Daily Papers

Real-time video restoration (VR) for live streams requires high-resolution outputs under strict per-frame latency constraints. Existing one-step diffusion-based VR models remain difficult to deploy on consumer-grade GPUs due to two main bottlenecks: quadratic spatial attention at high resolutions and the latency-memory overhead of large video autoencoders. We present SwiftVR, a streaming one-step generative VR framework that reduces both bottlenecks under a causal chunk-wise protocol. For attention, mask-free shifted-window self-attention gathers each spatial window into a dense tensor via deterministic indexing, keeping all attention calls on the dense scaled dot-product attention path without masks, cyclic shifts, padding, or hardware-specific sparse kernels. Because SwiftVR uses only standard dense SDPA calls, the trained model transfers to consumer GPUs without retraining or custom kernels. For autoencoding, a lightweight Restoration-aware Autoencoder enables fast chunk-wise decoding while preserving reconstruction quality. On a single H100, SwiftVR sustains 31~FPS at 2560x1440 and 14~FPS at 3840x2160, whereas all compared diffusion-based VR baselines exceed the memory limit at 4K. On a consumer RTX~5090, SwiftVR reaches 26~FPS at 1920x1080. To our knowledge, SwiftVR is the first generative VR model to achieve real-time 1080p streaming on a consumer-grade GPU, while attaining strong no-reference perceptual quality with lower inference cost. Project is available at https://h-oliday.github.io/SwiftVR.

Schema-guided reasoning pipelines ask LLMs to produce explicit intermediate structures -- rubrics, checklists, verification queries -- before committing to a final decision. But do these structures causally determine the output, or merely accompany it? We introduce a causal evaluation protocol that makes this directly measurable: by selecting tasks where a deterministic function maps intermediate structures to decisions, every controlled edit implies a unique correct output. Across eight models and three benchmarks, models appear self-consistent with their own intermediate structures but fail to update predictions after intervention in up to 60% of cases -- revealing that apparent faithfulness is fragile once the intermediate structure changes. When derivation of the final decision from the structure is delegated to an external tool, this fragility largely disappears; however, prompts which ask to prioritize the intermediate structure over the original input do not materially close the gap. Overall, intermediate structures in schema-guided pipelines function as influential context rather than stable causal mediators.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines requires corpora where ground truth is knowable, temporally structured, and cross-artifact properties that real-world datasets rarely provide cleanly. Existing resources such as the Enron corpus carry legal ambiguity, demographic skew, and no structured ground truth. Purely LLM-generated synthetic data solves the legal problem but introduces a subtler one: the generating model cannot be prevented from hallucinating facts that contradict themselves across documents.We present OrgForge, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework that enforces a strict physics-cognition boundary: a deterministic Python engine maintains a SimEvent ground truth bus; large language models generate only surface prose, constrained by validated proposals. An actor-local clock enforces causal timestamp correctness across all artifact types, eliminating the class of timeline inconsistencies that arise when timestamps are sampled independently per document. We formalize three graph-dynamic subsystems stress propagation via betweenness centrality, temporal edge-weight decay, and Dijkstra escalation routing that govern organizational behavior independently of any LLM. Running a configurable N-day simulation, OrgForge produces interleaved Slack threads, JIRA tickets, Confluence pages, Git pull requests, and emails, all traceable to a shared, immutable event log. We additionally describe a causal chain tracking subsystem that accumulates cross-artifact evidence graphs per incident, a hybrid reciprocal-rank-fusion recurrence detector for identifying repeated failure classes, and an inbound/outbound email engine that routes vendor alerts, customer complaints, and HR correspondence through gated causal chains with probabilistic drop simulation. OrgForge is available under the MIT license.

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has enhanced large language models by enabling access to external knowledge, with graph-based RAG emerging as a powerful paradigm for structured retrieval and reasoning. However, existing graph-based methods often over-rely on surface-level node matching and lack explicit causal modeling, leading to unfaithful or spurious answers. Prior attempts to incorporate causality are typically limited to local or single-document contexts and also suffer from information isolation that arises from modular graph structures, which hinders scalability and cross-module causal reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose HugRAG, a framework that rethinks knowledge organization for graph-based RAG through causal gating across hierarchical modules. HugRAG explicitly models causal relationships to suppress spurious correlations while enabling scalable reasoning over large-scale knowledge graphs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HugRAG consistently outperforms competitive graph-based RAG baselines across multiple datasets and evaluation metrics. Our work establishes a principled foundation for structured, scalable, and causally grounded RAG systems.

Large language model (LLM) routers improve the efficiency of multi-model systems by directing each query to the most appropriate model while leveraging the diverse strengths of heterogeneous LLMs. Most existing approaches frame routing as a classification problem based solely on the input query. While this reduces overhead by avoiding inference across all models, it overlooks valuable information that could be gleaned from potential outputs and fails to capture implicit intent or contextual nuances that often emerge only during response generation. These limitations can result in suboptimal routing decisions, particularly for complex or ambiguous queries that require deeper semantic understanding. To address this challenge, we propose Lookahead, a routing framework that "foresees" potential model outputs by predicting their latent representations and uses these predictions to guide model selection, thus enabling more informed routing without full inference. Within this framework, we implement two approaches based on causal and masked language models. Empirical evaluations across seven public benchmarks - spanning instruction following, mathematical reasoning, and code generation - show that Lookahead consistently outperforms existing routing baselines, achieving an average performance gain of 7.7% over the state-of-the-art. Our code is available at https://github.com/huangcb01/lookahead-routing.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Real-time interactive video generation requires low-latency, streaming, and controllable rollout. Existing autoregressive (AR) diffusion distillation methods have achieved strong results in the chunk-wise 4-step regime by distilling bidirectional base models into few-step AR students, but they remain limited by coarse response granularity and non-negligible sampling latency. In this paper, we study a more aggressive setting: frame-wise autoregression with only 1--2 sampling steps. In this regime, we identify the initialization of a few-step AR student as the key bottleneck: existing strategies are either target-misaligned, incapable of few-step generation, or too costly to scale. We propose Causal Forcing++, a principled and scalable pipeline that uses causal consistency distillation (causal CD) for few-step AR initialization. The core idea is that causal CD learns the same AR-conditional flow map as causal ODE distillation, but obtains supervision from a single online teacher ODE step between adjacent timesteps, avoiding the need to precompute and store full PF-ODE trajectories. This makes the initialization both more efficient and easier to optimize. The resulting pipeline, \ours, surpasses the SOTA 4-step chunk-wise Causal Forcing under the \textbf{frame-wise 2-step setting} by 0.1 in VBench Total, 0.3 in VBench Quality, and 0.335 in VisionReward, while reducing first-frame latency by 50\% and Stage 2 training cost by sim4times. We further extend the pipeline to action-conditioned world model generation in the spirit of Genie3. Project Page: https://github.com/thu-ml/Causal-Forcing and https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM .

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Differential privacy is a widely adopted framework designed to safeguard the sensitive information of data providers within a data set. It is based on the application of controlled noise at the interface between the server that stores and processes the data, and the data consumers. Local differential privacy is a variant that allows data providers to apply the privatization mechanism themselves on their data individually. Therefore it provides protection also in contexts in which the server, or even the data collector, cannot be trusted. The introduction of noise, however, inevitably affects the utility of the data, particularly by distorting the correlations between individual data components. This distortion can prove detrimental to tasks such as causal discovery. In this paper, we consider various well-known locally differentially private mechanisms and compare the trade-off between the privacy they provide, and the accuracy of the causal structure produced by algorithms for causal learning when applied to data obfuscated by these mechanisms. Our analysis yields valuable insights for selecting appropriate local differentially private protocols for causal discovery tasks. We foresee that our findings will aid researchers and practitioners in conducting locally private causal discovery.

Mixture-of-Experts layers achieve compute efficiency through weight sparsity: each token activates only a subset of experts. Data sparsity, where each expert processes only a subset of tokens, offers a complementary axis. Expert-choice routing implements data sparsity directly but violates causality in autoregressive models, creating train-inference mismatch. We recover data sparsity within causal token-choice MoE by leveraging zero-compute (null) experts within the routing pool. When a token routes to null experts, those slots consume no compute. The standard load balancing objective trains the model to uniformly use all experts (real and null) therefore creating data sparsity in expectation without the causality violations. We evaluate on vision-language model training, where data heterogeneity is pronounced: vision encoders produce many low-information tokens while text tokens are denser. At matched expected FLOPs, composing weight and data sparsity yields a more compute-efficient frontier than weight sparsity alone, with gains in training loss and downstream performance. The model learns implicit modality-aware allocation, routing vision tokens to null experts more aggressively than text, without explicit modality routing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

Generating realistic, dyadic talking head video requires ultra-low latency. Existing chunk-based methods require full non-causal context windows, introducing significant delays. This high latency critically prevents the immediate, non-verbal feedback required for a realistic listener. To address this, we present DyStream, a flow matching-based autoregressive model that could generate video in real-time from both speaker and listener audio. Our method contains two key designs: (1) we adopt a stream-friendly autoregressive framework with flow-matching heads for probabilistic modeling, and (2) We propose a causal encoder enhanced by a lookahead module to incorporate short future context (e.g., 60 ms) to improve quality while maintaining low latency. Our analysis shows this simple-and-effective method significantly surpass alternative causal strategies, including distillation and generative encoder. Extensive experiments show that DyStream could generate video within 34 ms per frame, guaranteeing the entire system latency remains under 100 ms. Besides, it achieves state-of-the-art lip-sync quality, with offline and online LipSync Confidence scores of 8.13 and 7.61 on HDTF, respectively. The model, weights and codes are available.

