our first contribution is a calibration of all existing evaluation results: Although images in existing OoD benchmark datasets are claimed not to have objects within in-distribution (ID) classes (i.e., categories defined in the training dataset), around 13% of objects detected by the object detector are actually ID objects. Dually, the ID dataset containing OoD objects can also negatively impact the decision boundary of filters. These ultimately lead to a significantly imprecise performance estimation. Our second contribution is to consider the task of hallucination reduction as a joint pipeline of detectors and filters. By developing a methodology to carefully synthesize an OoD dataset that semantically resembles the objects to be detected, and using the crafted OoD dataset in the fine-tuning of YOLO detectors to suppress the objectness score, we achieve a 88% reduction in overall hallucination error with a combined fine-tuned detection and filtering system on the self-driving benchmark BDD-100K. Our code and dataset are available at: https://gricad-gitlab.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/dnn-safety/m-hood.

Video understanding requires models to continuously track and update world state during playback. While existing benchmarks have advanced video understanding evaluation across multiple dimensions, the observation of how models maintain world state remains insufficient. We propose VCBench, a streaming counting benchmark that repositions counting as a minimal probe for diagnosing world state maintenance capability. We decompose this capability into object counting and event counting, forming 8 fine-grained subcategories. Object counting covers tracking currently visible objects and cumulative unique identities, while event counting covers detecting instantaneous actions and tracking complete activity cycles. VCBench contains 406 videos with frame-by-frame annotations of 10,071 event occurrence moments and object state change moments, generating 1,000 streaming QA pairs with 4,576 query points along timelines. By observing state maintenance trajectories through streaming multi-point queries, we design three complementary metrics to diagnose numerical precision, trajectory consistency, and temporal awareness. Evaluation on mainstream video-language models shows that current models still exhibit significant deficiencies in spatial-temporal state maintenance, particularly struggling with tasks like periodic event counting. VCBench provides a diagnostic framework for measuring and improving state maintenance in video understanding systems. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/buaaplay/VCBench.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Although large vision-language-action (VLA) models pretrained on extensive robot datasets offer promising generalist policies for robotic learning, they still struggle with spatial-temporal dynamics in interactive robotics, making them less effective in handling complex tasks, such as manipulation. In this work, we introduce visual trace prompting, a simple yet effective approach to facilitate VLA models' spatial-temporal awareness for action prediction by encoding state-action trajectories visually. We develop a new TraceVLA model by finetuning OpenVLA on our own collected dataset of 150K robot manipulation trajectories using visual trace prompting. Evaluations of TraceVLA across 137 configurations in SimplerEnv and 4 tasks on a physical WidowX robot demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, outperforming OpenVLA by 10% on SimplerEnv and 3.5x on real-robot tasks and exhibiting robust generalization across diverse embodiments and scenarios. To further validate the effectiveness and generality of our method, we present a compact VLA model based on 4B Phi-3-Vision, pretrained on the Open-X-Embodiment and finetuned on our dataset, rivals the 7B OpenVLA baseline while significantly improving inference efficiency.

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

Real-world objects frequently undergo state transformations. From an apple being cut into pieces to a butterfly emerging from its cocoon, tracking through these changes is important for understanding real-world objects and dynamics. However, existing methods often lose track of the target object after transformation, due to significant changes in object appearance. To address this limitation, we introduce the task of Track Any State: tracking objects through transformations while detecting and describing state changes, accompanied by a new benchmark dataset, VOST-TAS. To tackle this problem, we present TubeletGraph, a zero-shot system that recovers missing objects after transformation and maps out how object states are evolving over time. TubeletGraph first identifies potentially overlooked tracks, and determines whether they should be integrated based on semantic and proximity priors. Then, it reasons about the added tracks and generates a state graph describing each observed transformation. TubeletGraph achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance under transformations, while demonstrating deeper understanding of object transformations and promising capabilities in temporal grounding and semantic reasoning for complex object transformations. Code, additional results, and the benchmark dataset are available at https://tubelet-graph.github.io.

Monitoring is an important aspect of safely deploying Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper examines activation probes for detecting ``high-stakes'' interactions -- where the text indicates that the interaction might lead to significant harm -- as a critical, yet underexplored, target for such monitoring. We evaluate several probe architectures trained on synthetic data, and find them to exhibit robust generalization to diverse, out-of-distribution, real-world data. Probes' performance is comparable to that of prompted or finetuned medium-sized LLM monitors, while offering computational savings of six orders-of-magnitude. These savings are enabled by reusing activations of the model that is being monitored. Our experiments also highlight the potential of building resource-aware hierarchical monitoring systems, where probes serve as an efficient initial filter and flag cases for more expensive downstream analysis. We release our novel synthetic dataset and the codebase at https://github.com/arrrlex/models-under-pressure.