Agent communication protocols are becoming critical infrastructure for large language model (LLM) systems that must use tools, coordinate with other agents, and operate across heterogeneous environments. This work presents a human-inspired perspective on this emerging landscape by organizing agent communication into three layers: communication, syntactic, and semantic. Under this framework, we systematically analyze 18 representative protocols and compare how they support reliable transport, structured interaction, and meaning-level coordination. Our analysis shows a clear imbalance in current protocol design. Most protocols provide increasingly mature support for transport, streaming, schema definition, and lifecycle management, but offer limited protocol-level mechanisms for clarification, context alignment, and verification. As a result, semantic responsibilities are often pushed into prompts, wrappers, or application-specific orchestration logic, creating hidden interoperability and maintenance costs. To make this gap actionable, we further identify major forms of technical debt in today's protocol ecosystem and distill practical guidance for selecting protocols under different deployment settings. We conclude by outlining a research agenda for interoperable, secure, and semantically robust agent ecosystems that move beyond message passing toward shared understanding.

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook important statistical pitfalls, such as Simpson's paradox or selection bias. This oversight limits the applicability of LLMs in the real world. To address these limitations, we propose CausalPitfalls, a comprehensive benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the capability of LLMs in overcoming common causal inference pitfalls. Our benchmark features structured challenges across multiple difficulty levels, each paired with grading rubrics. This approach allows us to quantitatively measure both causal reasoning capabilities and the reliability of LLMs' responses. We evaluate models using two protocols: (1) direct prompting, which assesses intrinsic causal reasoning, and (2) code-assisted prompting, where models generate executable code for explicit statistical analysis. Additionally, we validate the effectiveness of this judge by comparing its scoring with assessments from human experts. Our results reveal significant limitations in current LLMs when performing statistical causal inference. The CausalPitfalls benchmark provides essential guidance and quantitative metrics to advance the development of trustworthy causal reasoning systems.

Token-choice Mixture-of-Experts (TC-MoE) routes each token to a fixed number of experts, limiting dynamic computation allocation and requiring auxiliary losses to maintain load balance. We propose Expert Threshold (ET) routing, where each expert maintains an exponential moving average (EMA) threshold estimated from the global token distribution. At both training and inference, each token is independently routed to an expert if its score exceeds the expert's threshold, enabling dynamic computation allocation while achieving load balance without auxiliary losses. This fully causal mechanism eliminates dependence on other tokens in the batch, making it well-suited for autoregressive language modeling. In pretraining experiments scaling to 2.4B parameters on FineWeb-Edu, ET achieves 0.067 lower cross-entropy loss than TC-MoE, equivalent to reaching the same performance with 1.6times fewer tokens.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them in parallel with the target model. However, its practical speedup is constrained by the trade-off between draft quality and drafting cost: autoregressive drafters model causal dependencies among draft tokens but incur sequential overhead, while parallel drafters reduce drafting cost but weaken intra-block dependency modeling. In this paper, we propose Domino, a speculative decoding framework that decouples causal dependency modeling from expensive autoregressive draft execution. Domino first uses a parallel draft backbone to produce preliminary draft distributions for the entire block, and then applies a lightweight Domino head to refine them with prefix-dependent causal information. To stabilize teacher-forced causal encoding, we further introduce a base-anchored training curriculum that first strengthens the parallel backbone and then gradually shifts optimization toward the causally corrected final distribution. Experiments on Qwen3 models show that Domino achieves up to \(5.49\times\) end-to-end speedup under the Transformers backend and up to \(5.8\times\) throughput speedup under SGLang serving.

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

LLM failures in causal reasoning, including sycophancy, rung collapse, and miscalibrated refusal, are well-documented, yet progress on remediation is slow because no benchmark enables systematic diagnosis. We introduce CausalT5K, a diagnostic benchmark of over 5,000 cases across 10 domains that tests three critical capabilities: (1) detecting rung collapse, where models answer interventional queries with associational evidence; (2) resisting sycophantic drift under adversarial pressure; and (3) generating Wise Refusals that specify missing information when evidence is underdetermined. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, CausalT5K embeds causal traps in realistic narratives and decomposes performance into Utility (sensitivity) and Safety (specificity), revealing failure modes invisible to aggregate accuracy. Developed through a rigorous human-machine collaborative pipeline involving 40 domain experts, iterative cross-validation cycles, and composite verification via rule-based, LLM, and human scoring, CausalT5K implements Pearl's Ladder of Causation as research infrastructure. Preliminary experiments reveal a Four-Quadrant Control Landscape where static audit policies universally fail, a finding that demonstrates CausalT5K's value for advancing trustworthy reasoning systems. Repository: https://github.com/genglongling/CausalT5kBench

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

Practical large language model (LLM) services may involve a long system prompt, which specifies the instructions, examples, and knowledge documents of the task and is reused across numerous requests. However, the long system prompt causes throughput/latency bottlenecks as the cost of generating the next token grows w.r.t. the sequence length. This paper aims to improve the efficiency of LLM services that involve long system prompts. Our key observation is that handling these system prompts requires heavily redundant memory accesses in existing causal attention computation algorithms. Specifically, for batched requests, the cached hidden states (i.e., key-value pairs) of system prompts are transferred from off-chip DRAM to on-chip SRAM multiple times, each corresponding to an individual request. To eliminate such a redundancy, we propose RelayAttention, an attention algorithm that allows reading these hidden states from DRAM exactly once for a batch of input tokens. RelayAttention is a free lunch: it maintains the generation quality while requiring no model retraining, as it is based on a mathematical reformulation of causal attention.

As multi-agent AI systems grow in complexity, the protocols connecting them constrain their capabilities. Current protocols such as A2A and MCP do not expose model-level properties as first-class primitives, ignoring properties fundamental to effective delegation: model identity, reasoning profile, quality calibration, and cost characteristics. We present the LLM Delegate Protocol (LDP), an AI-native communication protocol introducing five mechanisms: (1) rich delegate identity cards with quality hints and reasoning profiles; (2) progressive payload modes with negotiation and fallback; (3) governed sessions with persistent context; (4) structured provenance tracking confidence and verification status; (5) trust domains enforcing security boundaries at the protocol level. We implement LDP as a plugin for the JamJet agent runtime and evaluate against A2A and random baselines using local Ollama models and LLM-as-judge evaluation. Identity-aware routing achieves ~12x lower latency on easy tasks through delegate specialization, though it does not improve aggregate quality in our small delegate pool; semantic frame payloads reduce token count by 37% (p=0.031) with no observed quality loss; governed sessions eliminate 39% token overhead at 10 rounds; and noisy provenance degrades synthesis quality below the no-provenance baseline, arguing that confidence metadata is harmful without verification. Simulated analyses show architectural advantages in attack detection (96% vs. 6%) and failure recovery (100% vs. 35% completion). This paper contributes a protocol design, reference implementation, and initial evidence that AI-native protocol primitives enable more efficient and governable delegation.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant success across various domains. However, the inherent complexity of causal problems and causal theory poses challenges in accurately describing them in natural language, making it difficult for LLMs to comprehend and use them effectively. Causal methods are not easily conveyed through natural language, which hinders LLMs' ability to apply them accurately. Additionally, causal datasets are typically tabular, while LLMs excel in handling natural language data, creating a structural mismatch that impedes effective reasoning with tabular data. This lack of causal reasoning capability limits the development of LLMs. To address these challenges, we have equipped the LLM with causal tools within an agent framework, named the Causal Agent, enabling it to tackle causal problems. The causal agent comprises tools, memory, and reasoning modules. In the tools module, the causal agent applies causal methods to align tabular data with natural language. In the reasoning module, the causal agent employs the ReAct framework to perform reasoning through multiple iterations with the tools. In the memory module, the causal agent maintains a dictionary instance where the keys are unique names and the values are causal graphs. To verify the causal ability of the causal agent, we established a benchmark consisting of four levels of causal problems: variable level, edge level, causal graph level, and causal effect level. We generated a test dataset of 1.3K using ChatGPT-3.5 for these four levels of issues and tested the causal agent on the datasets. Our methodology demonstrates remarkable efficacy on the four-level causal problems, with accuracy rates all above 80%. For further insights and implementation details, our code is accessible via the GitHub repository https://github.com/Kairong-Han/Causal_Agent.

The principle of independent causal mechanisms (ICM) states that generative processes of real world data consist of independent modules which do not influence or inform each other. While this idea has led to fruitful developments in the field of causal inference, it is not widely-known in the NLP community. In this work, we argue that the causal direction of the data collection process bears nontrivial implications that can explain a number of published NLP findings, such as differences in semi-supervised learning (SSL) and domain adaptation (DA) performance across different settings. We categorize common NLP tasks according to their causal direction and empirically assay the validity of the ICM principle for text data using minimum description length. We conduct an extensive meta-analysis of over 100 published SSL and 30 DA studies, and find that the results are consistent with our expectations based on causal insights. This work presents the first attempt to analyze the ICM principle in NLP, and provides constructive suggestions for future modeling choices. Code available at https://github.com/zhijing-jin/icm4nlp

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

Deep learning models are mostly used in an offline inference fashion. However, this strongly limits the use of these models inside audio generation setups, as most creative workflows are based on real-time digital signal processing. Although approaches based on recurrent networks can be naturally adapted to this buffer-based computation, the use of convolutions still poses some serious challenges. To tackle this issue, the use of causal streaming convolutions have been proposed. However, this requires specific complexified training and can impact the resulting audio quality. In this paper, we introduce a new method allowing to produce non-causal streaming models. This allows to make any convolutional model compatible with real-time buffer-based processing. As our method is based on a post-training reconfiguration of the model, we show that it is able to transform models trained without causal constraints into a streaming model. We show how our method can be adapted to fit complex architectures with parallel branches. To evaluate our method, we apply it on the recent RAVE model, which provides high-quality real-time audio synthesis. We test our approach on multiple music and speech datasets and show that it is faster than overlap-add methods, while having no impact on the generation quality. Finally, we introduce two open-source implementation of our work as Max/MSP and PureData externals, and as a VST audio plugin. This allows to endow traditional digital audio workstation with real-time neural audio synthesis on a laptop CPU.

Recent studies have revealed that self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems frequently lead to widespread outages, which are challenging to contain and recover from. Existing failure detection techniques struggle to expose such failures prior to deployment, as they typically require a complex combination of specific conditions to be triggered. This challenge stems from the inherent nature of cascading failures, as they typically involve a sequence of fault propagations, each activated by distinct conditions. This paper presents CSnake, a fault injection framework to expose self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems. CSnake uses the novel idea of causal stitching, which causally links multiple single-fault injections in different tests to simulate complex fault propagation chains. To identify these chains, CSnake designs a counterfactual causality analysis of fault propagations - fault causality analysis (FCA): FCA compares the execution trace of a fault injection run with its corresponding profile run (i.e., same test w/o the injection) and identifies any additional faults triggered, which are considered to have a causal relationship with the injected fault. To address the large search space of fault and workload combinations, CSnake employs a three-phase allocation protocol of test budget that prioritizes faults with unique and diverse causal consequences, increasing the likelihood of uncovering conditional fault propagations. Furthermore, to avoid incorrectly connecting fault propagations from workloads with incompatible conditions, CSnake performs a local compatibility check that approximately checks the compatibility of the path constraints associated with connected fault propagations with low overhead. CSnake detected 15 bugs that cause self-sustaining cascading failures in five systems, five of which have been confirmed with two fixed.

Can multi-agent communication pressure extract discrete, compositional representations of invisible physical properties from frozen video features? We show that agents communicating through a Gumbel-Softmax bottleneck with iterated learning develop positionally disentangled protocols for latent properties (elasticity, friction, mass ratio) without property labels or supervision on message structure. With 4 agents, 100% of 80 seeds converge to near-perfect compositionality (PosDis=0.999, holdout 98.3%). Controls confirm multi-agent structure -- not bandwidth or temporal coverage -- drives this effect. Causal intervention shows surgical property disruption (~15% drop on targeted property, <3% on others). A controlled backbone comparison reveals that the perceptual prior determines what is communicable: DINOv2 dominates on spatially-visible ramp physics (98.3% vs 95.1%), while V-JEPA 2 dominates on dynamics-only collision physics (87.4% vs 77.7%, d=2.74). Scale-matched (d=3.37) and frame-matched (d=6.53) controls attribute this gap entirely to video-native pretraining. The frozen protocol supports action-conditioned planning (91.5%) with counterfactual velocity reasoning (r=0.780). Validation on Physics 101 real camera footage confirms 85.6% mass-comparison accuracy on unseen objects, temporal dynamics contributing +11.2% beyond static appearance, agent-scaling compositionality replicating at 90% for 4 agents, and causal intervention extending to real video (d=1.87, p=0.022).

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) standardizes how AI agents discover and invoke external tools, with over 10,000 active servers and 97 million monthly SDK downloads as of early 2026. Yet MCP does not yet standardize how agents safely operate those tools at production scale. Three protocol-level primitives remain missing: identity propagation, adaptive tool budgeting, and structured error semantics. This paper identifies these gaps through field lessons from an enterprise deployment of an AI agent platform integrated with a major cloud provider's MCP servers (client name redacted). We propose three mechanisms to fill them: (1) the Context-Aware Broker Protocol (CABP), which extends JSON-RPC with identity-scoped request routing via a six-stage broker pipeline; (2) Adaptive Timeout Budget Allocation (ATBA), which frames sequential tool invocation as a budget allocation problem over heterogeneous latency distributions; and (3) the Structured Error Recovery Framework (SERF), which provides machine-readable failure semantics that enable deterministic agent self-correction. We organize production failure modes into five design dimensions (server contracts, user context, timeouts, errors, and observability), document concrete failure vignettes, and present a production readiness checklist. All three algorithms are formalized as testable hypotheses with reproducible experimental methodology. Field observations demonstrate that while MCP provides a solid protocol foundation, reliable agent tool integration requires infrastructure-level mechanisms that the specification does not yet address.

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification-formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions-and estimation-implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 173 queries across 138 real-world datasets, curated from 85 peer-reviewed research papers and four widely-used causal-inference textbooks. For each query a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 84 % of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 30 %, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

This preprint presents an empirical analysis of byte-exact chunk-level deduplication in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines. We measure context reduction across three distinct operating regimes: clean academic retrieval (0.16% byte reduction on 22.2M BeIR passages), constructed enterprise patterns (24.03% reduction), and multi-turn conversational AI (80.34% reduction). To validate quality preservation, we conducted a cross-vendor 5-judge calibrated panel evaluation across four production APIs (Google Gemini 2.5 Flash, Anthropic Claude Sonnet 4.6, Meta Llama 3.3 70B, and OpenAI GPT-5.1). Applying a five-category human-in-the-loop noise-removal protocol to panel-majority materially different (MAT) pairs, we establish that byte-exact deduplication introduces zero measurable quality regression. Post-audit, all four vendors clear the strict <5% Wilson 95% upper-bound MAT threshold in both the clean and high-redundancy RAG regimes. This work demonstrates that substantial inference compute savings can be achieved deterministically without compromising evaluation-grade model quality.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at generation but dominant autoregressive (AR) decoding is inherently sequential, creating a throughput bottleneck. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs)--especially block-wise variants--enable parallel generation and intra-block bidirectional reasoning, yet training large DLMs from scratch is costly and wastes the knowledge in mature AR checkpoints. Prior "adaptation" attempts either modify logits or randomly grow attention masks to full-sequence diffusion, or simply transplant AR weights into a block-diffusion recipe, leaving a fundamental mismatch between AR causality and block-wise bidirectionality unaddressed. We reframe adaptation as a intra-paradigm path from AR to Block-Diffusion by viewing AR as Block-Diffusion with blocksize=1. Concretely, we design the pathway of adaptation as follows: we use a context-causal attention mask (causal in context, bidirectional only within the active block), an efficient parallel adaptation procedure, an auxiliary AR loss to maximize data utilization and retain pretrained knowledge, and gradual increment of the generation block size. The recipe integrates cleanly with masked block-diffusion and maintains train-inference consistency. Built on these components, NBDiff-7B (Base and Instruct) could inherit the long-context modeling and reasoning capabilities, and achieve state-of-the-art performance among the 7B-class DLMs, delivering strong gains on general-knowledge, math, and code benchmarks over strong baselines. These results demonstrate that principled AR-to-block-diffusion adaptation is an effective and compute-efficient alternative to training DLMs from scratch. Codes: https://github.com/YuchuanTian/NBDiff.

Real-time portrait animation is essential for interactive applications such as virtual assistants and live avatars, requiring high visual fidelity, temporal coherence, ultra-low latency, and responsive control from dynamic inputs like reference images and driving signals. While diffusion-based models achieve strong quality, their non-causal nature hinders streaming deployment. Causal autoregressive video generation approaches enable efficient frame-by-frame generation but suffer from error accumulation, motion discontinuities at chunk boundaries, and degraded long-term consistency. In this work, we present a novel streaming framework named Knot Forcing for real-time portrait animation that addresses these challenges through three key designs: (1) a chunk-wise generation strategy with global identity preservation via cached KV states of the reference image and local temporal modeling using sliding window attention; (2) a temporal knot module that overlaps adjacent chunks and propagates spatio-temporal cues via image-to-video conditioning to smooth inter-chunk motion transitions; and (3) A "running ahead" mechanism that dynamically updates the reference frame's temporal coordinate during inference, keeping its semantic context ahead of the current rollout frame to support long-term coherence. Knot Forcing enables high-fidelity, temporally consistent, and interactive portrait animation over infinite sequences, achieving real-time performance with strong visual stability on consumer-grade GPUs.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications is increasingly limited by their high inference cost. While recent advances in dynamic token-level computation allocation attempt to improve efficiency by selectively activating model components per token, existing methods rely on greedy routing--a myopic execute-or-skip mechanism that often leads to irreversible information loss and suboptimal token selection. This paper introduces informed routing, a new paradigm that proactively addresses these issues. The key insight is to assess not only a token's immediate importance but also its recoverability, i.e., how well its transformation can be approximated. To this end, we propose the Lightweight Feature Forecaster (LFF), a small predictive module that estimates a unit's output before routing decisions are made. This enables a flexible execute-or-approximate policy that preserves model fidelity while drastically reducing computation. Extensive experiments on both language modeling and reasoning tasks show that informed routing achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-performance trade-offs across multiple sparsity levels. Notably, even without final LoRA fine-tuning, our method matches or surpasses strong baselines that require full fine-tuning, all while reducing training time by over 50%. The code is available at: https://github.com/EIT-NLP/informed-routing