Autonomous agents deployed in the real world need to be robust against adversarial attacks on sensory inputs. Robustifying agent policies requires anticipating the strongest attacks possible. We demonstrate that existing observation-space attacks on reinforcement learning agents have a common weakness: while effective, their lack of temporal consistency makes them detectable using automated means or human inspection. Detectability is undesirable to adversaries as it may trigger security escalations. We introduce perfect illusory attacks, a novel form of adversarial attack on sequential decision-makers that is both effective and provably statistically undetectable. We then propose the more versatile R-attacks, which result in observation transitions that are consistent with the state-transition function of the adversary-free environment and can be learned end-to-end. Compared to existing attacks, we empirically find R-attacks to be significantly harder to detect with automated methods, and a small study with human subjects suggests they are similarly harder to detect for humans. We propose that undetectability should be a central concern in the study of adversarial attacks on mixed-autonomy settings.

The deployment of machine learning models in operational contexts represents a significant investment for any organisation. Consequently, the risk of these models being misappropriated by competitors needs to be addressed. In recent years, numerous proposals have been put forth to detect instances of model stealing. However, these proposals operate under implicit and disparate data and model access assumptions; as a consequence, it remains unclear how they can be effectively compared to one another. Our evaluation shows that a simple baseline that we introduce performs on par with existing state-of-the-art fingerprints, which, on the other hand, are much more complex. To uncover the reasons behind this intriguing result, this paper introduces a systematic approach to both the creation of model fingerprinting schemes and their evaluation benchmarks. By dividing model fingerprinting into three core components -- Query, Representation and Detection (QuRD) -- we are able to identify sim100 previously unexplored QuRD combinations and gain insights into their performance. Finally, we introduce a set of metrics to compare and guide the creation of more representative model stealing detection benchmarks. Our approach reveals the need for more challenging benchmarks and a sound comparison with baselines. To foster the creation of new fingerprinting schemes and benchmarks, we open-source our fingerprinting toolbox.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

Standard LLM benchmarks evaluate the assistant turn: the model generates a response to an input, a verifier scores correctness, and the analysis ends. This paradigm leaves unmeasured whether the LLM encodes any awareness of what follows the assistant response. We propose user-turn generation as a probe of this gap: given a conversation context of user query and assistant response, we let a model generate under the user role. If the model's weights encode interaction awareness, the generated user turn will be a grounded follow-up that reacts to the preceding context. Through experiments across 11 open-weight LLMs (Qwen3.5, gpt-oss, GLM) and 5 datasets (math reasoning, instruction following, conversation), we show that interaction awareness is decoupled from task accuracy. In particular, within the Qwen3.5 family, GSM8K accuracy scales from 41% (0.8B) to 96.8% (397B-A17B), yet genuine follow-up rates under deterministic generation remain near zero. In contrast, higher temperature sampling reveals interaction awareness is latent with follow up rates reaching 22%. Controlled perturbations validate that the proposed probe measures a real property of the model, and collaboration-oriented post-training on Qwen3.5-2B demonstrates an increase in follow-up rates. Our results show that user-turn generation captures a dimension of LLM behavior, interaction awareness, that is unexplored and invisible with current assistant-only benchmarks.

Tracking Any Point (TAP) in a video is a challenging computer vision problem with many demonstrated applications in robotics, video editing, and 3D reconstruction. Existing methods for TAP rely heavily on complex tracking-specific inductive biases and heuristics, limiting their generality and potential for scaling. To address these challenges, we present TAPNext, a new approach that casts TAP as sequential masked token decoding. Our model is causal, tracks in a purely online fashion, and removes tracking-specific inductive biases. This enables TAPNext to run with minimal latency, and removes the temporal windowing required by many existing state of art trackers. Despite its simplicity, TAPNext achieves a new state-of-the-art tracking performance among both online and offline trackers. Finally, we present evidence that many widely used tracking heuristics emerge naturally in TAPNext through end-to-end training.