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises: can they really understand causal graphs? To this end, we pioneer an investigation into language models' understanding of causal graphs. Specifically, we develop a framework to define causal graph understanding, by assessing language models' behaviors through four practical criteria derived from diverse disciplines (e.g., philosophy and psychology). We then develop CLEAR, a novel benchmark that defines three complexity levels and encompasses 20 causal graph-based tasks across these levels. Finally, based on our framework and benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on six leading language models and summarize five empirical findings. Our results indicate that while language models demonstrate a preliminary understanding of causal graphs, significant potential for improvement remains. Our project website is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CLEAR.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Standard evaluation protocols reveal a counterintuitive phenomenon: on 7.7% of benchmark problems spanning five datasets, larger language models underperform smaller ones by 28.4 percentage points despite 10-100x more parameters. Through systematic evaluation of 31 models (0.5B-405B parameters) across 1,485 problems, we identify the mechanism as spontaneous scale-dependent verbosity that introduces errors through overelaboration. Causal intervention experiments demonstrate this reflects correctable prompt design rather than fundamental capability limitations. Constraining large models to produce brief responses improves accuracy by 26 percentage points and reduces performance gaps by up to two-thirds. Most critically, brevity constraints completely reverse performance hierarchies on mathematical reasoning and scientific knowledge benchmarks, with large models achieving 7.7-15.9 percentage point advantages over small models -- direct inversions of the original gaps. These reversals prove large models possess superior latent capabilities that universal prompting masks. We validate findings through three independent contamination tests and demonstrate inverse scaling operates continuously across the full parameter spectrum, with dataset-specific optimal scales ranging from 0.5B to 3.0B parameters. Our results establish that maximizing large model performance requires scale-aware prompt engineering rather than universal evaluation protocols, with immediate implications for deployment: prompt adaptation simultaneously improves accuracy and reduces computational costs.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems critically depend on effective document chunking strategies to balance retrieval quality, latency, and operational cost. Traditional chunking approaches, such as fixed-size, rule-based, or fully agentic chunking, often suffer from high token consumption, redundant text generation, limited scalability, and poor debuggability, especially for large-scale web content ingestion. In this paper, we propose Web Retrieval-Aware Chunking (W-RAC), a novel, cost-efficient chunking framework designed specifically for web-based documents. W-RAC decouples text extraction from semantic chunk planning by representing parsed web content as structured, ID-addressable units and leveraging large language models (LLMs) only for retrieval-aware grouping decisions rather than text generation. This significantly reduces token usage, eliminates hallucination risks, and improves system observability.Experimental analysis and architectural comparison demonstrate that W-RAC achieves comparable or better retrieval performance than traditional chunking approaches while reducing chunking-related LLM costs by an order of magnitude.

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insights into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly improve upon those of standard multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms under mild conditions. Lastly, we prove our mild conditions are necessary: without them one cannot do better than standard MAB algorithms.

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

We introduce Bitune, a method that improves instruction-tuning of pretrained decoder-only large language models, leading to consistent gains on downstream tasks. Bitune applies both causal and bidirectional attention to the prompt, to obtain a better representation of the query or instruction. We realize this by introducing two sets of parameters, for which we apply parameter-efficient finetuning techniques. These causal and bidirectional features are then combined into a weighted average with trainable coefficients, which is subsequently used to generate new tokens. We demonstrate significant improvements in zero-shot performance on commonsense reasoning, arithmetic, and language understanding tasks, while extensive ablation studies validate the role of each component and demonstrate the method's agnosticism to different PEFT techniques.

Causal abstraction is a promising theoretical framework for explainable artificial intelligence that defines when an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful simplification of a low-level deep learning system. However, existing causal abstraction methods have two major limitations: they require a brute-force search over alignments between the high-level model and the low-level one, and they presuppose that variables in the high-level model will align with disjoint sets of neurons in the low-level one. In this paper, we present distributed alignment search (DAS), which overcomes these limitations. In DAS, we find the alignment between high-level and low-level models using gradient descent rather than conducting a brute-force search, and we allow individual neurons to play multiple distinct roles by analyzing representations in non-standard bases-distributed representations. Our experiments show that DAS can discover internal structure that prior approaches miss. Overall, DAS removes previous obstacles to conducting causal abstraction analyses and allows us to find conceptual structure in trained neural nets.

Concurrent LLM agents sharing mutable natural-language state produce Structural Race Conditions (SRCs): write-write and cross-shard stale-read conflicts that silently corrupt agent output. Existing multi-agent frameworks (LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGen) provide no write-ownership semantics over shared state. We present S-Bus, an HTTP middleware whose central mechanism is a server-side DeliveryLog: a per-agent log of HTTP GET operations that automatically reconstructs each agent's read set at commit time without agent SDK changes under HTTP/1.1. The consistency property the DeliveryLog provides -- Observable-Read Isolation (ORI), a partial causal consistency over the HTTP-observable projection of the read set -- prevents structural race conditions when agents collaborate via shared shards. Three contributions: (C1) The DeliveryLog mechanism for automatic HTTP-traffic-based read-set reconstruction, with three-tier mechanised evidence: ReadSetSoundness and ORICommitSafety machine-checked in TLAPS (modulo one retained typing axiom); exhaustive TLC at N=3 (20,763,484 distinct states, zero violations); Dafny discharges 9 inductive soundness lemmas. (C2) Empirical structural-conflict prevention parity against PostgreSQL 17 SERIALIZABLE and Redis 7 WATCH/MULTI on shared-shard contention sweeps with 427,308 active HTTP-409 conflicts: zero Type-I corruptions across all three backends. (C3) ORI's operating envelope is topology-conditional: semantically neutral in dedicated-shard workloads; harmful in single-shard collaborative writing because preservation propagates concurrent contradictions. Source code: https://github.com/sajjadanwar0/sbus

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

GossipSub is a new peer-to-peer communication protocol designed to counter attacks from misbehaving peers by controlling what information is sent and to whom, via a score function computed by each peer that captures positive and negative behaviors of its neighbors. The score function depends on several parameters (weights, caps, thresholds) that can be configured by applications using GossipSub. The specification for GossipSub is written in English and its resilience to attacks from misbehaving peers is supported empirically by emulation testing using an implementation in Golang. In this work we take a foundational approach to understanding the resilience of GossipSub to attacks from misbehaving peers. We build the first formal model of GossipSub, using the ACL2s theorem prover. Our model is officially endorsed by the GossipSub developers. It can simulate GossipSub networks of arbitrary size and topology, with arbitrarily configured peers, and can be used to prove and disprove theorems about the protocol. We formalize fundamental security properties stating that the score function is fair, penalizes bad behavior, and rewards good behavior. We prove that the score function is always fair, but can be configured in ways that either penalize good behavior or ignore bad behavior. Using our model, we run GossipSub with the specific configurations for two popular real-world applications: the FileCoin and Eth2.0 blockchains. We show that all properties hold for FileCoin. However, given any Eth2.0 network (of any topology and size) with any number of potentially misbehaving peers, we can synthesize attacks where these peers are able to continuously misbehave by never forwarding topic messages, while maintaining positive scores so that they are never pruned from the network by GossipSub.

The deployment of modern network applications is increasing the network size and traffic volumes at an unprecedented pace. Storing network-related information (e.g., traffic traces) is key to enable efficient network management. However, this task is becoming more challenging due to the ever-increasing data transmission rates and traffic volumes. In this paper, we present a novel method for network traffic compression that exploits spatial and temporal patterns naturally present in network traffic. We consider a realistic scenario where traffic measurements are performed at multiple links of a network topology using tools like SNMP or NetFlow. Such measurements can be seen as multiple time series that exhibit spatial and temporal correlations induced by the network topology, routing or user behavior. Our method leverages graph learning methods to effectively exploit both types of correlations for traffic compression. The experimental results show that our solution is able to outperform GZIP, the de facto traffic compression method, improving by 50\%-65\% the compression ratio on three real-world networks.

Streaming speech recognition architectures are employed for low-latency, real-time applications. Such architectures are often characterized by their causality. Causal architectures emit tokens at each frame, relying only on current and past signal, while non-causal models are exposed to a window of future frames at each step to increase predictive accuracy. This dichotomy amounts to a trade-off for real-time Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system design: profit from the low-latency benefit of strictly-causal architectures while accepting predictive performance limitations, or realize the modeling benefits of future-context models accompanied by their higher latency penalty. In this work, we relax the constraints of this choice and present the Adaptive Non-Causal Attention Transducer (ANCAT). Our architecture is non-causal in the traditional sense, but executes in a low-latency, streaming manner by dynamically choosing when to rely on future context and to what degree within the audio stream. The resulting mechanism, when coupled with our novel regularization algorithms, delivers comparable accuracy to non-causal configurations while improving significantly upon latency, closing the gap with their causal counterparts. We showcase our design experimentally by reporting comparative ASR task results with measures of accuracy and latency on both publicly accessible and production-scale, voice-assistant datasets.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in generative AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate the design of CCR tasks for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. Additionally, CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

In view of the problem that each subchain in the chain-of-model (CoM) relies only on the information of the previous subchain and may lose long-range dependencies due to the causal mask blocking the global context flow between multi-level subchains, this work proposes a graph of causal evolution (GoCE). Its core principle is to map the implicit token representation into a differentiable and sparse causal adjacency matrix, then permeate causal constraints through each layer of calculation using causal-masked attention and causal-MoE. By combining intervention consistency loss test and self-evolution gate, the dynamic balance between causal structure learning and adaptive updating of transformer architecture is realized. The researcher built experimental environments in sandboxes built with Claude Sonnet 4, o4-mini-high, and DeepSeek R1 respectively with the transformer variant architecture introduced in GoCE. It is evaluated on publicly available datasets including CLUTRR, CLADDER, EX-FEVER, and CausalQA and compared with the baseline LLMs. The finding proves that GoCE strengthens the transformer's ability to capture long-range causal dependencies, while the ability to self-evolve is improved. It not only surpasses the design of CoM in terms of design principles, but also provides experience for future research on causal learning and continuous adaptive improvement.

The presence of unhealthy nodes in cloud infrastructure signals the potential failure of machines, which can significantly impact the availability and reliability of cloud services, resulting in negative customer experiences. Effectively addressing unhealthy node mitigation is therefore vital for sustaining cloud system performance. This paper introduces Deoxys, a causal inference engine tailored to recommending mitigation actions for unhealthy node in cloud systems to minimize virtual machine downtime and interruptions during unhealthy events. It employs double machine learning combined with causal forest to produce precise and reliable mitigation recommendations based solely on limited observational data collected from the historical unhealthy events. To enhance the causal inference model, Deoxys further incorporates a policy fallback mechanism based on model uncertainty and action overriding mechanisms to (i) improve the reliability of the system, and (ii) strike a good tradeoff between downtime reduction and resource utilization, thereby enhancing the overall system performance. After deploying Deoxys in a large-scale cloud infrastructure at Microsoft, our observations demonstrate that Deoxys significantly reduces average VM downtime by 53% compared to a legacy policy, while leading to 49.5% lower VM interruption rate. This substantial improvement enhances the reliability and stability of cloud platforms, resulting in a seamless customer experience.

In this work, we propose Causal Autoregressive Diffusion (CARD), a novel framework that unifies the training efficiency of ARMs with the high-throughput inference of diffusion models. CARD reformulates the diffusion process within a strictly causal attention mask, enabling dense, per-token supervision in a single forward pass. To address the optimization instability of causal diffusion, we introduce a soft-tailed masking schema to preserve local context and a context-aware reweighting mechanism derived from signal-to-noise principles. This design enables dynamic parallel decoding, where the model leverages KV-caching to adaptively generate variable-length token sequences based on confidence. Empirically, CARD outperforms existing discrete diffusion baselines while reducing training latency by 3 times compared to block diffusion methods. Our results demonstrate that CARD achieves ARM-level data efficiency while unlocking the latency benefits of parallel generation, establishing a robust paradigm for next-generation efficient LLMs.

Obtaining human-interpretable explanations of large, general-purpose language models is an urgent goal for AI safety. However, it is just as important that our interpretability methods are faithful to the causal dynamics underlying model behavior and able to robustly generalize to unseen inputs. Distributed Alignment Search (DAS) is a powerful gradient descent method grounded in a theory of causal abstraction that uncovered perfect alignments between interpretable symbolic algorithms and small deep learning models fine-tuned for specific tasks. In the present paper, we scale DAS significantly by replacing the remaining brute-force search steps with learned parameters -- an approach we call DAS. This enables us to efficiently search for interpretable causal structure in large language models while they follow instructions. We apply DAS to the Alpaca model (7B parameters), which, off the shelf, solves a simple numerical reasoning problem. With DAS, we discover that Alpaca does this by implementing a causal model with two interpretable boolean variables. Furthermore, we find that the alignment of neural representations with these variables is robust to changes in inputs and instructions. These findings mark a first step toward deeply understanding the inner-workings of our largest and most widely deployed language models.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

Large reasoning models (LRMs) spend substantial test-time compute on long chain-of-thought (CoT) traces, but what *characterizes* an effective CoT remains unclear. While prior work reports gains from lengthening CoTs and increasing review (revisiting earlier steps) via appended *wait* tokens, recent studies suggest that shorter thinking can outperform longer traces. We therefore conduct a systematic evaluation across ten LRMs on math and scientific reasoning. Contrary to the "longer-is-better" narrative, we find that both naive CoT lengthening and increased review are associated with *lower* accuracy. As CoT unfolds step by step, token-level metrics can conflate verbosity with process quality. We introduce a graph view of CoT to extract structure and identify a single statistic-the *Failed-Step Fraction (FSF)*, the fraction of steps in abandoned branches-that consistently outpredicts length and review ratio for correctness across models. To probe causality, we design two interventions. First, we rank candidate CoTs by each metric at test time, where FSF yields the largest pass@1 gains; second, we edit CoTs to remove failed branches, which significantly improves accuracy, indicating that failed branches bias subsequent reasoning. Taken together, these results characterize effective CoTs as those that *fail less* and support *structure-aware* test-time scaling over indiscriminately generating long CoT.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve remarkable performance by explicitly generating multi-step chains of thought, but this capability incurs substantial inference latency and computational cost. Collaborative inference offers a promising solution by selectively allocating work between lightweight and large models, yet a fundamental challenge remains: determining when a reasoning step requires the capacity of a large model or the efficiency of a small model. Existing routing strategies either rely on local token probabilities or post-hoc verification, introducing significant inference overhead. In this work, we propose a novel perspective on step-wise collaboration: the difficulty of a reasoning step can be inferred from its very first token. Inspired by the "Aha Moment" phenomenon in LRMs, we show that the entropy of the initial token serves as a strong predictor of step difficulty. Building on this insight, we introduce GlimpRouter, a training-free step-wise collaboration framework. GlimpRouter employs a lightweight model to generate only the first token of each reasoning step and routes the step to a larger model only when the initial token entropy exceeds a threshold. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces inference latency while preserving accuracy. For instance, GlimpRouter attains a substantial 10.7% improvement in accuracy while reducing inference latency by 25.9% compared to a standalone large model on AIME25. These results suggest a simple yet effective mechanism for reasoning: allocating computation based on a glimpse of thought rather than full-step evaluation.

Prompt-based probing has been widely used in evaluating the abilities of pretrained language models (PLMs). Unfortunately, recent studies have discovered such an evaluation may be inaccurate, inconsistent and unreliable. Furthermore, the lack of understanding its inner workings, combined with its wide applicability, has the potential to lead to unforeseen risks for evaluating and applying PLMs in real-world applications. To discover, understand and quantify the risks, this paper investigates the prompt-based probing from a causal view, highlights three critical biases which could induce biased results and conclusions, and proposes to conduct debiasing via causal intervention. This paper provides valuable insights for the design of unbiased datasets, better probing frameworks and more reliable evaluations of pretrained language models. Furthermore, our conclusions also echo that we need to rethink the criteria for identifying better pretrained language models. We openly released the source code and data at https://github.com/c-box/causalEval.

We introduce a new paradigm for building large causal models (LCMs) that exploits the enormous potential latent in today's large language models (LLMs). We describe our ongoing experiments with an implemented system called DEMOCRITUS (Decentralized Extraction of Manifold Ontologies of Causal Relations Integrating Topos Universal Slices) aimed at building, organizing, and visualizing LCMs that span disparate domains extracted from carefully targeted textual queries to LLMs. DEMOCRITUS is methodologically distinct from traditional narrow domain and hypothesis centered causal inference that builds causal models from experiments that produce numerical data. A high-quality LLM is used to propose topics, generate causal questions, and extract plausible causal statements from a diverse range of domains. The technical challenge is then to take these isolated, fragmented, potentially ambiguous and possibly conflicting causal claims, and weave them into a coherent whole, converting them into relational causal triples and embedding them into a LCM. Addressing this technical challenge required inventing new categorical machine learning methods, which we can only briefly summarize in this paper, as it is focused more on the systems side of building DEMOCRITUS. We describe the implementation pipeline for DEMOCRITUS comprising of six modules, examine its computational cost profile to determine where the current bottlenecks in scaling the system to larger models. We describe the results of using DEMOCRITUS over a wide range of domains, spanning archaeology, biology, climate change, economics, medicine and technology. We discuss the limitations of the current DEMOCRITUS system, and outline directions for extending its capabilities.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) typically generate outputs token by token using a fixed compute budget, leading to inefficient resource utilization. To address this shortcoming, recent advancements in mixture of expert (MoE) models, speculative decoding, and early exit strategies leverage the insight that computational demands can vary significantly based on the complexity and nature of the input. However, identifying optimal routing patterns for dynamic execution remains an open challenge, limiting the full potential of these adaptive methods. To address this need, we study adaptive computation in LLMs more systematically. We propose a novel framework that integrates smaller auxiliary modules within each Feed-Forward Network layer of the LLM. This design enables dynamic routing of tokens based on task complexity: tokens can be processed by either the small or big modules at each layer, or even bypass certain layers entirely. This allows us to introduce a novel notion of a token's difficulty, defined by its potential to benefit from additional computational resources. Importantly, by employing oracles to identify optimal patterns of adaptive computations, we gain valuable insights into the internal workings of LLMs and the routing processes in a simplified heterogeneous MoE setup. We show that trained routers operate differently from oracles and often yield suboptimal solutions. Notably, activating a large module in just one layer outperforms models that use large modules across all layers, underscoring the gap between practical implementations of routing in MoE models and theoretical optima for adaptive computation.

This report presents the Prime Collective Communications Library (PCCL), a novel fault-tolerant collective communication library designed for distributed ML workloads over the public internet. PCCL introduces a new programming model that enables dynamic peer joining and failure recovery. The library implements efficient collective operations like all-reduce while providing robust fault tolerance mechanisms that allow the system to continue operating even when peers fail or join during ongoing operations. We demonstrate that PCCL's design enables practical solutions to dynamic membership challenges in workloads with repeated operations and deterministic state advancement. Our implementation passes extensive stress tests across all major operating systems, showing reliable operation even under rapid peer churn and concurrent collective operations. By dispatching to multiple connections, we can efficiently utilize cross-continental long-fat-pipe TCP WAN links, in our experiments achieving up to 45 Gbit/s of bandwidth utilization across Europe and 25 Gbit/s across North America and Europe. PCCL's architecture enables easy implementation of distributed low-communication optimization strategies like DiLoCo, which significantly reduce communication frequency. Combined with quantization, this leads to a significant reduction in the bandwidth required for distributed training workloads. PCCL also allows for concurrent collective operations, which enables optimization strategies like async DiLoCo, which can completely hide communication overhead by implementing one-step delayed parameter updates. PCCL can facilitate exact bit-parity of the shared state across peers in all cases induced by graceful or abrupt peer churn. While PCCL exposes a C99 API, Python bindings are available which are compatible with PyTorch alongside FSDP. PCCL is available under the open source MIT license.