Causal representation learning has showed a variety of settings in which we can disentangle latent variables with identifiability guarantees (up to some reasonable equivalence class). Common to all of these approaches is the assumption that (1) the latent variables are represented as d-dimensional vectors, and (2) that the observations are the output of some injective generative function of these latent variables. While these assumptions appear benign, we show that when the observations are of multiple objects, the generative function is no longer injective and disentanglement fails in practice. We can address this failure by combining recent developments in object-centric learning and causal representation learning. By modifying the Slot Attention architecture arXiv:2006.15055, we develop an object-centric architecture that leverages weak supervision from sparse perturbations to disentangle each object's properties. This approach is more data-efficient in the sense that it requires significantly fewer perturbations than a comparable approach that encodes to a Euclidean space and we show that this approach successfully disentangles the properties of a set of objects in a series of simple image-based disentanglement experiments.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across a wide array of tasks involving both structured and unstructured textual data. Recent results on various benchmarks for code generation, repair, or completion suggest that certain models have programming abilities comparable to or even surpass humans. In this work, we demonstrate that high performance on such benchmarks does not correlate to humans' innate ability to understand structural control flow in code. To this end, we extract solutions from the HumanEval benchmark, which the relevant models perform strongly on, and trace their execution path using function calls sampled from the respective test set. Using this dataset, we investigate the ability of seven state-of-the-art LLMs to match the execution trace and find that, despite their ability to generate semantically identical code, they possess limited ability to trace execution paths, especially for longer traces and specific control structures. We find that even the top-performing model, Gemini, can fully and correctly generate only 47% of HumanEval task traces. Additionally, we introduce a subset for three key structures not contained in HumanEval: Recursion, Parallel Processing, and Object-Oriented Programming, including concepts like Inheritance and Polymorphism. Besides OOP, we show that none of the investigated models achieve an accuracy over 5% on the relevant traces. Aggregating these specialized parts with HumanEval tasks, we present Benchmark CoCoNUT: Code Control Flow for Navigation Understanding and Testing, which measures a model's ability to trace execution of code upon relevant calls, including advanced structural components. We conclude that current LLMs need significant improvement to enhance code reasoning abilities. We hope our dataset helps researchers bridge this gap.

We address the problem of runtime trajectory anomaly detection, a critical capability for enabling trustworthy LLM agents. Current safety measures predominantly focus on static input/output filtering. However, we argue that ensuring LLM agents reliability requires auditing the intermediate execution process. In this work, we formulate the task of Trajectory Anomaly Detection. The goal is not merely detection, but precise error localization. This capability is essential for enabling efficient rollback-and-retry. To achieve this, we construct TrajBench, a dataset synthesized via a perturb-and-complete strategy to cover diverse procedural anomalies. Using this benchmark, we investigate the capability of models in process supervision. We observe that general-purpose LLMs, even with zero-shot prompting, struggle to identify and localize these anomalies. This reveals that generalized capabilities do not automatically translate to process reliability. To address this, we propose TrajAD, a specialized verifier trained with fine-grained process supervision. Our approach outperforms baselines, demonstrating that specialized supervision is essential for building trustworthy agents.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly integrated into privacy-critical domains, yet existing evaluations of personally identifiable information (PII) leakage largely treat privacy as a static extraction task and ignore how a subject's online presence--the volume of their data available online--influences privacy alignment. We introduce PII-VisBench, a novel benchmark containing 4000 unique probes designed to evaluate VLM safety through the continuum of online presence. The benchmark stratifies 200 subjects into four visibility categories: high, medium, low, and zero--based on the extent and nature of their information available online. We evaluate 18 open-source VLMs (0.3B-32B) based on two key metrics: percentage of PII probing queries refused (Refusal Rate) and the fraction of non-refusal responses flagged for containing PII (Conditional PII Disclosure Rate). Across models, we observe a consistent pattern: refusals increase and PII disclosures decrease (9.10% high to 5.34% low) as subject visibility drops. We identify that models are more likely to disclose PII for high-visibility subjects, alongside substantial model-family heterogeneity and PII-type disparities. Finally, paraphrasing and jailbreak-style prompts expose attack and model-dependent failures, motivating visibility-aware safety evaluation and training interventions.

Regulatory compliance auditing across diverse industrial domains requires heightened quality assurance and traceability. Present manual and intermittent approaches to such auditing yield significant challenges, potentially leading to oversights in the monitoring process. To address these issues, we introduce a real-time, multi-modal sensing system employing 3D time-of-flight and RGB cameras, coupled with unsupervised learning techniques on edge AI devices. This enables continuous object tracking thereby enhancing efficiency in record-keeping and minimizing manual interventions. While we validate the system in a knife sanitization context within agrifood facilities, emphasizing its prowess against occlusion and low-light issues with RGB cameras, its potential spans various industrial monitoring settings.