Citation count of a paper is a commonly used proxy for evaluating the significance of a paper in the scientific community. Yet citation measures are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect the true impact of a paper. Thus, we propose CausalCite, a new way to measure the significance of a paper by assessing the causal impact of the paper on its follow-up papers. CausalCite is based on a novel causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. TextMatch encodes each paper using text embeddings from large language models (LLMs), extracts similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesizes a counterfactual sample as the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CausalCite on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various subfields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of the quality of a paper. Our code is available at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

As large language models (LLMs) scale up, accuracy improves, but the autoregressive (AR) nature of decoding increases latency since each token requires a serial forward pass. Speculative decoding addresses this by employing a fast drafter to propose multi-token drafts, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, many deployments still rely on AR drafters, where sequential passes limit wall-clock gains. We revisit the drafting stage and present DiffuSpec, a training-free drop-in framework that uses a pretrained diffusion language model (DLM) to produce multi-token drafts in a single forward pass, while remaining compatible with standard AR verifiers. Because DLM drafts are generated under bidirectional conditioning, parallel per-position candidates form a token lattice in which the locally highest-probability token at each position need not form a causal left-to-right path. Moreover, DLM drafting requires pre-specifying a draft length, inducing a speed-quality trade-off. To address these challenges, we introduce two practical components: (i) a causal-consistency path search (CPS) over this lattice that extracts a left-to-right path aligned with AR verification; and (ii) an adaptive draft-length (ADL) controller that adjusts next proposal size based on recent acceptance feedback and realized generated length. Across benchmarks, DiffuSpec yields up to 3x wall-clock speedup, establishing diffusion-based drafting as a robust alternative to autoregressive drafters for speculative decoding.

Latent or continuous chain-of-thought methods replace explicit textual rationales with a number of internal latent steps, but these intermediate computations are difficult to evaluate beyond correlation-based probes. In this paper, we view latent chain-of-thought as a manipulable causal process in representation space by modeling latent steps as variables in a structural causal model (SCM) and analyzing their effects through step-wise do-interventions. We study two representative paradigms (i.e., Coconut and CODI) on both mathematical and general reasoning tasks to investigate three key questions: (1) which steps are causally necessary for correctness and when answers become decidable early; (2) how does influence propagate across steps, and how does this structure compare to explicit CoT; and (3) do intermediate trajectories retain competing answer modes, and how does output-level commitment differ from representational commitment across steps. We find that latent-step budgets behave less like homogeneous extra depth and more like staged functionality with non-local routing, and we identify a persistent gap between early output bias and late representational commitment. These results motivate mode-conditional and stability-aware analyses -- and corresponding training/decoding objectives -- as more reliable tools for interpreting and improving latent reasoning systems. Code is available at https://github.com/J1mL1/causal-latent-cot.

Recent approaches to empathetic response generation incorporate emotion causalities to enhance comprehension of both the user's feelings and experiences. However, these approaches suffer from two critical issues. First, they only consider causalities between the user's emotion and the user's experiences, and ignore those between the user's experiences. Second, they neglect interdependence among causalities and reason them independently. To solve the above problems, we expect to reason all plausible causalities interdependently and simultaneously, given the user's emotion, dialogue history, and future dialogue content. Then, we infuse these causalities into response generation for empathetic responses. Specifically, we design a new model, i.e., the Conditional Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (CVGAE), for the causality reasoning, and adopt a multi-source attention mechanism in the decoder for the causality infusion. We name the whole framework as CARE, abbreviated for CAusality Reasoning for Empathetic conversation. Experimental results indicate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in unifying streaming and non-streaming speech recognition models to reduce development, training and deployment cost. The best-known approaches rely on either window-based or dynamic chunk-based attention strategy and causal convolutions to minimize the degradation due to streaming. However, the performance gap still remains relatively large between non-streaming and a full-contextual model trained independently. To address this, we propose a dynamic chunk-based convolution replacing the causal convolution in a hybrid Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC)-Attention Conformer architecture. Additionally, we demonstrate further improvements through initialization of weights from a full-contextual model and parallelization of the convolution and self-attention modules. We evaluate our models on the open-source Voxpopuli, LibriSpeech and in-house conversational datasets. Overall, our proposed model reduces the degradation of the streaming mode over the non-streaming full-contextual model from 41.7% and 45.7% to 16.7% and 26.2% on the LibriSpeech test-clean and test-other datasets respectively, while improving by a relative 15.5% WER over the previous state-of-the-art unified model.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment and policy making. However, research on causal discovery has evolved separately from inference methods, preventing straight-forward combination of methods from both fields. In this work, we develop Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), a single flow-based non-linear additive noise model that takes in observational data and can perform both causal discovery and inference, including conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that DECI can recover the ground truth causal graph under standard causal discovery assumptions. Motivated by application impact, we extend this model to heterogeneous, mixed-type data with missing values, allowing for both continuous and discrete treatment decisions. Our results show the competitive performance of DECI when compared to relevant baselines for both causal discovery and (C)ATE estimation in over a thousand experiments on both synthetic datasets and causal machine learning benchmarks across data-types and levels of missingness.

In standard causal attention, each token's query, key, and value (QKV) are static and encode only preceding context. We introduce CAuSal aTtention with Lookahead kEys (CASTLE), an attention mechanism that continually updates each token's keys as the context unfolds. We term these updated keys lookahead keys because they belong to earlier positions yet integrate information from tokens that appear later relative to those positions, while strictly preserving the autoregressive property. Although the mechanism appears sequential, we derive a mathematical equivalence that avoids explicitly materializing lookahead keys at each position and enables efficient parallel training. On language modeling benchmarks, CASTLE consistently outperforms standard causal attention across model scales, reducing validation perplexity and improving performance on a range of downstream tasks.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Machine unlearning evaluation is structurally skewed: Why-type questions, which probe causal and relational knowledge, comprise less than 0.06% of CounterFact, 0.6% of ZSRE, and less than 1.3% of TOFU, MUSE, and WMDP-Cyber. This near-zero representation means that methods that fail on causal knowledge can score highly in aggregate, and this failure is undetectable without balanced evaluation. We present 5WBENCH, a balanced 5,000-sample benchmark with 1,000 examples per 5W category (Who, What, When, Where, Why), making causal unlearning failures quantifiable for the first time. Using 5WBENCH, we show that no existing baseline simultaneously achieves high forgetting and high retention on Why-type questions: aggressive forgetting degrades retained knowledge, while conservative methods fail to forget causal facts. Why-type difficulty stems from multi-hop reasoning chains (44% of Why entries vs. less than or equal to 2% for others) and gradient dilution over 40.1-token answer spans. We present MAAT (Multi-phase Adapter-Aware Targeted Unlearning), a three-phase framework operating on LoRA adapter weights, combining gradient-projected ascent, SVD rank-dimension pruning, task vector negation, and hybrid KL-hidden-state retain repair. MAAT is the first method to simultaneously achieve high forgetting and high retention on Why-type causal knowledge, reaching a new operating point on the forget-retain Pareto frontier. We make our code publicly available.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm

In our previous work, we introduced CosyVoice, a multilingual speech synthesis model based on supervised discrete speech tokens. By employing progressive semantic decoding with two popular generative models, language models (LMs) and Flow Matching, CosyVoice demonstrated high prosody naturalness, content consistency, and speaker similarity in speech in-context learning. Recently, significant progress has been made in multi-modal large language models (LLMs), where the response latency and real-time factor of speech synthesis play a crucial role in the interactive experience. Therefore, in this report, we present an improved streaming speech synthesis model, CosyVoice 2, which incorporates comprehensive and systematic optimizations. Specifically, we introduce finite-scalar quantization to improve the codebook utilization of speech tokens. For the text-speech LM, we streamline the model architecture to allow direct use of a pre-trained LLM as the backbone. In addition, we develop a chunk-aware causal flow matching model to support various synthesis scenarios, enabling both streaming and non-streaming synthesis within a single model. By training on a large-scale multilingual dataset, CosyVoice 2 achieves human-parity naturalness, minimal response latency, and virtually lossless synthesis quality in the streaming mode. We invite readers to listen to the demos at https://funaudiollm.github.io/cosyvoice2.

Autoregressive (AR) generation is the standard decoding paradigm for Large Language Models (LLMs), but its token-by-token nature limits parallelism at inference time. Diffusion Language Models (DLLMs) offer parallel decoding by recovering multiple masked tokens per step; however, in practice they often fail to translate this parallelism into deployment speed gains over optimized AR engines (e.g., vLLM). A key reason is that many DLLMs rely on bidirectional attention, which breaks standard prefix KV caching and forces repeated contextualization, undermining efficiency. We propose WeDLM, a diffusion decoding framework built entirely on standard causal attention to make parallel generation prefix-cache friendly. The core idea is to let each masked position condition on all currently observed tokens while keeping a strict causal mask, achieved by Topological Reordering that moves observed tokens to the physical prefix while preserving their logical positions. Building on this property, we introduce a streaming decoding procedure that continuously commits confident tokens into a growing left-to-right prefix and maintains a fixed parallel workload, avoiding the stop-and-wait behavior common in block diffusion methods. Experiments show that WeDLM preserves the quality of strong AR backbones while delivering substantial speedups, approaching 3x on challenging reasoning benchmarks and up to 10x in low-entropy generation regimes; critically, our comparisons are against AR baselines served by vLLM under matched deployment settings, demonstrating that diffusion-style decoding can outperform an optimized AR engine in practice.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Block Diffusion Models (BDMs) support parallel generation, flexible-length output, and KV caching, making them promising for efficient document parsing. However, existing BDMs bind denoising and cache commitment to fixed block boundaries: parallelism shrinks during intra-block denoising, while generated tokens cannot be cached until the whole block is completed. Moreover, intra-block bidirectional denoising conflicts with inter-block autoregression, creating inconsistent information flow that can challenge structure-sensitive recognition. We propose the Prefix-Adaptive Block Diffusion Model (PA-BDM), which replaces intra-block bidirectional denoising with causal denoising from prefix to suffix and treats the block size as a maximum candidate range rather than a fixed commitment unit. PA-BDM uses Confidence-gated Structural Loss (CSL) to build low-entropy prefixes before extending training to longer continuations. During inference, Progressive Prefix Commitment (PPC) then dynamically commits the longest reliable prefix into the KV cache and resets the next candidate range from the updated prefix, restoring a large parallel decoding space at each step. Experiments show that the 3B PA-BDM achieves higher recognition scores on several benchmarks and improves inference throughput by 71.6\% over the 2.5B MinerU-Diffusion.

Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low and high-dimensional synthetic datasets, and real-world datasets such as METABRIC and GBSG. We demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other survival analysis baselines such as Cox Proportional Hazards, DeepSurv and Deephit, which are oblivious to the underlying causal relationship between data entities.

To achieve real-time interactive video generation, current methods distill pretrained bidirectional video diffusion models into few-step autoregressive (AR) models, facing an architectural gap when full attention is replaced by causal attention. However, existing approaches do not bridge this gap theoretically. They initialize the AR student via ODE distillation, which requires frame-level injectivity, where each noisy frame must map to a unique clean frame under the PF-ODE of an AR teacher. Distilling an AR student from a bidirectional teacher violates this condition, preventing recovery of the teacher's flow map and instead inducing a conditional-expectation solution, which degrades performance. To address this issue, we propose Causal Forcing that uses an AR teacher for ODE initialization, thereby bridging the architectural gap. Empirical results show that our method outperforms all baselines across all metrics, surpassing the SOTA Self Forcing by 19.3\% in Dynamic Degree, 8.7\% in VisionReward, and 16.7\% in Instruction Following. Project page and the code: https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/{https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/}

Causal reasoning is viewed as crucial for achieving human-level machine intelligence. Recent advances in language models have expanded the horizons of artificial intelligence across various domains, sparking inquiries into their potential for causal reasoning. In this work, we introduce Causal evaluation of Language Models (CaLM), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the causal reasoning capabilities of language models. First, we propose the CaLM framework, which establishes a foundational taxonomy consisting of four modules: causal target (i.e., what to evaluate), adaptation (i.e., how to obtain the results), metric (i.e., how to measure the results), and error (i.e., how to analyze the bad results). This taxonomy defines a broad evaluation design space while systematically selecting criteria and priorities. Second, we compose the CaLM dataset, comprising 126,334 data samples, to provide curated sets of causal targets, adaptations, metrics, and errors, offering extensive coverage for diverse research pursuits. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of 28 leading language models on a core set of 92 causal targets, 9 adaptations, 7 metrics, and 12 error types. Fourth, we perform detailed analyses of the evaluation results across various dimensions (e.g., adaptation, scale). Fifth, we present 50 high-level empirical findings across 9 dimensions (e.g., model), providing valuable guidance for future language model development. Finally, we develop a multifaceted platform, including a website, leaderboards, datasets, and toolkits, to support scalable and adaptable assessments. We envision CaLM as an ever-evolving benchmark for the community, systematically updated with new causal targets, adaptations, models, metrics, and error types to reflect ongoing research advancements. Project website is at https://opencausalab.github.io/CaLM.

Fragmentation is a routine part of communication in 6LoWPAN-based IoT networks, designed to accommodate small frame sizes on constrained wireless links. However, this process introduces a critical vulnerability fragments are typically stored and processed before their legitimacy is confirmed, allowing attackers to exploit this gap with minimal effort. In this work, we explore a defense strategy that takes a more adaptive, behavior-aware approach to this problem. Our system, called Predictive-CSM, introduces a combination of two lightweight mechanisms. The first tracks how each node behaves over time, rewarding consistent and successful interactions while quickly penalizing suspicious or failing patterns. The second checks the integrity of packet fragments using a chained hash, allowing incomplete or manipulated sequences to be caught early, before they can occupy memory or waste processing time. We put this system to the test using a set of targeted attack simulations, including early fragment injection, replayed headers, and flooding with fake data. Across all scenarios, Predictive CSM preserved network delivery and maintained energy efficiency, even under pressure. Rather than relying on heavyweight cryptography or rigid filters, this approach allows constrained de vices to adapt their defenses in real time based on what they observe, not just what they're told. In that way, it offers a step forward for securing fragmented communication in real world IoT systems

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Causal Transformer language models suffer from strictly sequential decoding and a quadratic per-step attention cost. While linear-time causal models and discrete diffusion models each address these weaknesses, their integration remains inherently inconsistent: diffusion requires bidirectional attention, while causal models are unidirectional. To unify these architectures, we propose B^3D-RWKV, a diffusion RWKV variant that integrates the model's O(L) inference efficiency with parallel, bidirectional discrete-diffusion through a triplet-block layout method. B^3D-RWKV-7.2B reaches comparable accuracy on an 8-task suite versus existing models while significantly outperforming baselines in decoding throughput with an average of 1.6times speedup.

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with σ-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

The effectiveness of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is highly dependent on how documents are chunked, that is, segmented into smaller units for indexing and retrieval. Yet, commonly used "one-size-fits-all" approaches often fail to capture the nuanced structure and semantics of diverse texts. Despite its central role, chunking lacks a dedicated evaluation framework, making it difficult to assess and compare strategies independently of downstream performance. We challenge this paradigm by introducing Adaptive Chunking, a framework that selects the most suitable chunking strategy for each document based on a set of five novel intrinsic, document-based metrics: References Completeness (RC), Intrachunk Cohesion (ICC), Document Contextual Coherence (DCC), Block Integrity (BI), and Size Compliance (SC), which directly assess chunking quality across key dimensions. To support this framework, we also introduce two new chunkers, an LLM-regex splitter and a split-then-merge recursive splitter, alongside targeted post-processing techniques. On a diverse corpus spanning legal, technical, and social science domains, our metric-guided adaptive method significantly improves downstream RAG performance. Without changing models or prompts, our framework increases RAG outcomes, raising answers correctness to 72% (from 62-64%) and increasing the number of successfully answered questions by over 30% (65 vs. 49). These results demonstrate that adaptive, document-aware chunking, guided by a complementary suite of intrinsic metrics, offers a practical and effective path to more robust RAG systems. Code available at https://github.com/ekimetrics/adaptive-chunking.

Multi-server MCP agents create an information-flow control problem: faithful tool composition can turn individually benign read/write permissions into cross-boundary credential propagation -- a structural side effect of workflow topology, not necessarily malicious model behavior. We present MCPHunt, to our knowledge the first controlled benchmark that isolates non-adversarial, verbatim credential propagation across multi-server MCP trust boundaries, with three methodological contributions: (1) canary-based taint tracking that reduces propagation detection to objective string matching; (2) an environment-controlled coverage design with risky, benign, and hard-negative conditions that validates pipeline soundness and controls for credential-format confounds; (3) CRS stratification that disentangles task-mandated propagation (faithful execution of verbatim-transfer instructions) from policy-violating propagation (credentials included despite the option to redact). Across 3,615 main-benchmark traces from 5 models spanning 147 tasks and 9 mechanism families, policy-violating propagation rates reach 11.5--41.3% across all models. This propagation is pathway-specific (25x cross-mechanism range) and concentrated in browser-mediated data flows; hard-negative controls provide evidence that production-format credentials are not necessary -- prompt-directed cross-boundary data flow is sufficient. A prompt-mitigation study across 3 models reduces policy-violating propagation by up to 97% while preserving 80.5% utility, but effectiveness varies with instruction-following capability -- suggesting that prompt-level defenses alone may not suffice. Code, traces, and labeling pipeline are released under MIT and CC BY 4.0.

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

We propose a method to control the attributes of Language Models (LMs) for the text generation task using Causal Average Treatment Effect (ATE) scores and counterfactual augmentation. We explore this method, in the context of LM detoxification, and propose the Causally Fair Language (CFL) architecture for detoxifying pre-trained LMs in a plug-and-play manner. Our architecture is based on a Structural Causal Model (SCM) that is mathematically transparent and computationally efficient as compared with many existing detoxification techniques. We also propose several new metrics that aim to better understand the behaviour of LMs in the context of toxic text generation. Further, we achieve state of the art performance for toxic degeneration, which are computed using \RTP (RTP) benchmark. Our experiments show that CFL achieves such a detoxification without much impact on the model perplexity. We also show that CFL mitigates the unintended bias problem through experiments on the BOLD dataset.