Tracking objects with persistence in cluttered and dynamic environments remains a difficult challenge for computer vision systems. In this paper, we introduce TCOW, a new benchmark and model for visual tracking through heavy occlusion and containment. We set up a task where the goal is to, given a video sequence, segment both the projected extent of the target object, as well as the surrounding container or occluder whenever one exists. To study this task, we create a mixture of synthetic and annotated real datasets to support both supervised learning and structured evaluation of model performance under various forms of task variation, such as moving or nested containment. We evaluate two recent transformer-based video models and find that while they can be surprisingly capable of tracking targets under certain settings of task variation, there remains a considerable performance gap before we can claim a tracking model to have acquired a true notion of object permanence.

Interpretability research often aims to predict how a model will respond to targeted interventions on specific mechanisms. However, it rarely predicts how a model will respond to unseen input data. This paper explores the promises and challenges of interpretability as a tool for predicting out-of-distribution (OOD) model behavior. Specifically, we investigate the correspondence between attention patterns and OOD generalization in hundreds of Transformer models independently trained on a synthetic classification task. These models exhibit several distinct systematic generalization rules OOD, forming a diverse population for correlational analysis. In this setting, we find that simple observational tools from interpretability can predict OOD performance. In particular, when in-distribution attention exhibits hierarchical patterns, the model is likely to generalize hierarchically on OOD data -- even when the rule's implementation does not rely on these hierarchical patterns, according to ablation tests. Our findings offer a proof-of-concept to motivate further interpretability work on predicting unseen model behavior.

We revisit High-Resolution Range Profile (HRRP) classification with aspect-angle conditioning. While prior work often assumes that aspect-angle information is incomplete during training or unavailable at inference, we study a setting where angles are available for all training samples and explicitly provided to the classifier. Using three datasets and a broad range of conditioning strategies and model architectures, we show that both single-profile and sequential classifiers benefit consistently from aspect-angle awareness, with an average accuracy gain of about 7% and improvements of up to 10%, depending on the model and dataset. In practice, aspect angles are not directly measured and must be estimated. We show that a causal Kalman filter can estimate them online with a median error of 5{\textdegree}, and that training and inference with estimated angles preserves most of the gains, supporting the proposed approach in realistic conditions.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning for code generation have made robust environments essential to prevent reward hacking. As LLMs increasingly serve as evaluators in code-based RL, their ability to detect reward hacking remains understudied. In this paper, we propose a novel taxonomy of reward exploits spanning across 54 categories and introduce TRACE (Testing Reward Anomalies in Code Environments), a synthetically curated and human-verified benchmark containing 517 testing trajectories. Unlike prior work that evaluates reward hack detection in isolated classification scenarios, we contrast these evaluations with a more realistic, contrastive anomaly detection setup on TRACE. Our experiments reveal that models capture reward hacks more effectively in contrastive settings than in isolated classification settings, with GPT-5.2 with highest reasoning mode achieving the best detection rate at 63%, up from 45% in isolated settings on TRACE. Building on this insight, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art models struggle significantly more with semantically contextualized reward hacks compared to syntactically contextualized ones. We further conduct qualitative analyses of model behaviors, as well as ablation studies showing that the ratio of benign to hacked trajectories and analysis cluster sizes substantially impact detection performance. We release the benchmark and evaluation harness to enable the community to expand TRACE and evaluate their models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can comply with harmful instructions, raising serious safety concerns despite their impressive capabilities. Recent work has leveraged probing-based approaches to study the separability of malicious and benign inputs in LLMs' internal representations, and researchers have proposed using such probing methods for safety detection. We systematically re-examine this paradigm. Motivated by poor out-of-distribution performance, we hypothesize that probes learn superficial patterns rather than semantic harmfulness. Through controlled experiments, we confirm this hypothesis and identify the specific patterns learned: instructional patterns and trigger words. Our investigation follows a systematic approach, progressing from demonstrating comparable performance of simple n-gram methods, to controlled experiments with semantically cleaned datasets, to detailed analysis of pattern dependencies. These results reveal a false sense of security around current probing-based approaches and highlight the need to redesign both models and evaluation protocols, for which we provide further discussions in the hope of suggesting responsible further research in this direction. We have open-sourced the project at https://github.com/WangCheng0116/Why-Probe-Fails.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Software requirements traceability is a critical component of the software engineering process, enabling activities such as requirements validation, compliance verification, and safety assurance. However, the cost and effort of manually creating a complete set of trace links across natural language artifacts such as requirements, design, and test-cases can be prohibitively expensive. Researchers have therefore proposed automated link-generation solutions primarily based on information-retrieval (IR) techniques; however, these solutions have failed to deliver the accuracy needed for full adoption in industrial projects. Improvements can be achieved using deep-learning traceability models; however, their efficacy is impeded by the limited size and availability of project-level artifacts and links to serve as training data. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing and evaluating several deep-learning approaches for text-to-text traceability. Our method, named NLTrace, explores three transfer learning strategies that use datasets mined from open world platforms. Through pretraining Language Models (LMs) and leveraging adjacent tracing tasks, we demonstrate that NLTrace can significantly improve the performance of LM based trace models when training links are available. In such scenarios NLTrace outperforms the best performing classical IR method with an 188% improvement in F2 score and 94.01% in Mean Average Precision (MAP). It also outperforms the general LM based trace model by 7% and 23% for F2 and MAP respectively. In addition, NLTrace can adapt to low-resource tracing scenarios where other LM models can not. The knowledge learned from adjacent tasks enables NLTrace to outperform VSM models by 28% F2 on generation challenges when presented with a small number of training examples.

LLM agents excel when environments are mostly static and the needed information fits in a model's context window, but they often fail in open-ended investigations where explanations must be constructed by iteratively mining evidence from massive, heterogeneous operational data. These investigations exhibit hidden dependency structure: entities interact, signals co-vary, and the importance of a fact may only become clear after other evidence is discovered. Because the context window is bounded, agents must summarize intermediate findings before their significance is known, increasing the risk of discarding key evidence. ReAct-style agents are especially brittle in this regime. Their retrieve-summarize-reason loop makes conclusions sensitive to exploration order and introduces run-to-run non-determinism, producing a reliability gap where Pass-at-k may be high but Majority-at-k remains low. Simply sampling more rollouts or generating longer reasoning traces does not reliably stabilize results, since hypotheses cannot be autonomously checked as new evidence arrives and there is no explicit mechanism for belief bookkeeping and revision. In addition, ReAct entangles semantic reasoning with controller duties such as tool orchestration and state tracking, so execution errors and plan drift degrade reasoning while consuming scarce context. We address these issues by formulating investigation as abductive reasoning over a dependency graph and proposing EoG (Explanations over Graphs), a disaggregated framework in which an LLM performs bounded local evidence mining and labeling (cause vs symptom) while a deterministic controller manages traversal, state, and belief propagation to compute a minimal explanatory frontier. On a representative ITBench diagnostics task, EoG improves both accuracy and run-to-run consistency over ReAct baselines, including a 7x average gain in Majority-at-k entity F1.

Tool-augmented LLMs are increasingly deployed as agents that interleave natural-language reasoning with executable Python actions, as in CodeAct-style frameworks. In deployment, these agents rely on runtime state that persists across steps. By contrast, common training pipelines treat agent traces as token sequences, with execution semantics left implicit. This raises a data-centric question: Is state persistence merely an inference-time scaffold, or can models learn to exploit it when training data exposes the corresponding execution semantics? We isolate state persistence as a training-time variable. We introduce Opaque Knapsack, a procedurally generated family of partially observable optimization tasks designed to prevent one-shot solutions. Item attributes and constraints are hidden behind budgeted tool calls, forcing multi-turn control flow and iterative state revision. Holding task instances, prompts, tools, model, and supervision fixed, we generate paired trajectories differing only in whether interpreter state persists across steps or resets after each action. We then fine-tune identical base models (Qwen3-8B) on each trace variant and evaluate all four train-runtime combinations. Our 2x2 cross-evaluation shows that execution semantics primarily affect how agents reach solutions, not whether they do: solution quality is statistically indistinguishable across conditions, but token cost and stability differ substantially. A persistent-trained model in a stateless runtime triggers missing-variable errors in roughly 80% of episodes; a stateless-trained model in a persistent runtime redundantly re-derives retained state, using roughly 3.5x more tokens. Interpreter persistence should be treated as a first-class semantic of agent traces. Aligning fine-tuning data with deployment runtimes improves efficiency and reduces brittle train-runtime mismatches.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for safety-sensitive machine learning applications and has been extensively studied, yielding a plethora of methods developed in the literature. However, most studies for OOD detection did not use pre-trained models and trained a backbone from scratch. In recent years, transferring knowledge from large pre-trained models to downstream tasks by lightweight tuning has become mainstream for training in-distribution (ID) classifiers. To bridge the gap between the practice of OOD detection and current classifiers, the unique and crucial problem is that the samples whose information networks know often come as OOD input. We consider that such data may significantly affect the performance of large pre-trained networks because the discriminability of these OOD data depends on the pre-training algorithm. Here, we define such OOD data as PT-OOD (Pre-Trained OOD) data. In this paper, we aim to reveal the effect of PT-OOD on the OOD detection performance of pre-trained networks from the perspective of pre-training algorithms. To achieve this, we explore the PT-OOD detection performance of supervised and self-supervised pre-training algorithms with linear-probing tuning, the most common efficient tuning method. Through our experiments and analysis, we find that the low linear separability of PT-OOD in the feature space heavily degrades the PT-OOD detection performance, and self-supervised models are more vulnerable to PT-OOD than supervised pre-trained models, even with state-of-the-art detection methods. To solve this vulnerability, we further propose a unique solution to large-scale pre-trained models: Leveraging powerful instance-by-instance discriminative representations of pre-trained models and detecting OOD in the feature space independent of the ID decision boundaries. The code will be available via https://github.com/AtsuMiyai/PT-OOD.