Modern Language Models (LMs) owe much of their success to masked causal attention, the backbone of Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models. Although GPTs can process the entire user prompt at once, the causal masking is applied to all input tokens step-by-step, mimicking the generation process. This imposes an unnecessary constraint during the initial "prefill" phase when the model processes the input prompt and generates the internal representations before producing any output tokens. In this work, attention is masked based on the known block structure at the prefill phase, followed by the conventional token-by-token autoregressive process after that. For example, in a typical chat prompt, the system prompt is treated as one block, and the user prompt as the next one. Each of these is treated as a unit for the purpose of masking, such that the first tokens in each block can access the subsequent tokens in a non-causal manner. Then, the model answer is generated in the conventional causal manner. This Segment-by-Segment scheme entails no additional computational overhead. When integrating it into models such as Llama and Qwen, state-of-the-art performance is consistently achieved.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Standard transport protocols like TCP operate as a blind, FIFO conveyor belt for data, a model that is increasingly suboptimal for latency-sensitive and interactive applications. This paper challenges this model by introducing CATS (Conductor-driven Asymmetric Transport Scheme), a framework that provides TCP with the semantic awareness necessary to prioritize critical content. By centralizing scheduling intelligence in a transport-native "Conductor", CATS significantly improves user-perceived performance by delivering essential data first. This architecture directly confronts a cascade of historical performance workarounds and their limitations, including the high overhead of parallel connections in HTTP/1.1, the transport-layer Head-of-Line blocking in HTTP/2, and the observed implementation heterogeneity of prioritization in HTTP/3 over QUIC. Built upon TCP BBR, our ns-3 implementation demonstrates this principle by reducing the First Contentful Paint by over 78% in a representative webpage download configured as a deliberate worst-case scenario, with no penalty to total page load time compared to the baseline.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) traces have been shown to improve performance of large language models on a plethora of reasoning tasks, yet there is no consensus on the mechanism by which this boost is achieved. To shed more light on this, we introduce Causal CoT Graphs (CCGraphs), which are directed acyclic graphs automatically extracted from reasoning traces that model fine-grained causal dependencies in language-model outputs. A collection of 1671 mathematical reasoning problems from MATH500, GSM8K, and AIME, together with their associated CCGraphs, has been compiled into our dataset -- KisMATH. Our detailed empirical analysis with 15 open-weight LLMs shows that (i) reasoning nodes in the CCGraphs are causal contributors to the final answer, which we argue is constitutive of reasoning; and (ii) LLMs emphasize the reasoning paths captured by the CCGraphs, indicating that the models internally realize structures similar to our graphs. KisMATH enables controlled, graph-aligned interventions and opens avenues for further investigation into the role of CoT in LLM reasoning.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

Recent advances in spoken dialogue language models (SDLMs) reflect growing interest in shifting from turn-based to full-duplex systems, where the models continuously perceive user speech streams while generating responses. This simultaneous listening and speaking design enables real-time interaction and the agent can handle dynamic conversational behaviors like user barge-in. However, during the listening phase, existing systems keep the agent idle by repeatedly predicting the silence token, which departs from human behavior: we usually engage in lightweight thinking during conversation rather than remaining absent-minded. Inspired by this, we propose Chronological Thinking, a on-the-fly conversational thinking mechanism that aims to improve response quality in full-duplex SDLMs. Specifically, chronological thinking presents a paradigm shift from conventional LLM thinking approaches, such as Chain-of-Thought, purpose-built for streaming acoustic input. (1) Strictly causal: the agent reasons incrementally while listening, updating internal hypotheses only from past audio with no lookahead. (2) No additional latency: reasoning is amortized during the listening window; once the user stops speaking, the agent halts thinking and begins speaking without further delay. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of chronological thinking through both objective metrics and human evaluations show consistent improvements in response quality. Furthermore, chronological thinking robustly handles conversational dynamics and attains competitive performance on full-duplex interaction metrics.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning improves multi-step mathematical problem solving in large language models but remains vulnerable to exposure bias and error accumulation, as early mistakes propagate irreversibly through autoregressive decoding. In this work, we propose DiffCoT, a diffusion-styled CoT framework that reformulates CoT reasoning as an iterative denoising process. DiffCoT integrates diffusion principles at the reasoning-step level via a sliding-window mechanism, enabling unified generation and retrospective correction of intermediate steps while preserving token-level autoregression. To maintain causal consistency, we further introduce a causal diffusion noise schedule that respects the temporal structure of reasoning chains. Extensive experiments on three multi-step CoT reasoning benchmarks across diverse model backbones demonstrate that DiffCoT consistently outperforms existing CoT preference optimization methods, yielding improved robustness and error-correction capability in CoT reasoning.

Camera-controlled video-to-video (V2V) generation enables dynamic viewpoint synthesis from monocular footage, holding immense potential for interactive filmmaking and live broadcasting. However, existing implicit synthesis methods fundamentally rely on non-causal, full-sequence processing and rigid prefix-style temporal concatenation. This architectural paradigm mandates bidirectional attention, resulting in prohibitive computational latency, quadratic complexity scaling, and inherent incompatibility with real-time streaming or variable-length inputs. To overcome these limitations, we introduce RealCam, a novel autoregressive framework for interactive, real-time camera-controlled V2V generation. We first design a high-fidelity teacher model grounded in a Cross-frame In-context Learning paradigm. By interleaving source and target frames into synchronized contextual pairs, our design inherently enables length-agnostic generalization and naturally facilitates causal adaptation, breaking the rigid prefix bottleneck. We then distill this teacher into a few-step causal student via Self-Forcing with Distribution Matching Distillation, enabling efficient, on-the-fly streaming synthesis. Furthermore, to mitigate severe loop inconsistency in closed-loop trajectories, we propose Loop-Closed Data Augmentation (LoopAug), a novel paradigm that synthesizes globally consistent loop sequences from existing multiview datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RealCam achieves state-of-the-art visual fidelity and temporal consistency while enabling truly interactive camera control with orders-of-magnitude faster inference than existing paradigms. Our project page is at https://xyc-fly.github.io/RealCam/.

The rapid expansion of interconnected devices, autonomous systems, and AI applications has created severe fragmentation in adaptive transport systems, where diverse protocols and context sources remain isolated. This survey provides the first systematic investigation of the Model Context Protocol (MCP) as a unifying paradigm, highlighting its ability to bridge protocol-level adaptation with context-aware decision making. Analyzing established literature, we show that existing efforts have implicitly converged toward MCP-like architectures, signaling a natural evolution from fragmented solutions to standardized integration frameworks. We propose a five-category taxonomy covering adaptive mechanisms, context-aware frameworks, unification models, integration strategies, and MCP-enabled architectures. Our findings reveal three key insights: traditional transport protocols have reached the limits of isolated adaptation, MCP's client-server and JSON-RPC structure enables semantic interoperability, and AI-driven transport demands integration paradigms uniquely suited to MCP. Finally, we present a research roadmap positioning MCP as a foundation for next-generation adaptive, context-aware, and intelligent transport infrastructures.

Autoregressive (AR) language models and Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) constitute the two principal paradigms of large language models. However, both paradigms suffer from insufficient reasoning capabilities. Human reasoning inherently relies on causal knowledge and thought, which are reflected in natural language. But in the AR paradigm, language is modeled as next token prediction (a strictly left-to-right, token-by-token order), whereas natural language itself exhibits more flexible causal structures. In the DLM paradigm, the attention mechanism is fully connected, which entirely disregards causal order. To fill this gap, we propose a \textbf{C}ausal \textbf{C}oncept-Guided \textbf{D}iffusion \textbf{L}anguage \textbf{M}odel (C^2DLM). Starting from DLM's fully connected attention, C^2DLM first obtains a concept-level causal graph from the teacher model, and then explicitly guides attention to learn causal relationships between concepts. By focusing on causal relationships and avoiding interference from difficult subgoals involving causal inversion, C^2DLM improves 12\% with about 3.2 times training speedup in the COT-OrderPerturb task, and achieves an average gain of 1.31\% across six downstream reasoning tasks. More details in the repository ~https://github.com/Kairong-Han/C-2-DLM{here}.

Large Language Model or LLM inference has two phases, the prompt (or prefill) phase to output the first token and the extension (or decoding) phase to the generate subsequent tokens. In this work, we propose an efficient parallelization scheme, KV-Runahead to accelerate the prompt phase. The key observation is that the extension phase generates tokens faster than the prompt phase because of key-value cache (KV-cache). Hence, KV-Runahead parallelizes the prompt phase by orchestrating multiple processes to populate the KV-cache and minimizes the time-to-first-token (TTFT). Dual-purposing the KV-cache scheme has two main benefits. Fist, since KV-cache is designed to leverage the causal attention map, we minimize computation and computation automatically. Second, since it already exists for the exten- sion phase, KV-Runahead is easy to implement. We further propose context-level load-balancing to handle uneven KV-cache generation (due to the causal attention) and to optimize TTFT. Compared with an existing parallelization scheme such as tensor or sequential parallelization where keys and values are locally generated and exchanged via all-gather collectives, our experimental results demonstrate that KV-Runahead can offer over 1.4x and 1.6x speedups for Llama 7B and Falcon 7B respectively.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

We assess the ability of large language models (LLMs) to answer causal questions by analyzing their strengths and weaknesses against three types of causal question. We believe that current LLMs can answer causal questions with existing causal knowledge as combined domain experts. However, they are not yet able to provide satisfactory answers for discovering new knowledge or for high-stakes decision-making tasks with high precision. We discuss possible future directions and opportunities, such as enabling explicit and implicit causal modules as well as deep causal-aware LLMs. These will not only enable LLMs to answer many different types of causal questions for greater impact but also enable LLMs to be more trustworthy and efficient in general.

Large Language Model (LLM)-driven Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) have demonstrated strong capability in complex reasoning and tool use, and heterogeneous agent pools further broaden the quality--cost trade-off space. Despite these advances, real-world deployment is often constrained by high inference cost, latency, and limited transparency, which hinders scalable and efficient routing. Existing routing strategies typically rely on expensive LLM-based selectors or static policies, and offer limited controllability for semantic-aware routing under dynamic loads and mixed intents, often resulting in unstable performance and inefficient resource utilization. To address these limitations, we propose AMRO-S, an efficient and interpretable routing framework for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). AMRO-S models MAS routing as a semantic-conditioned path selection problem, enhancing routing performance through three key mechanisms: First, it leverages a supervised fine-tuned (SFT) small language model for intent inference, providing a low-overhead semantic interface for each query; second, it decomposes routing memory into task-specific pheromone specialists, reducing cross-task interference and optimizing path selection under mixed workloads; finally, it employs a quality-gated asynchronous update mechanism to decouple inference from learning, optimizing routing without increasing latency. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks and high-concurrency stress tests demonstrate that AMRO-S consistently improves the quality--cost trade-off over strong routing baselines, while providing traceable routing evidence through structured pheromone patterns.