POMDPs capture a broad class of decision making problems, but hardness results suggest that learning is intractable even in simple settings due to the inherent partial observability. However, in many realistic problems, more information is either revealed or can be computed during some point of the learning process. Motivated by diverse applications ranging from robotics to data center scheduling, we formulate a Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) as a POMDP where the latent states are revealed to the learner in hindsight and only during training. We introduce new algorithms for the tabular and function approximation settings that are provably sample-efficient with hindsight observability, even in POMDPs that would otherwise be statistically intractable. We give a lower bound showing that the tabular algorithm is optimal in its dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.

Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) struggle with 3D spatial reasoning, as they fail to construct structured abstractions of the 3D environment depicted in video inputs. To bridge this gap, drawing inspiration from cognitive theories of allocentric spatial reasoning, we investigate how to enable MLLMs to model and reason over text-based spatial representations of video. Specifically, we introduce Textual Representation of Allocentric Context from Egocentric Video (TRACE), a prompting method that induces MLLMs to generate text-based representations of 3D environments as intermediate reasoning traces for more accurate spatial question answering. TRACE encodes meta-context, camera trajectories, and detailed object entities to support structured spatial reasoning over egocentric videos. Extensive experiments on VSI-Bench and OST-Bench demonstrate that TRACE yields notable and consistent improvements over prior prompting strategies across a diverse range of MLLM backbones, spanning different parameter scales and training schemas. We further present ablation studies to validate our design choices, along with detailed analyses that probe the bottlenecks of 3D spatial reasoning in MLLMs.

Practical identifiability is a critical concern in data-driven modeling of mathematical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for practical identifiability analysis to evaluate parameter identifiability in mathematical models of biological systems. Starting with a rigorous mathematical definition of practical identifiability, we demonstrate its equivalence to the invertibility of the Fisher Information Matrix. Our framework establishes the relationship between practical identifiability and coordinate identifiability, introducing a novel metric that simplifies and accelerates the evaluation of parameter identifiability compared to the profile likelihood method. Additionally, we introduce new regularization terms to address non-identifiable parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification and improving model reliability. To guide experimental design, we present an optimal data collection algorithm that ensures all model parameters are practically identifiable. Applications to Hill functions, neural networks, and dynamic biological models demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed computational framework in uncovering critical biological processes and identifying key observable variables.

Vision-language models (VLMs) achieve strong multimodal performance, yet how computation is organized across populations of neurons remains poorly understood. In this work, we study VLMs through the lens of neural topology, representing each layer as a within-layer correlation graph derived from neuron-neuron co-activations. This view allows us to ask whether population-level structure is behaviorally meaningful, how it changes across modalities and depth, and whether it identifies causally influential internal components under intervention. We show that correlation topology carries recoverable behavioral signal; moreover, cross-modal structure progressively consolidates with depth around a compact set of recurrent hub neurons, whose targeted perturbation substantially alters model output. Neural topology thus emerges as a meaningful intermediate scale for VLM interpretability: richer than local attribution, more tractable than full circuit recovery, and empirically tied to multimodal behavior. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/he-h/vlm-graph-probing.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.